Saturday 24 October › Southwell › 17:30
Join The Midnite Movement Handicap
Class 6? Handicap? 1m 4f 14y? Standard? 3YO plus · 14 ran £3,768 to the winner Rain
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:30 BST · #55108d · updated 16:47 BST (v2)
A wide-open 14-runner handicap with no standout and no betting value on offer.
The market's prices look broadly fair across this big field, and the few areas of possible value are too marginal or uncertain to back with confidence.
How the race should unfold Fourteen runners line up with no dominant favourite. One horse looks the likeliest to take the lead, but another with a similar racing style could prevent a clean break, so this race is unlikely to be settled until deep into the final stages.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Spirit Of Nature Came into this on the up after a close second at a big price, and now sits as a fair-priced favourite with little hidden value left.
17% / 11%
2
Wyvill The three-year-old is in the best form of its career, having run close to winning in each of its recent starts.
13% / 12%
3
Havachoc Finished well back last time, but that run came against much stronger opposition, and several of those rivals have since gone on to win.
12% / 9%
4
Masego Drops in from jumps racing with a big gap between its official rating and apparent ability, though this move is largely unproven so far.
12% / 13%
5
Lednikov Looks the likeliest to take it up in front, with more raw ability than its rating suggests, but was only narrowly beaten last time out.
6% / 5%
Red flags The pace picture is not fully settled - the likely leader could be challenged for the front, which would change how the race plays out. The step up from jumps to this longer flat trip is a big, largely untested leap for one of the contenders. Reading improved form into one runner's last run depends on judging how strong its opposition really was, not a clear result.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Southwell 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led 1.08 1.70 — Prominent 1.14 1.16 1.06 Mid-div 0.58 1.12 0.95 Held up 0.67 0.95 0.75
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 40.10s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Spirit Of Nature — 13th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (10)
4 6 6
J Callum Rodriguez 8%
T Brian Ellison 4/24
— / 16%
6.20 6.40
0 wins from 5 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Last ran 46 days ago
Trainer Brian Ellison: 4/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Callum Rodriguez: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course AW: 0/3 Class C6+: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Spotted wrong data? Report it
2 (5)
6 2 4 7 9 6
J Paddy Bradley 5%
T P Morris 1/12
12% / 8%
13.0 13.5
3 wins from 26 · placed 10
Course winner: 1 win from 4 here
Last ran 29 days ago
Trainer P Morris: 1/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Paddy Bradley: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/16 Trip 1m1f+: 3/24 Course AW: 3/16 Class C6+: 3/20 Field 13+: 0/2
Our chance 12% · market 8%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
3 (13)
9 6 5 3 3 7
J Zak Wheatley 0%
T Declan Carroll 0/12
— / 4%
23.0 24.0
3 wins from 26 · placed 10
Course winner: 2 wins from 6 here
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer Declan Carroll: 0/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Zak Wheatley: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 2/10 Trip 1m1f+: 3/21 Course AW: 2/10 Class C6+: 3/24 Field 13+: 1/3
Spotted wrong data? Report it
4 (12)
2 1 5 1 4 4
J Darragh Keenan 0%
T J Candlish 0/19
— / 2%
40.0 42.0
2 wins from 18 · placed 6
4 runs here without a win
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer J Candlish: 0/19 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Darragh Keenan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/10 Trip 1m1f+: 2/19 Course AW: 0/10 Class C6+: 2/16 Field 13+: 0/3
Spotted wrong data? Report it
5 (3)
3 3 2 3 4 4
J Callum Shepherd 0%
T Gihan Arnolda 0/5
— / 9%
10.5 11.0
1 win from 23 · placed 9
11 runs at around this trip without a win
First time in blinkers
Trainer Gihan Arnolda: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Callum Shepherd: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/11 Trip 1m1f+: 1/18 Course AW: 0/11 Class C6+: 1/13 Field 13+: 0/8
Spotted wrong data? Report it
6 (8)
5 5 1 3 2 3
J Kevin Stott 17%
T Tony Carroll 1/35
12% / 13%
7.40 7.60
1 win from 16 · placed 4
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 31 days ago
Trainer Tony Carroll: 1/35 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kevin Stott: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 1/8 Course AW: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/1 Field 13+: 1/12
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 12% · market 13%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
7 (1)
7 7 3 3 0 0
J Luke Morris 10%
T Gihan Arnolda 0/5
— / 2%
48.0 55.0
0 wins from 9 · placed 2
1 run here without a win
First time in cheekpieces
Trainer Gihan Arnolda: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke Morris: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/7 Course AW: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/6 Field 13+: 0/4
1 expert tipped this horse
Spotted wrong data? Report it
8 (2)
6 6 7 3 3
J Billy Loughnane 19%
T Ian Williams 1/23
13% / 15%
6.60 6.80
0 wins from 5 · placed 2
1 run here without a win
Last ran 35 days ago
Trainer Ian Williams: 1/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Billy Loughnane: 19% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 0/4 Course AW: 0/5 Class C6+: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/1
Our chance 13% · market 15%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
9 (7)
6 1 4 3 3 6
J Rob Hornby 6%
T Charlie Clover 2/5
— / 4%
26.0 27.0
3 wins from 35 · placed 10
Won 1 of 6 at around this trip
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer Charlie Clover: 2/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rob Hornby: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/14 Trip 1m1f+: 3/19 Course AW: 1/14 Class C6+: 4/33 Field 13+: 1/4
Spotted wrong data? Report it
10 (9)
6 8 9 2 3 7
J R Havlin 6%
T Richard Phillips 0/4
— / 1%
140.0 220.0
3 wins from 43 · placed 10
Won 1 of 20 at around this trip
Last ran 59 days ago
Trainer Richard Phillips: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey R Havlin: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/20 Trip 1m1f+: 3/43 Course AW: 0/20 Class C6+: 3/40 Field 13+: 0/8
Spotted wrong data? Report it
11 (6)
8 7 0 6 7 2
J Harry Davies 12%
T J S Goldie 2/21
17% / 14%
6.80 7.20
0 wins from 8 · placed 2
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 29 days ago
Trainer J S Goldie: 2/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Harry Davies: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/7 Course AW: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/6 Field 13+: 0/1
2 experts tipped this horse
Our chance 17% · market 14%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
12 (4)
5 7 4 3 5 7
J Elle-May Croot (5) 0%
T Ivan Furtado 2/26
6% / 5%
21.0 22.0
7 wins from 53 · placed 17
Course winner: 6 wins from 21 here
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer Ivan Furtado: 2/26 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Elle-May Croot: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 6/37 Trip 1m1f+: 7/52 Course AW: 6/37 Class C6+: 7/46 Field 13+: 1/5
Our chance 6% · market 5%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
13 (14)
5 9 9 0 5 5
J Dougie Costello 0%
T Steph Hollinshead 2/16
— / 6%
15.0 16.0
0 wins from 6 · placed 0
3 runs here without a win
Last ran 19 days ago
Trainer Steph Hollinshead: 2/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Dougie Costello: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/6 Trip 1m1f+: 0/5 Course AW: 0/6 Class C6+: 0/4 Field 13+: 0/3
Spotted wrong data? Report it
14 (11)
1 7 7 1 7 3
J William Cox 0%
T Faye Bramley 2/12
— / 1%
70.0 75.0
1 win from 18 · placed 3
2 runs here without a win
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer Faye Bramley: 2/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey William Cox: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/12 Trip 1m1f+: 1/7 Course AW: 1/12 Class C6+: 1/15 Field 13+: 0/4
Spotted wrong data? Report it