Tuesday 20 October › Newcastle › 18:30
AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap (Div 2)
Class 5? Handicap? 1m 5y? Standard? 3YO plus · 12 ran £3,716 to the winner Showers
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:43 BST · #958842 · updated 17:46 BST (v2)
Second Fiddle and Sea Legend both look overpriced in a wide-open Newcastle handicap.
Market (Betfair)?
13% 4.70
Confidence?
Medium · Tier B
How the race should unfold With no obvious pace-setter, the field should race close together and the result should come down to the final stretch. The favourite Chesneys Charm is in good form but faces a step up in class and a much shorter trip, so its price looks fair rather than a bargain.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Second Fiddle Second Fiddle was keeping on well when checked in traffic last time and is quickly back at a track and distance that suit.
23% / 13%
2
Chesneys Charm Chesneys Charm is the in-form favourite, but stepping up in class over a notably shorter distance adds real risk.
16% / 18%
3
Starliner Starliner has a decent amount in hand on official figures and a sound excuse for its last defeat, though the most recent form reading was modest.
10% / 10%
4
Sea Legend Sea Legend drops two levels in grade with a yard in good form, and last time's below-par run looks explainable.
10% / 6%
5
Poppeye Poppeye has one eye-catching effort from only five career starts, which is too little evidence to fully trust.
8% / 11%
Red flags Second Fiddle's price has already shortened a lot, so some of the good news may already be reflected in it. Neither the trainer nor the jockey has had a winner at today's meeting yet. Sea Legend is dropping sharply in grade, which can sometimes flatter a horse's true standard.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Our analyst and the proven experts agree on Second Fiddle.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Newcastle 1m–1m1f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led — 2.10 1.30 Prominent 0.58 0.94 0.92 Mid-div 1.26 1.38 1.23 Held up 1.27 0.72 0.85
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 38.85s · Report
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (2)
3 1 8 3 1 8
J Lauren Young (5) 15%
T J S Goldie 4/26
10% / 5%
19.5 21.0
3 wins from 35 · placed 13
Course winner: 3 wins from 18 here
Returns from a 183-day break
Trainer J S Goldie: 4/26 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Lauren Young: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/19 Trip 1m: 2/11 Course AW: 3/19 Class C5: 1/11 Field 9–12: 2/21
Our chance 10% · market 5%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
2 (10)
5 1 3 9 3 6
J Kevin Stott 18%
T D O'Meara 5/44
— / 7%
13.5 14.0
2 wins from 24 · placed 13
Won 2 of 6 at around this trip
Last ran 7 days ago
Trainer D O'Meara: 5/44 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kevin Stott: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/7 Trip 1m: 2/7 Course AW: 0/7 Class C5: 0/15 Field 9–12: 1/12
Spotted wrong data? Report it
3 (5)
4 2 2 4 1 6
J D Allan 12%
T Craig Lidster 1/11
— / 7%
14.5 15.0
1 win from 8 · placed 5
Won 1 of 4 at around this trip
Last ran 34 days ago
Trainer Craig Lidster: 1/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Allan: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/3 Trip 1m: 1/5 Course AW: 1/3 Class C5: 1/5 Field 9–12: 0/1
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Spotted wrong data? Report it
4 (9)
4 3 0 6 8 0
J Sean Kirrane 0%
T M Dods 2/25
— / 1%
95.0 120.0
8 wins from 41 · placed 17
Won 6 of 28 at around this trip
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer M Dods: 2/25 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Sean Kirrane: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m: 1/17 Course AW: 0/2 Class C5: 6/30 Field 9–12: 3/19
Spotted wrong data? Report it
5 (1)
2 6 2 2 1 8
J William Pyle 0%
T Miss L A Perratt 0/11
10% / 10%
9.80 10.5
5 wins from 55 · placed 21
Course winner: 2 wins from 19 here
Last ran 33 days ago
Trainer Miss L A Perratt: 0/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey William Pyle: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 2/25 Trip 1m: 2/27 Course AW: 2/25 Class C5: 1/26 Field 9–12: 2/34
Our chance 10% · market 10%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
6 (8)
3 3 4 2 0 4
J A Mullen 4%
T I Jardine 3/29
23% / 21%
4.70 4.80
6 wins from 35 · placed 12
Course winner: 5 wins from 11 here
Last ran 8 days ago
Trainer I Jardine: 3/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey A Mullen: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 5/13 Trip 1m: 5/20 Course AW: 5/13 Class C5: 1/10 Field 9–12: 3/17
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 23% · market 21%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
7 (7)
2 7 1 8 0 6
J Billy Garritty 6%
T Liam Bailey 0/5
— / 1%
65.0 80.0
1 win from 6 · placed 2
Course winner: 1 win from 4 here
Last ran 19 days ago
Trainer Liam Bailey: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Billy Garritty: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/6 Trip 1m: 0/3 Course AW: 1/6 Class C5: 0/3 Field 9–12: 1/4
Spotted wrong data? Report it
8 (3)
7 3 7 3 4 5
J Jason Hart 11%
T Ivan Furtado 2/31
16% / 16%
6.00 6.20
4 wins from 28 · placed 9
Course winner: 1 win from 2 here
Last ran 5 days ago
Trainer Ivan Furtado: 2/31 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jason Hart: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/12 Trip 1m: 0/11 Course AW: 3/12 Class C5: 2/12 Field 9–12: 1/14
Our chance 16% · market 16%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
9 (6)
4 7 4 2 5
J Oliver Stammers 20%
T Grant Tuer 4/15
8% / 14%
6.80 7.00
0 wins from 5 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 59 days ago
Trainer Grant Tuer: 4/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Oliver Stammers: 20% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/2 Trip 1m: 1/2 Course AW: 1/2 Class C5: 1/2 Field 9–12: 1/4
Our chance 8% · market 14%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
10 (11)
2 3 2 0 1 3
J Alexandra Egan (5) 17%
T P Morris 1/9
— / 10%
9.80 10.5
7 wins from 55 · placed 19
Course winner: 2 wins from 12 here
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer P Morris: 1/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Alexandra Egan: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 4/30 Trip 1m: 2/31 Course AW: 4/30 Class C5: 2/16 Field 9–12: 6/33
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Spotted wrong data? Report it
11 (4)
1 3 3 1 3 1
J Marco Ghiani 5%
T Tony Carroll 2/34
— / 5%
18.5 20.0
4 wins from 21 · placed 9
Won 1 of 12 at around this trip
Last ran 22 days ago
Trainer Tony Carroll: 2/34 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Marco Ghiani: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/8 Trip 1m: 1/11 Course AW: 0/8 Class C5: 0/3 Field 9–12: 3/10
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Spotted wrong data? Report it
12 (12)
7 5 6 8 8 6
J Mark Winn 25%
T D O'Meara 5/44
— / 2%
55.0 65.0
1 win from 8 · placed 1
1 run here without a win
First time in blinkers and a tongue strap
Trainer D O'Meara: 5/44 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mark Winn: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m: 0/3 Course AW: 0/2 Class C5: 0/6 Field 9–12: 0/6
Spotted wrong data? Report it