Result Race of the Day 18:30 · Southwell

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Class 5Handicap6f 16yStandard2YO only · 13 ran£3,978 to the winnerLight rain 4 experts

Analyst verdict Locked 09:58 BST · #1d8e70 · updated 17:56 BST (v2)

A crowded, wide-open handicap where no horse looks clearly underpriced.

None of today's contenders look clearly underpriced once recent form is weighed against the weight they are carrying. The two most likely winners both shoulder a big weight for this grade, a combination that has a poor track record, while the shorter-priced outsiders have moved too far in the market to back with confidence.

How the race should unfoldThis is a packed two-year-old handicap with no standout favourite. The two most fancied horses, who recently filled the first two places over this course and distance, look likely to set and control the pace between them, leaving little encouragement for those further back.

Lady Henshaw

Lady Henshaw won here over this trip in better company last time, but she now carries a big weight and her price already reflects that form.

19% / 14%

Casino Star

Casino Star was runner-up in a handicap at this course last time and is with a yard in good form, with her price looking a fair reflection of that.

18% / 10%

Valdoro

Valdoro has shortened sharply after dropping into easier company and nearly winning last time, but she carries a big weight and looks the weakest on ability among the main contenders.

12% / 4%

Dowman

Dowman is from a yard in good form that has already won today, but that is already built into the price, and a big morning price move adds to the doubt.

10% / 16%

Grey Tamam

Grey Tamam has some promising form figures hidden behind her finishing positions, but she has shortened so much in the market today that the price is hard to trust.

7% / 18%

Red flags

The two most fancied horses both carry a notably big weight for this grade, a combination that has often disappointed in similar races.Some outsiders have moved a long way in the betting today, which makes their current price harder to rely on.With 13 runners and no clear leader, the pace and shape of the race are hard to predict.

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Expert confidence

4 experts

Lady Henshaw (IRE)

2 experts · 2 with a strong record

Casino Star (IRE)

2 experts · 1 with a strong record

Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.

Betfair Exchange · Win

Casino Star (IRE)4.804.90

Lady Henshaw (IRE)5.505.60

Dowman (IRE)7.808.00

Valdoro (IRE)8.008.20

Sioux Moon11.512.5

Louis The Fifth (IRE)14.515.0

Casino Star (IRE): 5.20 at 17:30 → 4.90 at 18:29.

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Track bias · Southwell 5f–6f

Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons

Low drawMiddleHigh draw Led1.400.711.40Prominent0.791.171.41Mid-div0.951.001.02Held up0.580.630.70

Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.

Result

Official · time 1m 15.44s · Report

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Beaten	SP	BSP
1	Valdoro (IRE)	George Wood	Dylan Cunha	—	6.50	8.20
2	Miss Havisham (IRE)	S H James	K A Ryan	nk	26.0	40.0
3	Dowman (IRE)	Billy Loughnane	G Boughey	¾L	6.50	9.00
4	Louis The Fifth (IRE)	Callum Shepherd	M L W Bell	1½L	13.0	20.0
5	Sioux Moon	Paddy Bradley	Charlie Fellowes	1¾L	9.50	14.6
6	Grey Tamam (IRE)	Luke Morris	J Tate	3L	11.0	11.2
7	Wait Geordie	Luke Catton	H Palmer	4½L	19.0	23.0
8	North Star Kodi (IRE)	Oisin McSweeney	R A Fahey	5¼L	21.0	21.0
9	Donegal Rose (IRE)	Mason Paetel	H Palmer	5¾L	67.0	114.8
10	Casino Star (IRE)	Pierre-Louis Jamin	K R Burke	6¼L	4.00	4.70
11	Holi Scarlett (IRE)	Jack Dace	Stuart Williams	7½L	41.0	57.6
12	Bahia Bonita	Jack Nicholls	Jack Jones	7¾L	17.0	30.0
13	Lady Henshaw (IRE)	Jason Hart	Patrick Owens	13¾L	5.00	5.85

How our analyst did

No bet. Our top-rated contender: Lady Henshaw — 13th.

Runners

Form, oldest → latest Suitability: strong good untried poor Bookmaker prices — coming soon

1 (4)

Valdoro (IRE)

2yo · 9-9 · OR 75

6349 J George Wood 3% T Dylan Cunha 4/20 12% / 12% 8.00 8.20

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
24 Sep 26	Newmarket	5f	Good	C3	9/11	3½L	19.0
11 Sep 26	Sandown Park	5f 10y	Soft	C4	4/7	8½L	4.50
29 Aug 26	Windsor	6f 12y	Good	C4	3/9	2¾L	13.0

0 wins from 4 · placed 1

2 runs at around this trip without a win

Last ran 25 days ago

Trainer Dylan Cunha: 4/20 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey George Wood: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 1/1Trip 6f: 1/3Course AW: 1/1Class C5: 1/1Field 13+: 1/1

Our chance 12% · market 12%

Full profile →Jockey George Wood Trainer Dylan Cunha

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2 (11)

Lady Henshaw (IRE)

2yo · 9-9 · OR 75

721 J Jason Hart 8% T Patrick Owens 0/7 19% / 18% 5.50 5.60

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
24 Sep 26	Southwell	6f 16y	Standard	C4	1/11	—	4.00
05 Aug 26	Pontefract	6f	Good To Firm	C4	2/8	½L	5.00
17 Jul 26	Newbury	6f	Good To Firm	C4	7/11	5½L	13.0

1 win from 3 · placed 2

Course winner: 1 win from 1 here

Last ran 25 days ago

Trainer Patrick Owens: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Jason Hart: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 1/2Trip 6f: 1/4Course AW: 1/2Class C5: 0/1Field 13+: 0/1

2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record

Our chance 19% · market 18%

Full profile →Jockey Jason Hart Trainer Patrick Owens

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3 (5)

Grey Tamam (IRE)

2yo · 9-9 · OR 75

382 J Luke Morris 11% T J Tate 3/15 7% / 6% 15.5 16.5

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
14 Sep 26	Kempton Park	6f	Standard To Slow	C4	2/8	hd	3.25
23 Jul 26	Sandown Park	7f	Good To Firm	C1	8/8	9¾L	17.0
02 Jul 26	Nottingham	6f 18y	Good To Firm	C3	3/6	1¾L	6.50

0 wins from 3 · placed 2

2 runs at around this trip without a win

Last ran 35 days ago

Trainer J Tate: 3/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Luke Morris: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/2Trip 6f: 0/3Course AW: 0/2Class C5: 0/1Field 13+: 0/1

Our chance 7% · market 6%

Full profile →Jockey Luke Morris Trainer J Tate

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4 (13)

Wait Geordie

2yo · 9-8 · OR 74

878596 J Luke Catton (3) 0% T H Palmer 1/25 — / 4% 27.0 28.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
09 Oct 26	Kempton Park	6f	Standard to slow	C5	6/10	1¾L	21.0
11 Sep 26	Doncaster	6f 2y	Good	C4	9/15	7¼L	41.0
05 Aug 26	Great Yarmouth	5f 42y	Good To Firm	C4	5/5	1½L	6.00

1 win from 8 · placed 2

2 runs at around this trip without a win

Last ran 10 days ago

Trainer H Palmer: 1/25 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Luke Catton: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/2Trip 6f: 0/3Course AW: 0/2Class C5: 0/2Field 13+: 0/3

Full profile →Jockey Luke Catton Trainer H Palmer

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5 (9)

Dowman (IRE) t

2yo · 9-7 · OR 73

221252 J Billy Loughnane 18% T G Boughey 6/29 10% / 13% 7.80 8.00

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
12 Sep 26	Bath	5f 10y	Good	C5	2/10	1½L	7.00
29 Aug 26	Chepstow	5f 16y	Good to Soft (Soft in places)	C5	5/6	7½L	4.00
05 Aug 26	Great Yarmouth	5f 42y	Good To Firm	C4	2/5	1L	3.00

1 win from 6 · placed 5

First time at this course and trip

Last ran 37 days ago

Trainer G Boughey: 6/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Billy Loughnane: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/1Trip 6f: 0/2Course AW: 0/1Class C5: 1/5Field 13+: 0/1

Our chance 10% · market 13%

Full profile →Jockey Billy Loughnane Trainer G Boughey

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6 (1)

Louis The Fifth (IRE) p

2yo · 9-7 · OR 73

32458 J Callum Shepherd 0% T M L W Bell 0/18 — / 7% 14.5 15.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
30 Sep 26	Kempton Park	7f	Standard to slow	C5	8/13	7½L	10.0
10 Sep 26	Epsom Downs	7f 3y	Good To Soft	C3	5/10	4½L	6.00
31 Jul 26	Newmarket	6f	Good To Firm	C4	4/7	4L	6.00

0 wins from 5 · placed 2

2 runs at around this trip without a win

Last ran 19 days ago

Trainer M L W Bell: 0/18 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Callum Shepherd: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/2Trip 6f: 0/3Course AW: 0/2Class C5: 0/2Field 13+: 0/2

Full profile →Jockey Callum Shepherd Trainer M L W Bell

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7 (6)

Casino Star (IRE) t

2yo · 9-7 · OR 73

623582 J Pierre-Louis Jamin 0% T K R Burke 4/29 18% / 20% 4.80 4.90

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
08 Oct 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C4	2/7	¾L	11.0
05 Sep 26	Thirsk	5f	Good To Soft	C4	8/9	7¾L	12.0
20 Aug 26	Newcastle	5f	Standard	C4	5/6	3¾L	4.00

0 wins from 7 · placed 4

1 run here without a win

Last ran 11 days ago

Trainer K R Burke: 4/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/3Trip 6f: 0/3Course AW: 0/3Class C5: 0/1Field 13+: 0/1

2 experts tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record

Our chance 18% · market 20%

Full profile →Jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin Trainer K R Burke

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8 (2)

Miss Havisham (IRE)

2yo · 9-5 · OR 71

33 J S H James 8% T K A Ryan 3/22 — / 2% 42.0 46.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
03 Jul 26	Beverley	5f	Good To Firm	C4	3/7	3¼L	4.50
18 May 26	Carlisle	5f	Good	C2	3/4	14¼L	4.50

0 wins from 2 · placed 2

First time at this course and trip

Returns from a 108-day break

Trainer K A Ryan: 3/22 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey S H James: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/1Trip 6f: 0/1Course AW: 0/1Class C5: 0/1Field 13+: 0/1

Full profile →Jockey S H James Trainer K A Ryan

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9 (7)

Bahia Bonita

2yo · 9-3 · OR 69

431 J Jack Nicholls (3) 13% T Jack Jones 3/8 — / 3% 29.0 32.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
19 Sep 26	Newcastle	6f	Standard	C5	1/10	—	5.50
09 Aug 26	Chepstow	6f 16y	Good To Firm	C5	3/9	½L	8.50
09 Jul 26	Newbury	6f	Good To Firm	C4	4/11	5¼L	29.0

1 win from 3 · placed 2

Won 1 of 3 at around this trip

Last ran 30 days ago

Trainer Jack Jones: 3/8 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Jack Nicholls: 13% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 1/2Trip 6f: 1/4Course AW: 1/2Class C5: 1/3Field 13+: 0/1

Full profile →Jockey Jack Nicholls Trainer Jack Jones

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10 (12)

Sioux Moon

2yo · 9-2 · OR 68

3525 J Paddy Bradley 4% T Charlie Fellowes 1/7 — / 8% 11.5 12.5

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
21 Sep 26	Leicester	6f	Good	C5	5/14	3½L	10.0
31 Aug 26	Southwell	4f 214y	Standard	C4	2/10	3L	13.0
18 Aug 26	Chepstow	5f 16y	Good To Firm	C4	5/8	6½L	4.00

0 wins from 4 · placed 2

1 run here without a win

Last ran 28 days ago

Trainer Charlie Fellowes: 1/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Paddy Bradley: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/2Trip 6f: 0/3Course AW: 0/2Class C5: 0/2Field 13+: 0/2

Full profile →Jockey Paddy Bradley Trainer Charlie Fellowes

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11 (3)

North Star Kodi (IRE)

2yo · 9-2 · OR 68

338 J Oisin McSweeney 0% T R A Fahey 3/36 — / 4% 24.0 26.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
09 Sep 26	Carlisle	5f 182y	Good	C5	8/10	5¾L	5.50
27 May 26	Hamilton Park	5f	Good To Firm	C4	3/6	4¾L	6.50
15 May 26	Hamilton Park	6f	Good	C4	3/6	1¾L	13.0

0 wins from 3 · placed 2

2 runs at around this trip without a win

Last ran 40 days ago

Trainer R A Fahey: 3/36 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Oisin McSweeney: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/1Trip 6f: 0/3Course AW: 0/1Class C5: 0/2Field 13+: 0/1

Full profile →Jockey Oisin McSweeney Trainer R A Fahey

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13 (10)

Holi Scarlett (IRE)

2yo · 9-1 · OR 67

130368 J Jack Dace (5) 0% T Stuart Williams 0/16 — / 1% 75.0 95.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
10 Sep 26	Lingfield Park	6f 1y	Standard	C5	8/12	7¾L	21.0
28 Aug 26	Sandown Park	5f 10y	Good	C4	6/8	8½L	11.0
01 Aug 26	Newmarket	6f	Good To Firm	C2	3/9	1¼L	26.0

1 win from 9 · placed 4

4 runs at around this trip without a win

Last ran 39 days ago

Trainer Stuart Williams: 0/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Jack Dace: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/2Trip 6f: 0/5Course AW: 0/2Class C5: 0/3Field 13+: 0/3

Full profile →Jockey Jack Dace Trainer Stuart Williams

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14 (14)

Donegal Rose (IRE) p11

2yo · 9-1 · OR 67

51495 J Mason Paetel (3) 0% T H Palmer 1/25 — / 1% 95.0 140.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
09 Sep 26	Carlisle	5f 182y	Good	C5	5/10	3¾L	13.0
01 Aug 26	Newmarket	6f	Good To Firm	C2	9/9	7¼L	34.0
10 Jul 26	Chester	7f 1y	Good	C4	4/4	12L	3.75

1 win from 5 · placed 1

2 runs at around this trip without a win

First time in cheekpieces

Trainer H Palmer: 1/25 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Mason Paetel: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/1Trip 6f: 1/4Course AW: 0/1Class C5: 0/2Field 13+: 0/1

Full profile →Jockey Mason Paetel Trainer H Palmer

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~~Kigali~~ Non-runner

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Expert confidence?

Betfair Exchange · Win

Track bias · Southwell 5f–6f?

Result

Runners

Expert confidence

Track bias · Southwell 5f–6f