Tuesday 6 October › Southwell › 16:55
bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap
Class 6? Handicap? 1m 6f 21y? Standard? 3YO plus · 11 ran £3,080 to the winner Mostly cloudy
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:43 BST · #8d4107
No clear edge in this wide-open Southwell handicap, so we're sitting this one out.
None of today's contenders offer a price that looks better than their realistic winning chance. The favourite's strengths already look fully priced in, and the same goes for the next two market players, while the two drop-in-class horses come with their own doubts.
How the race should unfold This is a long-distance amateur riders' handicap on Southwell's all-weather surface, run at a fair pace with no dominant leader. Two horses look best placed to take it up, but the staying trip should see the field spread out and the finish decided in the closing stages.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Zafaan The clear favourite on form, having won nicely last time out with a stable and jockey both in good form, but hard to find value in its price.
38% / —
2
The Pug A previous winner at this course with a favourable draw and a light weight, though stepping up sharply in distance brings real uncertainty.
13% / —
3
West Sleekburn Lad A young, improving horse fresh from a recent win and racing off a career-high mark, but that promise already looks fully reflected in the price.
13% / —
4
Stitching Wheel Backed in sharply since the morning and dropping down in class, though the jockey and trainer's recent strike rate leaves some doubt over that move.
8% / —
5
Beaune The stable is in good form, but this one's price has drifted out since the morning and recent form has been patchy.
6% / —
Red flags The Pug is stepping up sharply in distance for the first time, a real unknown over this trip. Stitching Wheel's price drop isn't clearly backed up by strong recent figures from its jockey or trainer. Beaune has drifted in the betting rather than shortened, rarely a positive sign.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Southwell 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led 0.86 1.69 — Prominent 1.16 1.16 1.04 Mid-div 0.75 0.99 0.99 Held up 0.69 0.97 0.72
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 3m 10.45s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Zafaan — 9th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (2)
7 7 6 1 2 5
J Mr Simon Walker 0%
T Chris Grant 0/3
8% / 2%
38.0 46.0
1 win from 12 · placed 3
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Last ran 59 days ago
Trainer Chris Grant: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Simon Walker: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 1/10 Course AW: 0/3 Class C6+: 1/6 Field 9–12: 0/2
Our chance 8% · market 2%
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2 (5)
0 7 5 5 7 9
J Miss Sophia Watson (7) 0%
T Nick Kent 0/1
— / 0%
300.0 1000.0
5 wins from 35 · placed 8
1 run here without a win
Last ran 19 days ago
Trainer Nick Kent: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Miss Sophia Watson: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 3/24 Course AW: 0/5 Class C6+: 2/8 Field 9–12: 0/13
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3 (12)
7 4 3 4 3 0
J Miss Jessica Llewellyn (5) 0%
T Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams 2/12
6% / 15%
6.80 7.20
3 wins from 27 · placed 11
1 run here without a win
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams: 2/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Miss Jessica Llewellyn: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/15 Trip 1m1f+: 3/22 Course AW: 3/15 Class C6+: 3/21 Field 9–12: 2/19
Our chance 6% · market 15%
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4 (3)
5 5 1 4 5 1
J Mr Henry Callan 25%
T Charlie Clover 3/8
38% / 46%
2.16 2.18
5 wins from 34 · placed 12
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Last ran 8 days ago
Trainer Charlie Clover: 3/8 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Henry Callan: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/12 Trip 1m1f+: 3/13 Course AW: 1/12 Class C6+: 4/21 Field 9–12: 3/21
3 experts tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 38% · market 46%
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6 (1)
4 2 0 8 0 3
J Miss Serena Brotherton 0%
T Louise Allan 0/2
— / 3%
29.0 32.0
2 wins from 20 · placed 8
7 runs here without a win
Returns from a 161-day break
Trainer Louise Allan: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Miss Serena Brotherton: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/10 Trip 1m1f+: 1/15 Course AW: 1/10 Class C6+: 1/9 Field 9–12: 1/10
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7 (10)
2 7 3 6 7 3
J Mr Frederick Tett 33%
T Patrick Chamings 1/7
— / 3%
29.0 36.0
1 win from 20 · placed 7
1 run here without a win
Last ran 22 days ago
Trainer Patrick Chamings: 1/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Frederick Tett: 33% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/12 Trip 1m1f+: 2/19 Course AW: 1/12 Class C6+: 2/12 Field 9–12: 2/9
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8 (8)
5 4 5 5 2 2
J Miss Jemima Stewart (7) 0%
T O Murphy 4/15
13% / 6%
17.5 18.5
4 wins from 55 · placed 18
Course winner: 2 wins from 8 here
Last ran 19 days ago
Trainer O Murphy: 4/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Miss Jemima Stewart: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/37 Trip 1m1f+: 4/51 Course AW: 3/37 Class C6+: 4/47 Field 9–12: 1/32
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 13% · market 6%
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9 (11)
0 0 2 4 2 0
J Mr Sam Burton (5) 0%
T Dan Horsford 0/1
— / 4%
26.0 28.0
0 wins from 7 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 22 days ago
Trainer Dan Horsford: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Sam Burton: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/6 Trip 1m1f+: 0/7 Course AW: 0/6 Class C6+: 0/5 Field 9–12: 0/8
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10 (4)
0 8 3 1
J Mr Eireann Cagney 0%
T Peter Niven 1/4
13% / 17%
5.90 6.00
1 win from 4 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer Peter Niven: 1/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr Eireann Cagney: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/2 Trip 1m1f+: 1/3 Course AW: 1/2 Class C6+: 1/2 Field 9–12: 1/3
Our chance 13% · market 17%
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11 (9)
0 3 3 5 2 7
J Mr James Hills (5) 0%
T W J Knight 0/10
— / 4%
26.0 28.0
0 wins from 8 · placed 3
1 run here without a win
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer W J Knight: 0/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr James Hills: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/8 Trip 1m1f+: 0/6 Course AW: 0/8 Class C6+: 0/6 Field 9–12: 0/6
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12 (7)
6 0 9 6 8 6
J Miss Grace Bell (7) 0%
T Craig Lidster 1/13
— / 1%
100.0 680.0
0 wins from 9 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer Craig Lidster: 1/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Miss Grace Bell: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/6 Trip 1m1f+: 0/3 Course AW: 0/6 Class C6+: 0/7 Field 9–12: 0/8
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