Wednesday 21 October › Fontwell Park › 15:07
BetGoodwin Mares' Handicap Hurdle
Class 5? Handicap? 2m 3f 29y? Good to soft-good in places on hurdle course · GoingStick 4.9? 4YO plus · 6 ran £3,248 to the winner Overcast
3 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:23 BST · #124efe · updated 14:22 BST (v2)
Inion Tiogair's proven form at this trip makes her the one to beat here.
Market (Betfair)?
22% 7.40
Confidence?
How the race should unfold No obvious pace-setter in this small, moderate field, so the race should be run steadily and decided in the closing stages, with this intermediate hurdle trip on softening ground likely to be the key factor.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Inion Tiogair Three wins at this exact trip in the past year, always with the same jockey on board, suggest she's better than her current price reflects.
25% / 22%
2
Diamond White The favourite, but below her best last time with jumping errors, and this run brings wind surgery plus a tongue tie for the first time.
23% / 29%
3
Eastern Shores Has run against some well-performing rivals in the past and touched a higher level than this field, though her latest run was disappointing.
19% / 17%
4
Border Gem Dropping in class and shortening in the betting, but a sharp cut in distance from her recent races leaves a question mark.
18% / 17%
5
Follow The Plan Has faced some useful fields in a short career, but is rated below this company and the case for her is too thin.
8% / 8%
Red flags Inion Tiogair is returning from a long break and her price has already moved slightly against her. Diamond White's breathing surgery and tongue tie are new, untested changes for her. Border Gem's sharp drop in trip compared with her recent races is unproven.
Expert confidence? 3 experts
Our analyst and the proven experts agree on Inion Tiogair.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 5m 04.80s · Report
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
5 3 1 8 7 P J Adam Wedge 5% T Mrs C Williams 1/23 — / 9% 10.5 11.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Returns from a 254-day break
Trainer Mrs C Williams: 1/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Adam Wedge: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/1 Class C5: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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2
4 2 1 3 1 1 J Joe Anderson (3) 25% T Grace Harris 2/11 25% / 14% 7.40 7.60
4 wins from 23 · placed 10
Won 3 of 5 at around this trip
Returns from a 193-day break
Trainer Grace Harris: 2/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Joe Anderson: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 2/9 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 3/9 Course Tight: 1/9 Class C5: 3/13 Field ≤ 8: 0/9
2 experts tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 25% · market 14%
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3
3 2 7 2 2 6 J R P McLernon 19% T J & A O'Neill 5/29 23% / 30% 3.35 3.40
0 wins from 7 · placed 5
1 run here without a win
First time in a tongue strap
Trainer J & A O'Neill: 5/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey R P McLernon: 19% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 1/4 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 1/5 Course Tight: 1/4 Class C5: 1/4 Field ≤ 8: 1/4
Our chance 23% · market 30%
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4
3 3 2 5 6 7 J Jack Hogan 36% T F O'Brien 4/24 19% / 20% 5.10 5.20
0 wins from 10 · placed 4
1 run here without a win
Returns from a 155-day break
Trainer F O'Brien: 4/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Hogan: 36% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/4 Course Tight: 0/6 Class C5: 0/4 Field ≤ 8: 0/7
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 19% · market 20%
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5
2 4 5 2 5 5 J Rex Dingle 0% T Jeremy Scott 0/5 18% / 21% 4.70 4.80
0 wins from 11 · placed 3
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 162-day break
Trainer Jeremy Scott: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rex Dingle: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/4 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/6 Course Tight: 0/6 Class C5: 0/5 Field ≤ 8: 0/11
Our chance 18% · market 21%
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6
9 3 9 J Conor O'Farrell 36% T D Pipe 1/7 8% / 7% 13.0 14.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
First time in a hood
Trainer D Pipe: 1/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Conor O'Farrell: 36% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/4 Course Tight: 0/3 Class C5: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
Our chance 8% · market 7%
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