Saturday 24 October › Cheltenham › 16:40
Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)
Class 2? 2m 87y? Good-good to soft in places · GoingStick 6.5? 4YO to 5YO · 10 ran £9,530 to the winner Rain
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:28 BST · #a4b70e · updated 16:12 BST (v3)
A crowded bumper field with no clear value standing out from the market.
None of these contenders look clearly underpriced once weighed against their market price, so there isn't a strong enough edge to recommend backing one today.
How the race should unfold This bumper mixes unraced types with a few proven performers, so the home turn and closing stages should decide it. With no obvious pace-setter, expect a steady group early before a tight finish, rewarding whoever travels well and finds the clearest run late.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Ballycrystal Boy The market favourite, stepping out for the first time but heavily backed, with a strong yard currently in good form behind it.
26% / 25%
2
Micky Haller Another newcomer whose price tumbled sharply, linked to a trainer and jockey combination enjoying a winning day and a big overall strike rate together.
16% / 5%
3
Port Isaac Boasts the strongest form figures in the field after a clean, front-running debut win, with a trainer who performs well in this type of race.
10% / 12%
4
Tythingman Won nicely last time out and comes from a yard and jockey both in form, though the price easing during the morning is worth noting.
9% / 16%
5
Milord D'anjou Rides for a jockey already successful today, but there's little beyond that to suggest this one is better than its market price.
9% / 14%
Red flags Several runners have no public racing form, making the shape of the race hard to predict. Tythingman's price eased during the morning despite being well regarded, a pattern that has often preceded flat performances. The market favourite is unproven and short in price for a first-time starter.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 3m 56.40s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Ballycrystal Boy — won.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
2
3 1 J Charlie Deutsch 0% T Mel Rowley 0/3 — / 8% 12.5 13.0
1 win from 2 · placed 2
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Returns from a 189-day break
Trainer Mel Rowley: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Charlie Deutsch: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/2 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 1/3
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3
1 J J J Burke 25% T T Bulgin 0/1 10% / 9% 11.0 11.5
1 win from 1 · placed 1
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Returns from a 225-day break
Trainer T Bulgin: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey J J Burke: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
Our chance 10% · market 9%
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4
1 J Freddie Gingell 0% T Joe Tizzard 9/30 9% / 10% 9.60 10.0
1 win from 1 · placed 1
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Returns from a 244-day break
Trainer Joe Tizzard: 9/30 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Freddie Gingell: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m: 1/2 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 1/2
Our chance 9% · market 10%
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5
3 4 P 6 2 2 J Jack Hogan 36% T F O'Brien 4/24 — / 4% 23.0 25.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 140-day break
Trainer F O'Brien: 4/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Hogan: 36% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/2
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6
1 J G Sheehan 30% T Jamie Snowden 6/16 26% / 37% 2.64 2.66
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 237-day break
Trainer Jamie Snowden: 6/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey G Sheehan: 30% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/1 Trip 2m: 1/1 Course Stiff: 1/1 Class C2: 1/1 Field 9–12: 1/1
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 26% · market 37%
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7
No form J C Gethings 6% T Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 0/5 — / 3% 38.0 40.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey C Gethings: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
1 expert tipped this horse
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8
2 J Jack Andrews 17% T T Ellis 1/6 — / 2% 60.0 65.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 168-day break
Trainer T Ellis: 1/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Andrews: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
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9
2 J Liam Harrison 0% T F O'Brien 4/24 — / 6% 17.5 18.5
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 259-day break
Trainer F O'Brien: 4/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Liam Harrison: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
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11
6 3 J Ben Jones 8% T B Pauling 1/17 9% / 5% 19.5 20.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 206-day break
Trainer B Pauling: 1/17 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ben Jones: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
Our chance 9% · market 5%
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13
3 1 J Sam Twiston-Davies 19% T Oliver Signy 0/3 — / 4% 26.0 28.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 206-day break
Trainer Oliver Signy: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Sam Twiston-Davies: 19% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
Spotted wrong data? Report it