Tuesday 20 October › Hexham › 16:50
Result
Race of the Day
16:50 · Hexham
Northumbria Leisure Handicap Chase
Class 5? Handicap? 3m 41y? Good · GoingStick 6.7? 4YO plus · 8 ran £5,413 to the winner Overcast
5 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:41 BST · #9b0c15 · updated 16:06 BST (v2)
Super Citizen looks underpriced after a close, battling run over this same course and distance.
Market (Betfair)?
10% 10.5
Confidence?
How the race should unfold Lights Are Green is the only confirmed front-runner and may try to make all, but he has failed to finish twice before and trailed badly behind Super Citizen in this same race recently. Favourite Stay Hopeful should race close to the pace, fresh from a course-and-distance win here. The finish is likely to come from this leading group.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Stay Hopeful Stay Hopeful won at this course over this same distance only a few weeks ago and has run again since, pointing to a stable with him fit and ready.
42% / 42%
2
Luminaries Luminaries arrives on the back of two straight wins and is clearly in good form, though his price already seems to reflect that.
16% / 16%
3
C'Mon So C'Mon So has been a steady mid-pack finisher from a yard in decent form, without a standout recent performance to point to.
12% / 12%
4
Super Citizen Super Citizen was beaten by only a whisker in a stronger race here over this same trip recently, well clear that day of today's rival Lights Are Green.
11% / 10%
5
Lights Are Green Lights Are Green is the one proven front-runner and may try to lead throughout, but he has failed to finish twice before and was well held by Super Citizen last time out.
6% / 5%
Red flags Super Citizen's price has drifted out since the morning, suggesting the market isn't backing this view. It's a small field, which can make results less predictable. Chase favourites carry extra risk because a fall or error can end their race in an instant.
Expert confidence? 5 experts
Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 6m 43.90s · Report
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
1 4 3 2 3 4 J Brian Hughes 12% T Lucinda Hughes 0/3 11% / 10% 10.5 11.0
5 wins from 52 · placed 22
Won 1 of 14 at around this trip
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer Lucinda Hughes: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Brian Hughes: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/18 Trip 3m+: 3/41 Course Stiff: 2/12 Class C5: 2/16 Field ≤ 8: 2/15
Our chance 11% · market 10%
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2
2 1 2 7 2 6 J Jonathan England 25% T S England 3/21 — / 10% 9.40 9.80
3 wins from 20 · placed 11
2 runs here without a win
Returns from a 150-day break
Trainer S England: 3/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jonathan England: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/8 Trip 3m+: 1/12 Course Stiff: 0/3 Class C5: 3/18 Field ≤ 8: 2/10
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3
B 2 1 P 0 4 J Derek Fox 29% T Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 8/37 — / 5% 18.0 19.5
1 win from 19 · placed 8
8 runs here without a win
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore: 8/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Derek Fox: 29% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/12 Trip 3m+: 1/12 Course Stiff: 0/10 Class C5: 1/16 Field ≤ 8: 1/7
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4
4 P 8 2 7 U J Bruce Lynn 0% T N W Alexander 0/14 — / 3% 28.0 30.0
0 wins from 12 · placed 3
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer N W Alexander: 0/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Bruce Lynn: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 3m+: 0/2 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C5: 0/8 Field ≤ 8: 0/4
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5
4 6 7 3 1 2 J S Bowen 27% T Cian Collins 1/9 42% / 48% 2.10 2.12
1 win from 9 · placed 3
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Last ran 2 days ago
Trainer Cian Collins: 1/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey S Bowen: 27% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/7 Trip 3m+: 1/2 Course Stiff: 1/2 Class C5: 1/7 Field ≤ 8: 1/4
3 experts tipped this horse · 3 with a strong record
Our chance 42% · market 48%
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7
P P 3 P 4 5 J Jonathon Bewley 25% T George Bewley 1/5 6% / 5% 19.5 21.0
3 wins from 30 · placed 10
Course winner: 1 win from 11 here
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer George Bewley: 1/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jonathon Bewley: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/20 Trip 3m+: 3/25 Course Stiff: 1/12 Class C5: 2/18 Field ≤ 8: 1/14
Our chance 6% · market 5%
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8
9 6 6 4 3 4 J Patrick Wadge 15% T Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore 8/37 12% / 17% 5.90 6.00
0 wins from 9 · placed 1
3 runs here without a win
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore: 8/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Patrick Wadge: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/7 Trip 3m+: 1/4 Course Stiff: 1/4 Class C5: 1/7 Field ≤ 8: 1/4
Our chance 12% · market 17%
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9
7 2 P 5 5 6 J William Maggs (3) 0% T Gillian Boanas 0/3 — / 2% 48.0 55.0
3 wins from 48 · placed 22
Course winner: 1 win from 10 here
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer Gillian Boanas: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey William Maggs: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/24 Trip 3m+: 1/27 Course Stiff: 3/18 Class C5: 2/26 Field ≤ 8: 1/25
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