No clear edge here — this looks like a genuinely open handicap chase.
None of the contenders offers enough of an edge over its market price to justify a bet, with the favourite facing a step up in test and the chasing pack all carrying their own question marks. Better to watch this one than back it.
How the race should unfoldBoultydoolin and Island Bridge both like to lead, so expect a brisk gallop from the front over this marathon trip on softening ground. That could backfire for one or both of them late on, leaving the race to be settled by whoever travels best through the closing stages rather than by pure pace.
#Contender and why we differ from the marketOurs ■ vs market ■Win chance
Heavily backed favourite who won easily last time, but this is her first handicap and only her second chase start, so there's more risk than the short price suggests.
Consistently among the first three all season, but has gone six races without winning, even when sent off as favourite, so there's little to suggest that changes today.
Returns from a long break stepping up in both distance and class, and was well beaten last time out, so the lack of market support looks justified.
8%/ —
Red flags
The two most likely pace-setters could both tire each other out early, clouding how the finish plays out.No runner arrives with a recent win behind them, making form hard to trust.Softening ground over this long trip could expose stamina issues not yet seen.