Today › Leicester › 16:24
AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap
Class 6? Handicap? 1m 3f 179y? Heavy · GoingStick 4.9? 3YO plus · 13 ran £2,980 to the winner Overcast
3 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 10:20 GMT · #adc039 · updated 15:41 GMT (v2)
A messy, stamina-sapping test on heavy ground leaves no bet worth taking here.
Beyond the strongest fancy, the other contenders don't offer enough of an edge over the market to back: some show only a small gap to the current odds with no clear reasoning behind it, and the horse bouncing back from a poor run comes from an angle with a disappointing recent history. With no second case standing up to scrutiny, we're passing on this race.
How the race should unfold With no confirmed pace-setter in the field, the early gallop looks likely to be uneven over this long trip. Heavy ground will sap energy late, so the finish should go to whoever conserves the most for the closing stages rather than whoever leads early.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Kotari Drops in class and already has a course-and-distance win, but the big weight she carries and a possibly too-fast recent run are real concerns on this soft, tiring ground.
33% / 33%
2
Wrist Art Comes from a yard in excellent recent form, carries a light weight, was close up last time out and has a solid record against several of today's rivals.
12% / 9%
3
Glitter Code Has performed well at this level before and holds a fair record against today's field, though there is little to clearly set her apart from how she is currently rated.
10% / 9%
4
Good Onya Mate Well fancied, but the stable is out of form, the jockey's recent strike rate is poor, and carrying a big weight adds to the doubts.
8% / 11%
5
Si White Form dropped sharply last time, with a reasonable explanation offered, and he has won over this trip before, though confidence in this type of case is limited.
8% / 8%
Red flags The market leader carries top weight on testing ground over a long trip, which could blunt her finish. The uneven pace makes it hard to know which running style will be favoured. One recovery angle being considered has a weak recent track record, adding doubt.
Expert confidence? 3 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Leicester 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 1.09 0.31 1.62 Held up — 1.57 0.81
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 51.70s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Kotari — 3rd.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (5)
2 0 4 4 3 7
J Mr Jack Lander
T M L W Bell 1/21
8% / 14%
7.20 7.40
0 wins from 11 · placed 2
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 31 days ago
Trainer M L W Bell: 1/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/0 Trip 1m1f+: 0/9 Course Galloping: 0/5 Class C6+: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/6
Our chance 8% · market 14%
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2 (2)
5 4 6 5 2 5
J Mr Cian Murphy 0%
T Jamie Moore & Josh Moore 0/4
33% / 34%
2.94 2.96
3 wins from 29 · placed 7
Won 1 of 8 at around this trip
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer Jamie Moore & Josh Moore: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Cian Murphy: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 1/6 Trip 1m1f+: 3/20 Course Galloping: 2/10 Class C6+: 0/0 Field 13+: 2/10
2 experts tipped this horse
Our chance 33% · market 34%
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3 (9)
2 0 7 6 1 4
J Miss Nell Biker
T W J Knight 0/10
10% / 12%
8.00 8.20
1 win from 25 · placed 9
1 run here without a win
Last ran 39 days ago
Trainer W J Knight: 0/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 1/15 Course Galloping: 0/8 Class C6+: 1/14 Field 13+: 0/3
Our chance 10% · market 12%
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4 (4)
9 2 2 7 6 5
J Mr Hezekiah March (3) 0%
T Jamie Moore & Josh Moore 0/4
— / 2%
38.0 42.0
0 wins from 15 · placed 6
4 runs at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 119-day break
Trainer Jamie Moore & Josh Moore: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Hezekiah March: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 0/8 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/0
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5 (8)
9 6 1 3 5 6
J Mr Morgan Tidman (3) 0%
T Sir Mark Prescott Bt 3/27
8% / 6%
17.0 17.5
1 win from 7 · placed 2
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 55 days ago
Trainer Sir Mark Prescott Bt: 3/27 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Morgan Tidman: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/0 Trip 1m1f+: 1/5 Course Galloping: 0/0 Class C6+: 1/4 Field 13+: 0/0
Our chance 8% · market 6%
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6 (3)
4 8 6 5 6 8
J Miss Louise Chance 0%
T David Flood 0/3
— / 7%
13.5 14.0
3 wins from 21 · placed 6
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Last ran 16 days ago
Trainer David Flood: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Miss Louise Chance: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 3/15 Course Galloping: 3/13 Class C6+: 3/10 Field 13+: 0/3
1 expert tipped this horse
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7 (12)
4 3 1 8 5 2
J Mr Alexander Woodford (3)
T James Owen 6/52
12% / 9%
11.5 12.0
3 wins from 56 · placed 16
Won 1 of 3 at around this trip
Last ran 28 days ago
Trainer James Owen: 6/52 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/4 Trip 1m1f+: 2/20 Course Galloping: 1/10 Class C6+: 1/18 Field 13+: 2/33
Our chance 12% · market 9%
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8 (10)
7 7 5 7 9 9
J Mr Eddie Edge
T Robert Bevis 0/1
— / 1%
120.0 180.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer Robert Bevis: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/0 Trip 1m1f+: 0/4 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C6+: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/0
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9 (6)
0 0 7 0 0 8
J Mr Jake Holman (3)
T Stephanie Cassidy 0/2
— / 1%
110.0 180.0
4 wins from 33 · placed 7
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 28 days ago
Trainer Stephanie Cassidy: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/0 Trip 1m1f+: 3/19 Course Galloping: 1/4 Class C6+: 1/10 Field 13+: 0/4
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10 (7)
7 5 5 7 9 0
J Miss Sophia Watson (3)
T Nick Kent 0/2
— / 2%
50.0 60.0
5 wins from 36 · placed 8
Won 1 of 3 at around this trip
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer Nick Kent: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 3/24 Course Galloping: 2/11 Class C6+: 2/8 Field 13+: 2/13
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11 (13)
1 5 5 3 7 7
J Miss Tess Hoppeler (3)
T George Baker 1/5
— / 9%
10.5 11.0
1 win from 10 · placed 3
Won 1 of 3 at around this trip
Last ran 39 days ago
Trainer George Baker: 1/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 1/8 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C6+: 0/3 Field 13+: 1/7
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12 (1)
2 0 0 6 5 9
J Miss Leah Naughton (3)
T John Dawson 2/5
— / 3%
36.0 38.0
0 wins from 17 · placed 3
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 7 days ago
Trainer John Dawson: 2/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/0 Trip 1m1f+: 0/5 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/14 Field 13+: 0/1
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13 (11)
4 0 7 8 8 6
J Miss Lauren Sanders (3)
T John Norton
— / 1%
150.0 280.0
2 wins from 32 · placed 8
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 27 days ago
Suits today?
Going Heavy: 0/0 Trip 1m1f+: 2/29 Course Galloping: 0/4 Class C6+: 2/25 Field 13+: 0/3
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