Thursday 22 October › Southwell › 17:30
Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap
Class 5? Handicap? 1m 3f 23y? Standard? 4YO plus · 11 ran £3,716 to the winner Light rain
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:49 BST · #ceeca8 · updated 17:27 BST (v2)
A muddling handicap with no runner strong enough to back with real confidence.
None of today's fancied runners show a clear enough edge over their price to justify a confident recommendation. There are a couple of interesting cases, but not strong enough to back with conviction.
How the race should unfold No obvious pace-setter: the usual front-runner is well below its best, so the lead is likely to shift during the race. The market favourite's stable has been short of winners lately, leaving a question mark over it, while one class-dropper looks capable of running better than its position in the betting suggests.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Celestias Comet Sent off the market favourite, but its stable has gone a long run without a winner, so the chance here looks a touch overstated.
16% / 18%
2
Mao Shang Wong A model of consistency with a trainer-jockey combination that clicks well, though it has been known to find little when asked for an effort.
14% / 14%
3
Flightofthephoenix Three narrow near-misses in similar company, with a slow start used to explain away the latest defeat, though the case isn't overwhelming.
12% / 14%
4
Optician Drops into an easier class after two close efforts at a tougher level, and looks capable of outrunning its current position in the betting.
11% / 8%
5
Everyoneknowsadave Has won over this course and distance before and drops in grade today, but its stable has been firmly out of form.
9% / 11%
Red flags The favourite's stable has gone winless through a long run of recent starts. Another contender's yard is also out of form despite decent course-and-distance form on paper. No clear leader in the race, so the shape and pace are hard to predict.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Southwell 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led 1.08 1.70 — Prominent 1.14 1.16 1.06 Mid-div 0.58 1.12 0.95 Held up 0.67 0.95 0.75
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 28.24s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Celestias Comet — 9th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (1)
2 1 4 2 8 6
J George Wood 3%
T Jessica Macey 0/8
9% / 12%
7.80 8.00
4 wins from 27 · placed 10
Course winner: 2 wins from 10 here
Last ran 29 days ago
Trainer Jessica Macey: 0/8 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey George Wood: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/14 Trip 1m1f+: 2/18 Course AW: 3/14 Class C5: 4/22 Field 9–12: 2/16
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 9% · market 12%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
2 (5)
0 2 7 5 2 3
J Cieren Fallon 12%
T D O'Meara 5/44
14% / 9%
11.5 12.0
3 wins from 19 · placed 8
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 36 days ago
Trainer D O'Meara: 5/44 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Cieren Fallon: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/12 Trip 1m1f+: 3/16 Course AW: 1/12 Class C5: 2/13 Field 9–12: 1/11
Our chance 14% · market 9%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
3 (4)
5 2 9 3 2 0
J Jason Hart 11%
T M Herrington 6/17
11% / 16%
6.00 6.20
6 wins from 41 · placed 19
4 runs here without a win
Last ran 12 days ago
Trainer M Herrington: 6/17 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jason Hart: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 6/21 Trip 1m1f+: 7/38 Course AW: 6/21 Class C5: 2/15 Field 9–12: 3/17
Our chance 11% · market 16%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
4 (10)
3 5 3 6 3 4
J Jason Watson 8%
T Dan Horsford 0/3
— / 15%
6.40 6.60
0 wins from 8 · placed 3
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer Dan Horsford: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jason Watson: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/8 Course AW: 0/2 Class C5: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/5
Spotted wrong data? Report it
5 (7)
2 1 1 6 3 4
J Finley Marsh 6%
T Charles Hills 2/12
12% / 12%
8.20 8.60
2 wins from 17 · placed 9
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Last ran 12 days ago
Trainer Charles Hills: 2/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Finley Marsh: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/13 Trip 1m1f+: 2/13 Course AW: 1/13 Class C5: 2/16 Field 9–12: 1/12
Our chance 12% · market 12%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
6 (9)
6 5 5 1 7 2
J D Egan 17%
T J R Fanshawe 1/14
16% / 17%
5.70 5.90
2 wins from 12 · placed 5
Course winner: 1 win from 2 here
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer J R Fanshawe: 1/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Egan: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/5 Trip 1m1f+: 1/7 Course AW: 1/5 Class C5: 2/8 Field 9–12: 0/5
3 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 16% · market 17%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
7 (11)
1 6 6 5 3 4
J Dougie Costello 0%
T Marcus Tregoning 0/6
— / 2%
40.0 46.0
4 wins from 22 · placed 11
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 49 days ago
Trainer Marcus Tregoning: 0/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Dougie Costello: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 2/7 Trip 1m1f+: 4/17 Course AW: 2/7 Class C5: 4/15 Field 9–12: 1/8
Spotted wrong data? Report it
8 (2)
9 5 3 7 0 8
J Rose Dawes (3) 17%
T Jack Channon 1/10
— / 2%
44.0 50.0
5 wins from 17 · placed 8
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 23 days ago
Trainer Jack Channon: 1/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rose Dawes: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/4 Trip 1m1f+: 5/16 Course AW: 1/4 Class C5: 1/7 Field 9–12: 4/10
Spotted wrong data? Report it
9 (6)
3 8 6 8 8 5
J Ryan Sexton 22%
T Miss J A Camacho 1/20
— / 2%
50.0 55.0
0 wins from 5 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer Miss J A Camacho: 1/20 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ryan Sexton: 22% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 0/6 Course AW: 0/5 Class C5: 0/3 Field 9–12: 0/5
Spotted wrong data? Report it
10 (8)
8 7 9 0 4 8
J Daniel Muscutt 15%
T Kevin & Lauren Frost 0/21
— / 7%
14.5 15.0
5 wins from 46 · placed 17
Course winner: 1 win from 5 here
Last ran 29 days ago
Trainer Kevin & Lauren Frost: 0/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Daniel Muscutt: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/22 Trip 1m1f+: 4/38 Course AW: 3/22 Class C5: 1/10 Field 9–12: 2/19
Spotted wrong data? Report it
11 (3)
3 6 3 3 1 4
J Paddy Bradley 4%
T P Morris 1/9
— / 5%
20.0 22.0
4 wins from 49 · placed 19
Course winner: 1 win from 5 here
Last ran 23 days ago
Trainer P Morris: 1/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Paddy Bradley: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 2/35 Trip 1m1f+: 3/43 Course AW: 2/35 Class C5: 1/27 Field 9–12: 3/25
Spotted wrong data? Report it