Monday 19 October › Bath › 16:50
Result
Race of the Day
16:50 · Bath
Elite Racing Club Handicap (Div 1)
Class 6? Handicap? 1m? Good · GoingStick 5.1? 4YO plus · 14 ran £3,454 to the winner Overcast
6 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:53 BST · #d3ef07 · updated 16:14 BST (v2)
A brisk pace among front-runners could open the door for the favourite's rivals.
Market (Betfair)?
10% 6.60
Confidence?
Medium · Tier B
How the race should unfold With fourteen runners and three confirmed front-runners, the pace looks set to be hot, and they may tire each other out, which should help those racing closer to the pace settle things late. The favourite's stable has been quiet recently and she faces an awkward wide draw, leaving room for a couple of better-drawn, in-form rivals.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Spirit Lead Me The reigning favourite won last time out, but a wide draw and a recent dip in her stable's form make her look vulnerable to a couple of rivals.
24% / 33%
2
Sub Thirteen Backed heavily in the build-up, she was only narrowly beaten last time in a strong race and looks better than her price suggests.
19% / 10%
3
Dalmally A recent winner with real class and previous form over this trip, though she carries top weight and drew wide, which may explain her bigger price.
14% / 13%
4
Georg Zhukov Once rated higher, his form has dipped from its peak, so he is rated a touch below where the market has him.
10% / 13%
5
Sceptic From a yard in form today and well backed, but he is short of his best and could get caught up in a fast early pace, so he is left out of the betting.
9% / 6%
Red flags The favourite drew awkwardly wide and her stable has underperformed in recent weeks. One of the fancied runners steps up in distance today over a trip she hasn't proven she stays. The in-form yard's runner may be caught out if the early gallop is as brisk as expected.
Expert confidence? 6 experts
Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Bath 1m–1m1f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 1.09 0.91 0.77 Mid-div 1.13 0.69 0.79 Held up 0.82 1.07 0.41
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 42.11s · Report
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (8)
1 1 3 8 4 7
J Charlie Tucker (7) 0%
T Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams 0/7
— / 4%
22.0 24.0
2 wins from 17 · placed 5
1 run here without a win
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Charlie Tucker: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/6 Trip 1m: 0/3 Course Tight: 1/7 Class C6+: 0/1 Field 13+: 1/10
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2 (13)
5 8 6 3 7 1
J K Shoemark 18%
T Mark Pattinson 1/5
14% / 11%
8.60 8.80
2 wins from 18 · placed 8
Won 2 of 10 at around this trip
Last ran 56 days ago
Trainer Mark Pattinson: 1/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey K Shoemark: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m: 2/10 Course Tight: 2/6 Class C6+: 1/5 Field 13+: 0/4
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 14% · market 11%
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3 (5)
7 0 6 2 7 8
J Rob Hornby 6%
T Dominic Ffrench Davis 0/7
— / 2%
55.0 60.0
0 wins from 10 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer Dominic Ffrench Davis: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rob Hornby: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/4 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
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4 (12)
9 9 9 8 6 1
J Finley Marsh 9%
T Richard Hughes 3/20
24% / 20%
4.90 5.00
5 wins from 27 · placed 7
Won 3 of 11 at around this trip
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer Richard Hughes: 3/20 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Finley Marsh: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/6 Trip 1m: 4/11 Course Tight: 1/2 Class C6+: 6/6 Field 13+: 2/9
3 experts tipped this horse · 3 with a strong record
Our chance 24% · market 20%
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5 (1)
5 2 1 9 5 5
J Olivia Haines (7) 0%
T George Baker 2/8
9% / 16%
6.00 6.20
5 wins from 37 · placed 8
Won 2 of 18 at around this trip
Returns from a 65-day break
Trainer George Baker: 2/8 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Olivia Haines: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/8 Trip 1m: 2/13 Course Tight: 1/4 Class C6+: 3/15 Field 13+: 0/9
Our chance 9% · market 16%
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6 (9)
4 3 D 2 5 0
J Kieren Fox 0%
T Michael Attwater 1/14
— / 6%
16.5 17.0
2 wins from 28 · placed 9
Won 1 of 18 at around this trip
Last ran 12 days ago
Trainer Michael Attwater: 1/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kieren Fox: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m: 1/15 Course Tight: 1/6 Class C6+: 0/10 Field 13+: 0/7
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7 (14)
7 9 0 0 0 0
J William Carson 0%
T John & Rhys Flint 0/4
— / 0%
220.0 440.0
4 wins from 27 · placed 7
Won 1 of 10 at around this trip
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer John & Rhys Flint: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey William Carson: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/7 Trip 1m: 1/11 Course Tight: 0/3 Class C6+: 3/7 Field 13+: 0/8
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8 (7)
3 2 4 3 3 4
J Callum Hutchinson 0%
T Jeremy Scott 0/5
19% / 14%
6.60 7.00
4 wins from 33 · placed 11
Course winner: 2 wins from 7 here
First time in a visor
Trainer Jeremy Scott: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Callum Hutchinson: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/5 Trip 1m: 0/4 Course Tight: 2/8 Class C6+: 2/18 Field 13+: 0/4
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 19% · market 14%
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9 (6)
5 5 6 6 7 0
J Lewis Edmunds 8%
T G & J Moore 3/16
— / 4%
22.0 24.0
0 wins from 7 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
First time in blinkers and a tongue strap
Trainer G & J Moore: 3/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Lewis Edmunds: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m: 0/6 Course Tight: 0/4 Class C6+: 0/4 Field 13+: 0/2
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10 (10)
4 4 1 2 1 0
J Alfie Redman (7) 25%
T Miss Celine De La Haye 0/1
— / 1%
85.0 140.0
1 win from 23 · placed 7
2 runs here without a win
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer Miss Celine De La Haye: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Alfie Redman: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/5 Trip 1m: 0/4 Course Tight: 1/10 Class C6+: 1/21 Field 13+: 0/5
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11 (3)
0 0 5 9 4 2
J Kieran O'Neill 12%
T Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams 0/7
10% / 15%
6.60 6.80
1 win from 27 · placed 5
Won 1 of 12 at around this trip
Last ran 22 days ago
Trainer Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kieran O'Neill: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/9 Trip 1m: 1/12 Course Tight: 0/8 Class C6+: 0/3 Field 13+: 1/20
Our chance 10% · market 15%
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12 (2)
6 3 0 8 5 8
J William Cox 0%
T Patrick Chamings 0/6
— / 0%
180.0 430.0
2 wins from 41 · placed 10
Won 2 of 33 at around this trip
Returns from a 62-day break
Trainer Patrick Chamings: 0/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey William Cox: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/10 Trip 1m: 2/33 Course Tight: 0/7 Class C6+: 2/24 Field 13+: 0/13
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13 (4)
4 7 2 7 5 0
J Jack Callan 27%
T Adrian Wintle 1/11
— / 3%
32.0 34.0
1 win from 24 · placed 2
1 run here without a win
Last ran 37 days ago
Trainer Adrian Wintle: 1/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Callan: 27% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/9 Trip 1m: 0/11 Course Tight: 0/3 Class C6+: 0/11 Field 13+: 1/14
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14 (11)
5 0 5 4 3 7
J Joe Leavy 8%
T Adrian Wintle 1/11
— / 2%
50.0 55.0
1 win from 18 · placed 3
2 runs here without a win
Last ran 22 days ago
Trainer Adrian Wintle: 1/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Joe Leavy: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/6 Trip 1m: 0/4 Course Tight: 0/6 Class C6+: 1/16 Field 13+: 0/2
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