Saturday 24 October › Kelso › 13:37
Result
Race of the Day
13:37 · Kelso
Stay For The After Party 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
Class 4? 2m 51y? Good · GoingStick 6.0? 4YO plus · 6 ran £5,446 to the winner Rain
3 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:20 BST · #c40786
No clear betting edge in a tricky, small-field Kelso maiden hurdle.
One runner does stand out for her consistent recent form, but with a small field and several unexposed or lightly-raced types, there isn't enough of an edge at current prices to back anything with confidence today.
How the race should unfold With only six runners and no obvious pace-setter, this should be a tactical affair rather than a hard-run race. Jockeys may sit and wait early, meaning the finish is likely to be decided in the closing stages. The more exposed, consistent types look better equipped to cope with that shape than the unraced or lightly-raced runners.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Eazy Breezy She's the favourite but has never run, so there's no form to judge her on, and this yard's debutants have often been overbet recently.
33% / —
2
Cape Warrior She has finished second three times running in similar races, twice at this course including this same distance last time, losing by only a short margin.
22% / —
3
Jessmarvel Her form dipped between her last two runs and she's back from a long absence, making her current form hard to pin down.
18% / —
4
Royal March She has had just one run, and her yard and jockey haven't had a strong record of late, adding to the uncertainty.
15% / —
5
Oor Wish She carries the highest official rating in the field but is still without a win in five starts, with results that swing from near-misses to well-beaten efforts.
6% / —
Red flags The favourite is unraced, so her ability is a complete unknown. One contender returns from a long layoff with recently dipping form. The field's top-rated runner has yet to win and is very inconsistent.
Expert confidence? 3 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 3m 57.61s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Eazy Breezy — 2nd.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
3 1 J Patrick Wadge 13% T Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 9/41 33% / 45% 2.20 2.22
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 195-day break
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore: 9/41 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Patrick Wadge: 13% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Class C4: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
3 experts tipped this horse
Our chance 33% · market 45%
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2
2 J K Brogan 12% T N W Alexander 0/14 15% / 10% 10.5 11.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 193-day break
Trainer N W Alexander: 0/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey K Brogan: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/2 Class C4: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
Our chance 15% · market 10%
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3
0 J Danny McMenamin 26% T L J Morgan 0/5 — / 2% 60.0 70.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 62-day break
Trainer L J Morgan: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Danny McMenamin: 26% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Undulating: 0/1 Class C4: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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4
2 2 2 J Sean Quinlan 11% T Micky Hammond 1/9 22% / 18% 5.40 5.50
0 wins from 3 · placed 3
2 runs here without a win
Last ran 38 days ago
Trainer Micky Hammond: 1/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Sean Quinlan: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 2m: 0/4 Course Undulating: 0/3 Class C4: 0/3 Field ≤ 8: 0/4
Our chance 22% · market 18%
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5
5 3 J Gregor Walkingshaw (10) 50% T Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 9/41 18% / 20% 4.90 5.00
0 wins from 2 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 249-day break
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore: 9/41 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Gregor Walkingshaw: 50% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/1 Trip 2m: 1/1 Course Undulating: 1/2 Class C4: 1/2 Field ≤ 8: 1/2
Our chance 18% · market 20%
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6
4 4 6 4 7 J Bruce Lynn 0% T N W Alexander 0/14 6% / 6% 17.5 18.5
0 wins from 5 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Returns from a 164-day break
Trainer N W Alexander: 0/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Bruce Lynn: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 2m: 0/4 Course Undulating: 0/2 Class C4: 0/4 Field ≤ 8: 0/5
Our chance 6% · market 6%
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