Friday 23 October › Cheltenham › 16:10
McCoy Contractors Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)
Class 2? 2m 3f 200y? Good · GoingStick 6.3? 4YO plus · 7 ran £10,892 to the winner overcast and rain
5 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 12:16 BST · #d16d05 · updated 15:33 BST (v2)
A genuinely open novices' hurdle where no runner looks clearly underpriced enough to back.
No runner stands out as clearly better than its price once the risks are weighed up. The front two in the betting look fairly assessed, and the horses with bigger prices carry warning signs rather than hidden value, so there's no solid edge to back today.
How the race should unfold With no confirmed front-runner in the field, expect a fairly even gallop rather than a strong pace. The market leaders look like the two with the best claims, and there's little in the shape of the race to single out any one of them for an extra edge over what the betting already suggests.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Mr Hollywood The market's clear favourite, from a strong yard, though his experience so far has been on the Flat rather than over hurdles.
47% / 49%
2
Kingstonian Switched to hurdles for a powerful trainer and has a reasonable excuse for his last run, but steps up into tougher company today.
29% / 26%
3
Datstheholyallofit Trained by someone in excellent current form and improving fast, but jumps up sharply in class from much weaker tracks.
7% / 8%
4
Cosmos d'Ainay Has drifted a long way in the betting since the morning despite racing at what looks like his peak, which is more often a warning sign than a hidden chance.
4% / 10%
Red flags The favourite's form comes from Flat racing, so hurdling ability is still largely unproven. Kingstonian faces a notably stronger field than he's previously beaten. Datstheholyallofit's big step up in class from weaker tracks is a real risk, not just a form boost.
Expert confidence? 5 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 4m 54.50s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Mr Hollywood — 4th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
1 9 3 1 1 3 J Jack Kennedy 25% T Gordon Elliott 6/36 4% / 7% 14.5 15.0
3 wins from 8 · placed 6
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 30 days ago
Trainer Gordon Elliott: 6/36 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Kennedy: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 4/7 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 2/4 Course Stiff: 1/1 Class C2: 1/1 Field ≤ 8: 3/5
Our chance 4% · market 7%
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2
3 1 J Mr P W Mullins 33% T W P Mullins 3/23 47% / 45% 2.20 2.22
1 win from 4 · placed 3
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer W P Mullins: 3/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mr P W Mullins: 33% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/2 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/2 Course Stiff: 0/2 Class C2: 0/3 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
4 experts tipped this horse
Our chance 47% · market 45%
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3
4 1 2 3 1 1 J Brian Hughes 12% T Patrick Neville 2/7 7% / 9% 11.0 11.5
3 wins from 7 · placed 5
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Last ran 29 days ago
Trainer Patrick Neville: 2/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Brian Hughes: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 3/8 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 1/5 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 2/6
Our chance 7% · market 9%
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4
2 7 1 J Kielan Woods 33% T Nick Scholfield 0/12 — / 4% 23.0 24.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 228-day break
Trainer Nick Scholfield: 0/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kielan Woods: 33% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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5
2 2 5 7 0 J Ellis Collier 0% T Syd Hosie 0/2 — / 0% 740.0 960.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer Syd Hosie: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ellis Collier: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/3 Course Stiff: 0/3 Class C2: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
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6
3 J J J Slevin 20% T Joseph Patrick O'Brien 3/34 29% / 34% 2.94 2.96
1 win from 11 · placed 5
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 3/34 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey J J Slevin: 20% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/5 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 1/3
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 29% · market 34%
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7
5 8 3 J Sam Twiston-Davies 21% T N & W Twiston-Davies 6/22 — / 1% 85.0 100.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 16 days ago
Trainer N & W Twiston-Davies: 6/22 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Sam Twiston-Davies: 21% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C2: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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