Today › Kempton Park › 17:15
Unibet More Extra Place Races EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)
Class 3? 7f? Standard to slow? 2YO only · 9 ran £7,020 to the winner Mostly cloudy
2 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 10:22 GMT · #bb014f · updated 16:29 GMT (v2)
Showmaster looks the one to beat, but there's no edge left in the price.
The clear form leader is already priced accordingly, and none of the others offer enough confidence to back at their current prices, so this looks a race to watch rather than bet.
How the race should unfold No obvious pace-setter means this should be an even-run race rather than one dominated by a single front-runner. The ground and trip shouldn't trouble anyone unduly, so it's likely to come down to whoever travels through the race most comfortably and finds extra in the closing stages.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Showmaster Showmaster ran well in a strong field on debut and clearly has the most proven ability here, but that edge is already fully reflected in the price.
55% / 61%
2
Raslan Raslan comes from a yard in excellent form with a top jockey aboard, and today's step up in distance could suit after a last run that was compromised by too fast a pace.
14% / 13%
3
Ala Et Prece Ala Et Prece has attracted strong market support, but the yard doesn't have a notable record with newcomers, so the case rests mainly on the betting move.
12% / 7%
4
Le Drakkar Le Drakkar is a first-timer from a yard in decent form, but wearing headgear for the first time alone isn't enough to boost its chances.
6% / 4%
5
Green Tundra Green Tundra has an excuse for its last run, but a fading price alongside modest form makes this one hard to trust.
2% / 3%
Red flags Showmaster's price already reflects its advantage, leaving little room for profit even if it wins. Ala Et Prece's market support isn't backed up by a trainer with a strong first-time-out record. Green Tundra's drifting price despite a stated excuse is historically more often a warning sign than a reason to back it.
Expert confidence? 2 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Kempton Park 7f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led 2.12 1.47 1.73 Prominent 0.97 1.47 1.06 Mid-div 1.21 1.25 0.45 Held up 0.20 0.42 0.43
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 26.95s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Showmaster — won.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (2)
No form J Daniel Muscutt 19% T James Keane 0/1 12% / 12% 8.20 8.40
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer James Keane: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Daniel Muscutt: 19% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C3: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
Our chance 12% · market 12%
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2 (7)
No form J Callum Shepherd 0% T R Hannon 3/31 — / 3% 34.0 36.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer R Hannon: 3/31 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Callum Shepherd: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C3: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
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3 (8)
7 J Lewis Edmunds 8% T Harry Charlton 2/13 2% / 3% 34.0 38.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 37 days ago
Trainer Harry Charlton: 2/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Lewis Edmunds: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/2 Course AW: 0/1 Class C3: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/1
Our chance 2% · market 3%
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4 (9)
No form J D Egan 16% T K P De Foy 2/16 6% / 7% 15.0 16.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer K P De Foy: 2/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Egan: 16% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C3: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
Our chance 6% · market 7%
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5 (5)
7 6 J Oisin Murphy 21% T G Boughey 6/29 14% / 10% 10.0 10.5
0 wins from 2 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 60-day break
Trainer G Boughey: 6/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Oisin Murphy: 21% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C3: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/2
Our chance 14% · market 10%
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6 (1)
6 J Charles Bishop 4% T A King 0/13 — / 1% 85.0 110.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer A King: 0/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Charles Bishop: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/2 Class C3: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/2
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7 (6)
3 J Rossa Ryan 12% T C G Cox 3/16 55% / 63% 1.57 1.58
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
01 Oct 26 Salisbury 6f 213y Good to soft-good in places C3 3/12 2½L 5.00
0 wins from 1 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer C G Cox: 3/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rossa Ryan: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/1 Trip 7f: 1/2 Course AW: 1/1 Class C3: 1/2 Field 9–12: 1/2
2 experts tipped this horse
Our chance 55% · market 63%
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8 (3)
0 J Rob Hornby 7% T Charles Hills 3/15 — / 1% 150.0 250.0
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
01 Oct 26 Salisbury 6f 213y Good to soft-good in places C3 10/12 12¾L 13.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer Charles Hills: 3/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rob Hornby: 7% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/2 Course AW: 0/1 Class C3: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/2
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9 (4)
No form J K Shoemark 17% T Ollie Sangster 2/24 — / 1% 100.0 130.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Ollie Sangster: 2/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey K Shoemark: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C3: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
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