Monday 19 October › Gowran Park › 15:10
Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden (Smullen Series)
1m 75y? Yielding to soft? 2YO only · 15 ran €15,000 to the winner light showers
5 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:47 BST · #1675e7 · updated 14:30 BST (v2)
A wide open maiden with no standout value on offer, so we are sitting this one out.
None of the fancied runners offer enough of a gap between their true chance and their price once costs are factored in. The favourites promising hidden form does not justify backing her at such a short price, and the best value outsiders simply do not have enough supporting evidence to take a stand.
How the race should unfold Fifteen fillies making the step up, with no obvious pace in the race. Expect a steady gallop with it all boiling down to the closing stages, giving hold up types every chance of getting involved late.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Churchill Bond The favourite has faced much stronger company than this before, with several of those rivals going on to win, but her short price leaves little room for error.
28% / 42%
2
Katiraya Has twice held her own as a big outsider in tougher, bigger fields, which hints at more ability than her finishing positions suggest.
15% / 11%
3
Handsoffshesmine Was only narrowly beaten on her debut and gets a handy draw this time.
11% / 8%
4
Why Oh Why Already has experience of this course, finishing third, and the trip should suit, though her form dipped a touch last time.
10% / 8%
5
Drumbinion Lass Had a reasonable excuse for her last defeat, though there is little else to back that up.
8% / 6%
Red flags No clear pace horse in the field, so the gallop and final furlong positioning are hard to predict. The favourites price is already short, leaving little margin if her better form does not translate. Most runners are lightly raced maidens, so there is limited solid evidence to judge true ability.
Expert confidence? 5 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Gowran Park 1m–1m1f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 1.20 0.54 1.12 Mid-div 0.79 1.35 0.61 Held up 0.60 0.58 0.65
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 53.69s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Churchill Bond — won.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (14)
7 5 3 3 J W J Lee 17% T P Twomey 3/11 28% / 57% 1.74 1.75
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer P Twomey: 3/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey W J Lee: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 1/1 Trip 1m: 1/1 Course Undulating: 1/1 Field 13+: 1/2
5 experts tipped this horse · 5 with a strong record
Our chance 28% · market 57%
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2 (15)
4 J Gary Carroll 5% T Gavin Cromwell 7/37 — / 3% 30.0 36.0
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
04 Oct 26 Curragh 7f Straight: yielding to soft; round: good to yielding — 4/7 8¾L 41.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer Gavin Cromwell: 7/37 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Gary Carroll: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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3 (10)
9 J Wesley Joyce 0% T Eoin Doyle 0/4 — / 0% 1000.0 —
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
08 Oct 26 Thurles 1m 69y Good-good to yielding in places — 9/10 19½L 401.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer Eoin Doyle: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Wesley Joyce: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/2 Course Undulating: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/1
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4 (3)
No form J J M Sheridan 0% T Andrew Kinirons 0/5 — / 8% 11.5 12.5
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Andrew Kinirons: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey J M Sheridan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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5 (2)
6 J Shane Foley 10% T Andrew Slattery 6/32 11% / 7% 13.5 14.5
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer Andrew Slattery: 6/32 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Shane Foley: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Our chance 11% · market 7%
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6 (5)
No form J Seamie Heffernan 4% T Andrew Slattery 6/32 — / 1% 100.0 170.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Andrew Slattery: 6/32 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Seamie Heffernan: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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7 (4)
8 5 0 J Chris Hayes 3% T D K Weld 1/16 15% / 7% 13.5 14.5
0 wins from 2 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 41 days ago
Trainer D K Weld: 1/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Chris Hayes: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/3
Our chance 15% · market 7%
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8 (6)
No form J Ben Coen 12% T J P Murtagh 5/32 — / 9% 10.5 11.5
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer J P Murtagh: 5/32 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ben Coen: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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9 (8)
4 J James Ryan 9% T T G McCourt 1/16 8% / 0% 210.0 1000.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer T G McCourt: 1/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey James Ryan: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/2 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
Our chance 8% · market 0%
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10 (13)
6 J Andrew Slattery 20% T Andrew Slattery 6/32 — / 5% 21.0 23.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Andrew Slattery: 6/32 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Andrew Slattery: 20% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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11 (12)
No form J Nathan Crosse 0% T John S ODonoghue 0/4 — / 0% 250.0 1000.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer John S ODonoghue: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Nathan Crosse: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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12 (11)
0 8 8 0 0 J Mel Sheridan (7) 20% T Denis Gerard Hogan 1/14 — / 0% 360.0 1000.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
First time in cheekpieces
Trainer Denis Gerard Hogan: 1/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mel Sheridan: 20% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/4
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13 (1)
9 J Siobhan Rutledge 0% T Noel Meade 1/17 — / 0% 340.0 880.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 10 days ago
Trainer Noel Meade: 1/17 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Siobhan Rutledge: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/2
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14 (7)
0 J Jack Cleary (5) 0% T Peter McCreery 0/2 — / 0% 1000.0 —
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer Peter McCreery: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Cleary: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Undulating: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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15 (9)
3 6 J Reese Holohan (5) 3% T James Peter Dowling 0/1 10% / 2% 38.0 46.0
0 wins from 2 · placed 1
1 run here without a win
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer James Peter Dowling: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Reese Holohan: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/2 Course Undulating: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/2
Our chance 10% · market 2%
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