Wednesday 21 October › Newmarket › 16:10
CopyBet Follow Us On X Fillies' Handicap
Class 3? Handicap? 1m? Good to soft · GoingStick 6.4? 3YO plus · 5 ran £10,308 to the winner Overcast heavy rain before race 1 150
9 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:26 BST · #487f9d · updated 15:24 BST (v2)
No clear edge in this tight five-runner fillies' handicap at Newmarket.
The three market leaders are too evenly matched for any of them to stand out as a genuine value play. The two outsiders each carry a significant doubt — a long layoff for one, fading form for the other — that outweighs their appeal.
How the race should unfold Just five run, with three closely matched favourites and two outsiders further back. Only one filly is a natural front-runner, so the rest will be ridden from behind, meaning this is likely to be settled in the final stretch.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Luna Celeste Luna Celeste has the strongest recent form and is the only one who likes to set the pace, though today's conditions may blunt that advantage.
30% / 28%
2
Callianassa Callianassa won impressively in a big field not long ago and is still on the up, but she steps up in class with a stable that hasn't been firing.
28% / 27%
3
Proposal Proposal carries the lightest weight and has a fair excuse for her last run, but she rates below the other two market leaders.
24% / 26%
4
Previous Previous looks capable of better and drops in class after a year off, but that long absence and a cautionary note from her past starts make her a risk.
11% / 9%
5
Harlequin Breeze Harlequin Breeze is below her best form and has been easing in the market, usually a sign that support isn't behind her.
7% / 11%
Red flags The three favourites are priced too closely together to pick out real value. Previous hasn't raced in close to a year, which is a lot to ask fitness-wise. Harlequin Breeze's price has been drifting, often a sign of fading confidence.
Expert confidence? 9 experts
Proposal 5 experts · 5 with a strong record
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Newmarket 1m–1m1f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 0.84 0.76 0.82 Mid-div 1.08 0.44 0.76 Held up 1.12 1.72 1.26
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 41.37s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Luna Celeste — 3rd.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (4)
1 2 1 3 J D Egan 14% T K P De Foy 2/17 11% / 7% 14.5 15.0
2 wins from 4 · placed 4
Won 1 of 3 at around this trip
Returns from a 354-day break
Trainer K P De Foy: 2/17 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Egan: 14% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m: 1/4 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C3: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 1/3
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 11% · market 7%
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2 (3)
2 1 2 1 1 3 J Saffie Osborne 12% T Tom Clover 2/9 30% / 29% 3.40 3.45
3 wins from 7 · placed 7
Won 2 of 4 at around this trip
Last ran 46 days ago
Trainer Tom Clover: 2/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Saffie Osborne: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 2/5 Course Galloping: 2/5 Class C3: 1/2 Field ≤ 8: 2/4
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 30% · market 29%
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3 (1)
7 0 6 8 3 1 J W Buick 33% T Brian Ellison 4/24 28% / 33% 3.00 3.05
5 wins from 44 · placed 14
Won 4 of 14 at around this trip
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer Brian Ellison: 4/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey W Buick: 33% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 1/6 Trip 1m: 5/15 Course Galloping: 2/11 Class C3: 1/2 Field ≤ 8: 1/10
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 28% · market 33%
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4 (2)
2 0 4 1 0 7 J Jack Callan 27% T Jane Chapple-Hyam 1/6 7% / 9% 11.0 11.5
1 win from 8 · placed 2
Won 1 of 4 at around this trip
Returns from a 102-day break
Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam: 1/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Callan: 27% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m: 1/5 Course Galloping: 1/9 Class C3: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 1/2
Our chance 7% · market 9%
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5 (5)
4 2 1 4 5 2 J Tom Marquand 21% T W J Haggas 9/49 24% / 22% 4.50 4.70
1 win from 7 · placed 3
1 run here without a win
Last ran 46 days ago
Trainer W J Haggas: 9/49 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Tom Marquand: 21% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m: 0/3 Course Galloping: 1/4 Class C3: 0/3 Field ≤ 8: 0/5
5 experts tipped this horse · 5 with a strong record
Our chance 24% · market 22%
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