Wednesday 21 October › Kempton Park › 18:30
Try Unibet's Improved Acca Boosts Nursery
Class 5? Handicap? 7f? Standard to slow? 2YO only · 14 ran £4,187 to the winner Light rain
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:31 BST · #c9c006 · updated 17:58 BST (v2)
A competitive Kempton nursery with no horse standing out enough to back.
None of tonight's contenders offers a clear enough edge over its market price, and the strongest signal on the favourite is contradictory, so there's no confident bet to make in this race.
How the race should unfold Fourteen two-year-olds line up over seven furlongs on Kempton's all-weather, with no confirmed front-runner. A couple of pace types may fight for an early lead, so the race could turn messy, leaving it open for whoever travels smoothest through the second half and finds space late.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Sakowin Sent off favourite after a sharp overnight drop in price, but a well below-par run last time makes the market move hard to trust fully.
17% / 12%
2
Farasan Had a clear excuse last time against stronger rivals than today, wears a tongue-tie for the first time, with a jockey already on the scoresheet today.
14% / 14%
3
Arthur Carrot Comes from a yard and jockey both in good form, having already struck today, even without an obvious uptick in form of its own.
11% / 11%
4
Great Oak Drops sharply in class and has won before over this sort of trip, though its underlying form doesn't quite match the respect it's getting in the market.
10% / 12%
5
Gold Reef City Price has shortened sharply overnight, the stable has already won today, and it was only narrowly beaten last time out at this same track.
10% / 4%
Red flags The favourite's price drop clashes with a poor recent run, which is a mixed signal rather than a reliable one. Early pace looks unsettled with more than one speed horse in the field, which could make the race hard to predict. None of the contenders clearly stands out from its market price, so there's limited value on offer tonight.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Kempton Park 7f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led 2.12 1.47 1.73 Prominent 0.97 1.47 1.06 Mid-div 1.21 1.25 0.45 Held up 0.20 0.42 0.43
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 27.53s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Sakowin — 3rd.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (10)
2 3 3
J David Probert 11%
T A M Balding 10/48
— / 5%
20.0 21.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 3
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 32 days ago
Trainer A M Balding: 10/48 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey David Probert: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/3 Course AW: 0/1 Class C5: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/1
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2 (7)
2 6 3
J Billy Loughnane 18%
T G Boughey 6/29
11% / 10%
10.0 10.5
0 wins from 3 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer G Boughey: 6/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Billy Loughnane: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/2 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 11% · market 10%
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3 (1)
1 6
J Pierre-Louis Jamin 0%
T K R Burke 4/29
10% / 9%
11.0 11.5
1 win from 2 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer K R Burke: 4/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/2 Course AW: 0/1 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 10% · market 9%
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4 (5)
0 2 3 1
J Luke Morris 11%
T Jack Jones 3/8
— / 2%
42.0 46.0
1 win from 4 · placed 3
Won 1 of 3 at around this trip
Last ran 30 days ago
Trainer Jack Jones: 3/8 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke Morris: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/3 Trip 7f: 1/4 Course AW: 1/3 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/2
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5 (2)
6 4 4 8
J Oisin Murphy 21%
T J & T Gosden 4/27
14% / 12%
8.40 8.80
0 wins from 4 · placed 0
2 runs here without a win
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer J & T Gosden: 4/27 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Oisin Murphy: 21% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/3 Trip 7f: 0/3 Course AW: 0/3 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Our chance 14% · market 12%
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6 (6)
6 7 1 6
J R Havlin 6%
T James Owen 9/56
— / 8%
12.0 12.5
1 win from 4 · placed 1
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer James Owen: 9/56 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey R Havlin: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 1/3 Course AW: 0/1 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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7 (9)
3 4 6 2 5
J Daniel Muscutt 19%
T Adam Kirby 2/18
— / 9%
10.5 11.5
0 wins from 5 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer Adam Kirby: 2/18 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Daniel Muscutt: 19% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/3 Trip 7f: 1/1 Course AW: 1/3 Class C5: 1/3 Field 13+: 1/2
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8 (14)
5 9 2 4
J Rob Hornby 7%
T Brian Meehan 1/8
— / 1%
100.0 140.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 100-day break
Trainer Brian Meehan: 1/8 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rob Hornby: 7% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 7f: 0/2 Course AW: 0/2 Class C5: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/1
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9 (8)
2 4 7
J Cieren Fallon 13%
T W J Haggas 10/50
— / 8%
11.5 12.5
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
First time in blinkers
Trainer W J Haggas: 10/50 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Cieren Fallon: 13% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C5: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/1
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10 (13)
6 5 8
J Callum Shepherd 0%
T G Boughey 6/29
— / 2%
50.0 60.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer G Boughey: 6/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Callum Shepherd: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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11 (3)
3 6 4 3
J Charles Bishop 4%
T Eve Johnson Houghton 1/11
— / 7%
13.0 14.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 30 days ago
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton: 1/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Charles Bishop: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 7f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C5: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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12 (4)
8 5 9 1 0
J Finley Marsh 9%
T Richard Hughes 2/18
17% / 16%
6.20 6.40
1 win from 5 · placed 1
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Last ran 33 days ago
Trainer Richard Hughes: 2/18 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Finley Marsh: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/2 Trip 7f: 1/4 Course AW: 1/2 Class C5: 0/1 Field 13+: 1/2
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 17% · market 16%
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13 (12)
7 3 5 5
J Rossa Ryan 12%
T R M Beckett 4/37
10% / 8%
12.0 12.5
0 wins from 4 · placed 1
1 run here without a win
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer R M Beckett: 4/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rossa Ryan: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 7f: 0/2 Course AW: 0/2 Class C5: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
Our chance 10% · market 8%
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14 (11)
3 8 3 8 6 7
J Jack Dace (5) 0%
T R M Beckett 4/37
— / 3%
36.0 42.0
0 wins from 6 · placed 2
1 run here without a win
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer R M Beckett: 4/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Dace: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 7f: 0/4 Course AW: 0/2 Class C5: 0/4 Field 13+: 0/2
Spotted wrong data? Report it