Will Do looks the smarter choice over a shorter-priced but jump-shy favourite.
Our chance
28% 1 in 4
Market (Betfair)
18% 5.10
Worth it down to
3.60
Confidence
Medium · Tier B
How the race should unfoldWith six runners and no obvious pace-setter, this beginners' chase could be a tactical affair rather than a fast-run one. It should come down to who jumps these fences cleanly, since several in the field have had jumping troubles before, and that's likely to decide who is still travelling well up the straight.
#Contender and why we differ from the marketOurs ■ vs market ■Win chance
Chart Topper has the fastest recent form in this field but has fallen or failed to finish over fences before, which is a real worry in a beginners' chase.
Will Do looks more capable than his official rating suggests and has no history of jumping trouble, even though a few runs ended early in much tougher, bigger-field races.
Mint Boy returns from a very long break and both horse and yard look short of recent form, making him hard to trust fully here.
9%/ 8%
Red flags
Will Do's last few starts ended early, though those were much tougher, bigger-field races than this one.Will Do's price has already shortened somewhat, so some of the early value may be gone.This is a beginners' chase, so any horse, including the favourite, carries a genuine risk of jumping errors.