Result Race of the Day 16:30 · Southwell

All-Weather Championship Is Back Apprentice Handicap (Div 1)

Class 6Handicap4f 214yStandard3YO plus · 10 ran£3,140 to the winnerOvercast dry 2 experts

Analyst verdict Locked 10:20 GMT · #575fc6 · updated 15:45 GMT (v2)

No standout edge in this field, so it's best watched rather than bet.

No horse in this race offers a strong enough edge over its market price to justify backing it once the risk of misjudging the form is taken into account. The safest call is to let this race go.

How the race should unfoldWith no single dominant frontrunner and two horses of similar pace, this looks set to be an open gallop, with the finish likely decided in the closing stages rather than by a lone leader escaping unchallenged.

Midnight Lir

The favourite has finished mid-pack in its last three starts and hasn't won for some time, so there's no strong reason to expect a breakthrough today.

24% / 23%

Tomarlo

Has raced against tougher company recently, hinting at more ability than its results show, but its price has drifted noticeably since the morning, which is worth noting.

15% / 20%

Stash The Cash

Drawn well and trains in a capable yard, but returns from a long break and its last run lacked any real sparkle.

15% / 16%

Timebar

Has shown some solid form, but drops sharply in distance today and has drifted heavily in the market, both of which temper the appeal.

8% / 11%

Beautiful Rumour

Form on paper looks attractive, but a sharp price drift alongside apparently peaking form is a combination that has historically been a warning sign rather than a green light.

6% / 8%

Red flags

Several fancied runners have drifted noticeably in price since morning, which often hints at something the market knows that isn't obvious from form alone.The favourite is reliable but hasn't won in a while, with nothing concrete pointing to a change in fortune today.More than one runner is returning from a lengthy break or a flat recent effort, adding uncertainty to their readiness.

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Expert confidence

2 experts

Midnight Lir (IRE)

1 expert

Stash The Cash (IRE)

1 expert

Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.

Betfair Exchange · Win

Midnight Lir (IRE)4.604.70

Tomarlo5.505.60

Stash The Cash (IRE)6.406.60

Timebar (GB)8.008.20

Beautiful Rumour10.010.5

Ten Cuidado (IRE)14.014.5

Midnight Lir (IRE): 4.10 at 15:30 → 4.60 at 16:29.

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Track bias · Southwell 5f–6f

Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons

Low drawMiddleHigh draw Led1.400.711.40Prominent0.791.171.41Mid-div0.951.001.02Held up0.580.630.70

Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.

Result

Official · time 59.56s · Report

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Beaten	SP	BSP
1	Ten Cuidado (IRE)	Rose Dawes	Mark Usher	—	11.0	13.6
2	Midnight Lir (IRE)	Rhys Elliott	M Dods	¾L	4.33	5.12
3	Fancy Dancer	Donagh Murphy	Hayley Burton	1L	13.0	18.8
4	Mister Moet (IRE)	Mikkel Mortensen	S Dixon	1¼L	9.50	10.5
5	Timebar (GB)	Laura Coughlan	Roy Bowring	1½L	6.00	6.80
6	Lil Wade (IRE)	Charlie Tucker	S Dixon	2¼L	41.0	50.7
7	Tomarlo	Luke Catton	J Candlish	4½L	5.50	6.60
8	Stash The Cash (IRE)	Taryn Langley	Adam Kirby	5L	6.00	7.96
9	Bishops Glory (IRE)	Alex Jary	Joey Ramsden	6½L	29.0	46.4
10	Beautiful Rumour	Christian Howarth	S Dixon	14½L	8.00	9.03

How our analyst did

No bet. Our top-rated contender: Midnight Lir — 2nd.

Runners

Form, oldest → latest Suitability: strong good untried poor Bookmaker prices — coming soon

1 (3)

Tomarlo p1,t1

4yo · 9-9 · OR 55

431576 J Luke Catton 0% T J Candlish 0/21 15% / 18% 5.50 5.60

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
26 Sep 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C6	6/9	5¾L	7.50
08 Sep 26	Leicester	6f	Good To Soft	C5	7/11	6L	21.0
16 Jul 26	Chepstow	7f 16y	Good To Firm	C6	5/12	3¼L	7.50

2 wins from 27 · placed 8

1 run here without a win

First time in cheekpieces and a tongue strap

Trainer J Candlish: 0/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Luke Catton: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 2/16Trip 5f: 0/15Course AW: 2/16Class C6+: 1/7Field 9–12: 1/13

Our chance 15% · market 18%

Full profile →Jockey Luke Catton Trainer J Candlish

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2 (7)

Midnight Lir (IRE) b,t

5yo · 9-8 · OR 54

489466 J Rhys Elliott 0% T M Dods 2/23 24% / 22% 4.60 4.70

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
22 Oct 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C6	6/11	3¼L	7.00
03 Oct 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C6	6/10	2¼L	13.0
15 Sep 26	Redcar	5f	Good	C6	4/13	1¼L	21.0

2 wins from 37 · placed 10

Won 2 of 34 at around this trip

Last ran 4 days ago

Trainer M Dods: 2/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Rhys Elliott: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/6Trip 5f: 2/35Course AW: 0/6Class C6+: 0/11Field 9–12: 1/19

1 expert tipped this horse

Our chance 24% · market 22%

Full profile →Jockey Rhys Elliott Trainer M Dods

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3 (1)

Stash The Cash (IRE) t

5yo · 9-6 · OR 52

572662 J Taryn Langley (3) 0% T Adam Kirby 2/18 15% / 16% 6.40 6.60

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
28 Apr 26	Southwell	5f	Standard	C6	2/8	1½L	13.0
11 Feb 26	Southwell	5f	Standard	C6	6/6	9¾L	8.00
20 Jan 26	Southwell	5f	Standard	C6	6/9	5L	6.00

3 wins from 35 · placed 11

Won 3 of 29 at around this trip

Returns from a 181-day break

Trainer Adam Kirby: 2/18 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Taryn Langley: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/9Trip 5f: 3/30Course AW: 0/9Class C6+: 1/11Field 9–12: 0/17

1 expert tipped this horse

Our chance 15% · market 16%

Full profile →Jockey Taryn Langley Trainer Adam Kirby

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4 (5)

Fancy Dancer b11

4yo · 9-5 · OR 51

520229 J Donagh Murphy (5) 29% T Hayley Burton 0/3 — / 6% 16.0 16.5

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
02 Oct 26	Wolverhampton	5f 21y	Standard	C6	9/11	8¾L	6.50
02 Sep 26	Bath	5f 10y	Good	C6	2/8	nk	6.50
26 Aug 26	Wolverhampton	5f 21y	Standard	C6	2/6	½L	6.50

3 wins from 22 · placed 7

2 runs here without a win

First time in blinkers

Trainer Hayley Burton: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Donagh Murphy: 29% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 1/13Trip 5f: 0/7Course AW: 1/13Class C6+: 3/17Field 9–12: 3/14

Full profile →Jockey Donagh Murphy Trainer Hayley Burton

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5 (8)

Mister Moet (IRE) p

3yo · 9-4 · OR 50

457900 J Mikkel Mortensen (3) 0% T S Dixon 1/37 — / 6% 16.0 17.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
29 Sep 26	Wolverhampton	6f 20y	Standard	C6	11/11	8½L	101.0
22 Sep 26	Southwell	6f 16y	Standard	C6	10/12	7½L	26.0
15 Sep 26	Wolverhampton	6f 20y	Standard	C6	9/12	11¼L	41.0

3 wins from 27 · placed 8

Won 1 of 6 at around this trip

Last ran 27 days ago

Trainer S Dixon: 1/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Mikkel Mortensen: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 2/18Trip 5f: 1/7Course AW: 2/18Class C6+: 1/13Field 9–12: 0/11

Full profile →Jockey Mikkel Mortensen Trainer S Dixon

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6 (4)

Ten Cuidado (IRE) v

3yo · 9-1 · OR 47

063090 J Rose Dawes 29% T Mark Usher 1/3 — / 7% 14.0 14.5

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
19 Oct 26	Wolverhampton	6f 20y	Standard	C6	13/13	6¾L	29.0
05 Oct 26	Wolverhampton	6f 20y	Standard	C6	9/11	5¾L	41.0
13 Sep 26	Bath	5f 10y	Good To Soft	C6	11/13	6¾L	19.0

0 wins from 10 · placed 1

2 runs at around this trip without a win

Last ran 7 days ago

Trainer Mark Usher: 1/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Rose Dawes: 29% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 1/8Trip 5f: 1/3Course AW: 1/8Class C6+: 1/7Field 9–12: 1/6

Full profile →Jockey Rose Dawes Trainer Mark Usher

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7 (9)

Timebar (GB) b,t

5yo · 9-0 · OR 46

282278 J Laura Coughlan 0% T Roy Bowring 1/4 8% / 12% 8.00 8.20

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
15 Oct 26	Southwell	7f 14y	Standard	C6	8/13	10¾L	6.00
16 Aug 26	Southwell	1m 13y	Standard	C6	7/13	10L	6.00
25 Jul 26	Newcastle	7f 14y	Standard To Slow	C6	2/13	1¼L	11.0

0 wins from 20 · placed 4

8 runs here without a win

Last ran 11 days ago

Trainer Roy Bowring: 1/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Laura Coughlan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/13Trip 5f: 0/3Course AW: 0/13Class C6+: 0/15Field 9–12: 0/12

Our chance 8% · market 12%

Full profile →Jockey Laura Coughlan Trainer Roy Bowring

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8 (6)

Beautiful Rumour

4yo · 9-0 · OR 45

9459 J Christian Howarth 0% T S Dixon 1/37 6% / 9% 10.0 10.5

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
19 Oct 26	Wolverhampton	6f 20y	Standard	C6	9/13	4¼L	26.0
15 Sep 26	Wolverhampton	6f 20y	Standard	C4	5/12	11¾L	301.0
03 Sep 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C4	4/6	12L	151.0

0 wins from 4 · placed 0

2 runs here without a win

Last ran 7 days ago

Trainer S Dixon: 1/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Christian Howarth: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/5Trip 5f: 0/2Course AW: 0/5Class C6+: 0/2Field 9–12: 0/3

Our chance 6% · market 9%

Full profile →Jockey Christian Howarth Trainer S Dixon

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9 (10)

Bishops Glory (IRE) b

6yo · 9-0 · OR 45

377057 J Alex Jary 0% T Joey Ramsden 0/4 — / 2% 38.0 42.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
06 Oct 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C6	7/11	3¾L	51.0
07 Jul 26	Wolverhampton	5f 21y	Standard	C6	5/7	9¼L	4.50
01 Jul 26	Thirsk	6f	Good To Firm	C6	12/18	9¾L	51.0

2 wins from 38 · placed 8

6 runs here without a win

Last ran 20 days ago

Trainer Joey Ramsden: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Alex Jary: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 2/33Trip 5f: 0/9Course AW: 2/33Class C6+: 2/34Field 9–12: 1/24

Full profile →Jockey Alex Jary Trainer Joey Ramsden

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10 (2)

Lil Wade (IRE) v

6yo · 9-0 · OR 45

590809 J Charlie Tucker (5) 0% T S Dixon 1/37 — / 2% 60.0 75.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
22 Oct 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C6	9/11	5¼L	126.0
29 May 26	Brighton	6f	Good To Firm	C6	13/13	21½L	81.0
21 May 26	Southwell	7f	Standard	C6	8/9	11¼L	101.0

0 wins from 35 · placed 3

14 runs here without a win

Last ran 4 days ago

Trainer S Dixon: 1/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Charlie Tucker: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/33Trip 5f: 0/13Course AW: 0/33Class C6+: 0/33Field 9–12: 0/27

Full profile →Jockey Charlie Tucker Trainer S Dixon

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All-Weather Championship Is Back Apprentice Handicap (Div 1)

Expert confidence?

Betfair Exchange · Win

Track bias · Southwell 5f–6f?

Result

Runners

Expert confidence

Track bias · Southwell 5f–6f