Sunday 18 October › Limerick › 14:00
Result
Race of the Day
14:00 · Limerick (IRE)
PwC Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m 125y? Yielding? 4YO plus · 7 ran €9,000 to the winner Sunny
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:04 BST · #03dee2 · updated 13:14 BST (v3)
No clear betting edge in this maiden hurdle, so we're sitting this one out
The two strongest contenders are already well fancied by the market, and neither offers enough of an edge over its price to justify a bet once the bookmaker's margin is accounted for. The rest of the field lacks the form or evidence needed to make a case either.
How the race should unfold With no obvious pace-setter, this looks like an evenly run race that should come down to class and jumping. The market favourite is lightly raced and unproven, while the best-fancied alternative is dropping in class but has been error-prone over hurdles. Neither looks reliable enough to settle the race with confidence.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Brickfield Belle The market favourite, backed by a strong stable, but she's had only two starts without a win and hasn't raced in a long while.
55% / 50%
2
Kimi De Mai Looks the classiest horse here on paper after a close second in a much stronger race, but her jumping has been unreliable, which matters a lot over hurdles.
33% / 30%
3
Aboras Mahler Her previous races were against weaker fields than this one, so there's little sign of hidden improvement to lean on.
4% / 5%
4
Lucky Valley Just one run on the flat some time ago leaves barely any evidence to judge her chances here.
2% / 4%
5
French Adventure A disappointing hurdling debut leaves little reason for confidence in this tougher field.
2% / 6%
Red flags The favourite is unproven, with just two runs and no wins, plus a lengthy spell off the track. The main alternative has shown jumping mistakes before, which can easily cost a horse the race over hurdles. Several others in the field have very little recent form to go on, making them hard to trust.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 4m 00.40s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Brickfield Belle — 2nd.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
0 0 P 2 2 8 J Mark Walsh 17% T E McNamara 2/26 4% / 4% 23.0 26.0
0 wins from 7 · placed 2
1 run here without a win
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer E McNamara: 2/26 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mark Walsh: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/3 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/7 Course Galloping: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
Our chance 4% · market 4%
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2
5 3 1 J Darragh OKeeffe 23% T Henry De Bromhead 7/34 55% / 61% 1.63 1.64
0 wins from 2 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 41 days ago
Trainer Henry De Bromhead: 7/34 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Darragh OKeeffe: 23% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
3 experts tipped this horse · 3 with a strong record
Our chance 55% · market 61%
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3
7 J John Aherne (7) 0% T L Walshe 0/1 — / 0% 1000.0 —
2 wins from 25 · placed 14
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer L Walshe: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey John Aherne: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/2 Course Galloping: 0/3 Field ≤ 8: 0/8
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4
3 3 3 1 P 0 J Josh Williamson (3) 8% T David M OBrien 0/2 2% / 0% 180.0 520.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 16 days ago
Trainer David M OBrien: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Josh Williamson: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
Our chance 2% · market 0%
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5
0 J Rian Lane (7) 0% T Sean Joseph Allen 0/2 — / 0% 1000.0 —
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Sean Joseph Allen: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rian Lane: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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7
3 3 7 0 2 2 J Paul Townend 38% T W P Mullins 4/23 33% / 34% 2.88 2.92
0 wins from 9 · placed 5
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer W P Mullins: 4/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Paul Townend: 38% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 1/4 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 1/7 Course Galloping: 1/6 Field ≤ 8: 1/1
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 33% · market 34%
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8
U 3 4 1 2 5 J Alan OSullivan (5) 8% T Michael Barry 0/1 2% / 0% 280.0 580.0
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
06 Apr 26 Cork 2m Yielding — 5/8 19L 9.50
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 195-day break
Trainer Michael Barry: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Alan OSullivan: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/2 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
Our chance 2% · market 0%
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