Wednesday 21 October › Worcester › 15:25
Richard And Ann Hitchings Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)
Class 4? 2m? Good-good to soft in places · GoingStick 6.3? 4YO plus · 10 ran £5,446 to the winner Light rain sunny from race 4 250
2 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:24 BST · #8706f2 · updated 14:40 BST (v2)
Three short-priced favourites but no real edge, so we're sitting this one out at Worcester.
The three horses with realistic chances are all short-priced favourites, and none stands out enough from the market to justify backing against that trend. Further down the field there's no horse with both a believable reason for past defeats and the form to back it up.
How the race should unfold Sapphos Word looks set to make the running again, having led and finished a close second twice before. Lune Brillante, dropping sharply in class, is the main danger and should track handily. Aeropress, an unraced type attracting strong market support, adds uncertainty but has nothing to prove her stamina or jumping yet.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Sapphos Word The only confirmed front-runner in the field, having led both starts and been beaten narrowly each time.
33% / 37%
2
Lune Brillante Drops markedly in class today and has a yard and jockey both in good form, though her last run needs the excuse to hold up.
28% / 35%
3
Aeropress Unraced, but a sharp market move suggests some confidence behind her despite having no form to judge.
23% / 12%
4
Jenny France Has modest form from a single start and returns after a long layoff, without a clear reason to expect improvement.
7% / 9%
Red flags All three main contenders are short-priced favourites, and backing odds-on chances rarely pays off over time. Aeropress is unraced, so her market support isn't backed up by any proven form. Lune Brillante's most recent run was well below par and relies on an unproven excuse.
Expert confidence? 2 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 4m 03.87s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Sapphos Word — 2nd.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
2 1 4 J Brendan Powell 34% T Joe Tizzard 9/30 7% / 13% 7.60 7.80
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 221-day break
Trainer Joe Tizzard: 9/30 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Brendan Powell: 34% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C4: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/2
Our chance 7% · market 13%
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2
5 J Freddie Gingell 0% T Joe Tizzard 9/30 — / 1% 120.0 160.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 219-day break
Trainer Joe Tizzard: 9/30 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Freddie Gingell: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/2 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C4: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
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3
1 6 0 J Harry Skelton 30% T D Skelton 17/80 28% / 26% 3.80 3.85
1 win from 3 · placed 1
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 228-day break
Trainer D Skelton: 17/80 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Harry Skelton: 30% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 1/1 Trip 2m: 1/3 Course Galloping: 1/3 Class C4: 1/1 Field 9–12: 2/3
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 28% · market 26%
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4
1 2 2 J G Sheehan 29% T Jamie Snowden 6/16 33% / 27% 3.60 3.65
0 wins from 2 · placed 2
1 run at around this trip without a win
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer Jamie Snowden: 6/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey G Sheehan: 29% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C4: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/2
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 33% · market 27%
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5
U J Paul O'Brien 8% T Harry Derham 0/10 23% / 30% 3.25 3.30
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 235-day break
Trainer Harry Derham: 0/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Paul O'Brien: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C4: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
Our chance 23% · market 30%
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6
5 5 J David Noonan 0% T Nigel Hawke 0/2 — / 0% 510.0 820.0
0 wins from 2 · placed 0
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 314-day break
Trainer Nigel Hawke: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey David Noonan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C4: 0/3 Field 9–12: 0/1
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7
6 P J C J Todd 0% T David Dennis 0/3 — / 0% 1000.0 —
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 170-day break
Trainer David Dennis: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey C J Todd: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/2 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C4: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/1
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8
B J Conor Ring 0% T Mrs C Williams 1/21 — / 0% 580.0 1000.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 200-day break
Trainer Mrs C Williams: 1/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Conor Ring: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C4: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/2
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9
9 0 7 J Kielan Woods 29% T Shaun Lycett 0/4 — / 0% 1000.0 —
0 wins from 3 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Last ran 57 days ago
Trainer Shaun Lycett: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kielan Woods: 29% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/4 Course Galloping: 0/3 Class C4: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/2
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10
No form J Robert Dunne 0% T D Skelton 17/80 — / 2% 50.0 55.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer D Skelton: 17/80 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Robert Dunne: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C4: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
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