Thursday 1 October › Nottingham › 16:18
Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap
Class 5? Handicap? 1m 2f 50y? Good-good to firm in places · GoingStick 6.5? 3YO plus · 14 ran £4,449 to the winner Sunny intervals
6 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:13 BST · #26157f · updated 15:33 BST (v2)
A wide-open handicap at Nottingham where no horse offers a clear enough edge to back.
None of the contenders combine strong enough form with a fair price — the ones with the best recent form carry extra weight or have drifted sharply, and the horse closest to fair value doesn't offer enough of an edge to be worth backing.
How the race should unfold Several horses like to lead, so the pace looks fast and should help those held up behind it — a pattern that already played out in earlier races at this meeting. The form horses either carry the top weight in a big field or have seen their price drift sharply beforehand, both of which add doubt rather than confidence.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Mohaab Carries the least weight in the field, was close to the frame last time in a strong race, has won at this course and distance, and races the right way for a fast pace.
13% / 11%
2
Celestias Comet The market's favourite, but shoulders top weight in a large field, has only a modest edge in ability and dipped well below its best last time out.
12% / 12%
3
Renesmee A winner over this course and distance, fresh from a short break and races in a style that should suit, though a wide draw and limited recent stable form add uncertainty.
8% / 8%
4
Crimson Road In good recent form but shares the same top weight as the favourite in a big field, and its price has drifted a lot since the morning.
7% / 9%
5
Garden Oasis A proven front-runner, but today's pace looks set to favour those held up rather than out in front, and its price has also drifted noticeably.
6% / 10%
Red flags Horses carrying the top weight in such a big field have a poor record of winning. A sharp drift in price before the race can be a warning sign the market has lost confidence. A fast, contested pace could leave the front-running types vulnerable late on.
Expert confidence? 6 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Nottingham 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 0.84 0.68 0.90 Held up — 1.28 0.82
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 08.39s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Mohaab — 8th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (3)
6 6 5 5 1 7 J Jonny Peate 0% T J R Fanshawe 5/13 12% / 16% 6.20 6.40
2 wins from 11 · placed 4
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Returns from a 64-day break
Trainer J R Fanshawe: 5/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jonny Peate: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 1/6 Course Galloping: 1/6 Class C5: 2/7 Field 13+: 0/3
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 12% · market 16%
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2 (1)
5 9 4 1 1 1 J Adam Wedge 20% T John & Rhys Flint 0/3 7% / 6% 17.5 18.0
5 wins from 26 · placed 9
Won 5 of 13 at around this trip
Last ran 38 days ago
Trainer John & Rhys Flint: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Adam Wedge: 20% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/8 Trip 1m1f+: 5/16 Course Galloping: 3/15 Class C5: 1/7 Field 13+: 0/3
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 7% · market 6%
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3 (13)
6 0 6 5 8 2 J K S McHugh (7) 0% T Michael Keady 1/6 8% / 9% 10.5 11.5
6 wins from 52 · placed 22
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer Michael Keady: 1/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey K S McHugh: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/11 Trip 1m1f+: 4/22 Course Galloping: 2/18 Class C5: 3/35 Field 13+: 0/8
Our chance 8% · market 9%
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4 (7)
3 3 1 3 8 5 J Taryn Langley (5) 22% T Joey Ramsden 2/10 — / 3% 29.0 32.0
6 wins from 50 · placed 22
4 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 6 days ago
Trainer Joey Ramsden: 2/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Taryn Langley: 22% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 3/13 Trip 1m1f+: 5/40 Course Galloping: 5/17 Class C5: 2/16 Field 13+: 1/7
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5 (8)
4 3 6 J Alistair Rawlinson 9% T Edward Smyth-Osbourne 0/4 — / 1% 80.0 100.0
2 wins from 9 · placed 3
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 162-day break
Trainer Edward Smyth-Osbourne: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Alistair Rawlinson: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/7 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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6 (12)
3 6 7 1 3 5 J Jack Dace (5) 7% T Gihan Arnolda 0/5 — / 7% 14.0 14.5
1 win from 20 · placed 6
Course winner: 1 win from 2 here
Last ran 56 days ago
Trainer Gihan Arnolda: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Dace: 7% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 1/16 Course Galloping: 1/16 Class C5: 0/18 Field 13+: 0/1
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7 (2)
4 2 3 3 7 5 J D Allan 17% T T D Easterby 14/78 6% / 11% 8.60 9.00
13 wins from 84 · placed 34
Won 1 of 8 at around this trip
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer T D Easterby: 14/78 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Allan: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 6/38 Trip 1m1f+: 1/14 Course Galloping: 5/23 Class C5: 3/12 Field 13+: 1/20
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 6% · market 11%
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8 (14)
8 5 8 3 5 8 J Joanna Mason 10% T Dylan Cunha 3/23 — / 10% 10.0 10.5
6 wins from 40 · placed 15
Course winner: 3 wins from 6 here
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer Dylan Cunha: 3/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Joanna Mason: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/10 Trip 1m1f+: 6/36 Course Galloping: 5/29 Class C5: 3/21 Field 13+: 0/9
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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9 (11)
2 3 2 0 6 0 J Ray Dawson 9% T M Appleby 6/27 — / 8% 11.5 12.0
0 wins from 9 · placed 4
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer M Appleby: 6/27 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ray Dawson: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/8 Course Galloping: 0/4 Class C5: 0/7 Field 13+: 0/3
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10 (6)
8 5 8 7 3 6 J S M Levey 11% T Jessica Macey 0/7 — / 3% 36.0 40.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 31 days ago
Trainer Jessica Macey: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey S M Levey: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/2 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C5: 0/4 Field 13+: 0/1
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11 (10)
2 4 3 J Marco Ghiani 3% T Stuart Williams 5/28 — / 3% 30.0 34.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 31 days ago
Trainer Stuart Williams: 5/28 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Marco Ghiani: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/3 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C5: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/1
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12 (9)
3 9 3 2 5 5 J Liam Wright (3) 12% T M Crawley 0/5 — / 4% 25.0 27.0
2 wins from 17 · placed 9
2 runs here without a win
Last ran 24 days ago
Trainer M Crawley: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Liam Wright: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/6 Trip 1m1f+: 1/7 Course Galloping: 0/8 Class C5: 0/9 Field 13+: 0/1
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13 (4)
1 6 3 8 1 5 J Alec Voikhansky 8% T Lawrence Mullaney 1/4 — / 6% 17.5 18.5
3 wins from 27 · placed 12
Won 1 of 11 at around this trip
Last ran 23 days ago
Trainer Lawrence Mullaney: 1/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Alec Voikhansky: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/6 Trip 1m1f+: 3/24 Course Galloping: 0/14 Class C5: 1/11 Field 13+: 0/3
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14 (5)
1 4 2 7 0 6 J David Probert 4% T William Muir & Chris Grassick 2/24 13% / 14% 6.80 7.00
1 win from 15 · placed 3
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer William Muir & Chris Grassick: 2/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey David Probert: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 1/8 Course Galloping: 1/4 Class C5: 0/8 Field 13+: 0/2
Our chance 13% · market 14%
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