Friday 23 October › Dundalk › 19:45
Result
Race of the Day
19:45 · Dundalk (IRE)
Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)
1m? Standard? 2YO only · 14 ran €15,000 to the winner Mostly overcast
1 expert
Analyst verdict
Locked 12:30 BST · #eff90f · updated 19:13 BST (v2)
No standout value in this wide-open 14-runner maiden tonight.
None of the fancied runners look clearly undervalued against their market price tonight, so there's no strong case for backing one over the field. The two most interesting horses on recent form both come with price movements that raise more questions than they answer, so sitting this race out is the sensible call.
How the race should unfold With fourteen two-year-olds and no obvious pace-setter, expect a scrappy, disorganised start. This looks like a race that will be settled in the closing stages rather than on the front end, so horses with a turn of foot should have the edge in the straight.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Astroway The favourite, though lightly raced with just one run, where it was well beaten in a big field.
25% / 31%
2
Bobardi A first-time starter whose price has tumbled sharply, a strong hint that the yard fancies its chances.
22% / 3%
3
Might Just Be Wearing headgear for the first time and from a powerful yard, though first starters from this stable rarely win.
13% / 11%
4
The Captains Day Holds the strongest figures on form in this field and looks to be improving with a step up in distance.
11% / 4%
5
American Cowboy Beaten only narrowly in this same field a fortnight ago with a valid excuse, and ridden today by a jockey already successful.
7% / 4%
Red flags Several runners are first-time starters, so there is little reliable form to judge them on. A couple of fancied runners have seen notable price moves that don't clearly line up with their recent running, adding uncertainty. With fourteen runners and a likely messy pace, in-running luck could play a bigger part than usual.
Expert confidence? 1 expert
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Dundalk 1m–1m1f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led 0.82 2.03 — Prominent 1.24 1.05 0.93 Mid-div 0.75 0.78 1.03 Held up 0.37 0.71 0.64
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 39.94s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Astroway — 3rd.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (8)
No form J Donagh OConnor 6% T Robson Aguiar 1/13 — / 4% 21.0 24.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Robson Aguiar: 1/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Donagh OConnor: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Spotted wrong data? Report it
2 (17)
4 7 6 J Dylan Browne McMonagle 8% T M O'Callaghan 0/9 11% / 15% 6.80 7.00
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 38 days ago
Trainer M O'Callaghan: 0/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Our chance 11% · market 15%
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3 (2)
No form J Robbie Colgan 5% T Henry De Bromhead 7/34 — / 1% 140.0 170.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Henry De Bromhead: 7/34 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Robbie Colgan: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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4 (13)
4 J Luke McAteer 6% T Jack Foley 0/5 — / 3% 32.0 38.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Returns from a 69-day break
Trainer Jack Foley: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke McAteer: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
Spotted wrong data? Report it
5 (9)
3 J James Ryan 9% T Daniel G Murphy 1/10 7% / 4% 23.0 27.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 1
1 run here without a win
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer Daniel G Murphy: 1/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey James Ryan: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
Our chance 7% · market 4%
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6 (10)
5 J W J Lee 17% T David Marnane 0/5 25% / 23% 4.20 4.40
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
10 Oct 26 Naas 1m Soft — 5/18 4¾L 67.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer David Marnane: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey W J Lee: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/2 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/2
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 25% · market 23%
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7 (14)
0 5 4 3 J Chris Hayes 3% T Noel Meade 1/18 — / 4% 26.0 29.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer Noel Meade: 1/18 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Chris Hayes: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/2 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/4
Spotted wrong data? Report it
8 (16)
No form J Rory Mulligan (5) 0% T Alan McIntyre 0/3 — / 0% 300.0 790.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer Alan McIntyre: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rory Mulligan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Spotted wrong data? Report it
9 (15)
No form J Shane Foley 10% T Donnacha Aidan OBrien 0/7 13% / 12% 8.00 8.40
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer Donnacha Aidan OBrien: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Shane Foley: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Our chance 13% · market 12%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
10 (7)
4 J Paddy Harnett (3) 12% T Donnacha Aidan OBrien 0/7 — / 4% 21.0 24.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
First time in blinkers
Trainer Donnacha Aidan OBrien: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Paddy Harnett: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
Spotted wrong data? Report it
11 (6)
No form J Seamie Heffernan 4% T Donal Commins 0/1 — / 0% 290.0 740.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Donal Commins: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Seamie Heffernan: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Spotted wrong data? Report it
12 (3)
5 5 J Gary Carroll 5% T Gavin Cromwell 7/38 — / 1% 90.0 130.0
0 wins from 2 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer Gavin Cromwell: 7/38 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Gary Carroll: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
Spotted wrong data? Report it
13 (5)
No form J Ben Coen 12% T J P Murtagh 5/32 22% / 28% 3.50 3.55
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer J P Murtagh: 5/32 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ben Coen: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/1 Trip 1m: 1/1 Course AW: 1/1 Field 13+: 1/1
Our chance 22% · market 28%
Spotted wrong data? Report it
14 (1)
No form J Siobhan Rutledge 0% T Ms Sheila Lavery 1/5 — / 0% 220.0 560.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Ms Sheila Lavery: 1/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Siobhan Rutledge: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Spotted wrong data? Report it