Sunday 18 October › Leopardstown › 16:42
Bahrain Turf Club October Handicap (Premier Handicap)
Handicap? 1m 3f 150y? Good-yielding in places? 3YO plus · 15 ran €30,000 to the winner sunny intervals
6 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:11 BST · #d69b0f · updated 16:04 BST (v2)
A tightly packed field looks set for a close finish, with no clear edge over the market.
None of the leading contenders look clearly underpriced against the market, so there isn't a standout chance worth backing in this race.
How the race should unfold With two horses likely to share the pace, there's no obvious breakaway leader, so the field should stay bunched into the final stretch. The outcome looks set to hinge on class and freshness rather than tactics, with several runners holding genuine claims and none standing out as a clear springer compared to the market price.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Sky Captain The likely favourite has winning form over this trip and a strong trainer-jockey pairing, but carries the biggest weight in a large field.
22% / 16%
2
Truth Be Told Shows the strongest peak form in the race and has won at this course and distance before, though a long layoff and a recent dip in form are a concern.
13% / 12%
3
Night Moon An interesting outsider whose best past form is well above this field's level, and the stable has already had a winner at the meeting today.
10% / 8%
4
Latin America Carries the highest official rating in the race, a progressive younger horse with solid form against strong rivals.
8% / 9%
Red flags The favourite's big weight burden in a 15-runner field has historically been a disadvantage. The fancied outsider's price has drifted slightly rather than shortened, despite the positive angle in its favour. The horse with the strongest peak form is returning from a lengthy break and has cooled off since its best.
Expert confidence? 6 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Leopardstown 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 1.13 0.94 1.10 Mid-div 0.30 1.47 0.28 Held up 0.40 1.89 0.35
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 35.46s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Sky Captain — 8th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (6)
1 2 2 2 6 6
J Dylan Browne McMonagle 8%
T Joseph Patrick O'Brien 3/35
22% / 24%
4.10 4.20
1 win from 5 · placed 4
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 3/35 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 1/6 Course Galloping: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 22% · market 24%
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2 (8)
9 4 1 1 2 6
J W J Lee 17%
T M C Grassick 1/6
13% / 13%
7.40 7.60
2 wins from 11 · placed 4
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Last ran 36 days ago
Trainer M C Grassick: 1/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey W J Lee: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/6 Trip 1m1f+: 3/6 Course Galloping: 2/5 Field 13+: 1/4
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 13% · market 13%
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4 (14)
2 1 3 5
J Ben Coen 12%
T J P Murtagh 5/32
8% / 8%
11.5 12.5
1 win from 4 · placed 3
1 run at around this trip without a win
First time in cheekpieces
Trainer J P Murtagh: 5/32 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ben Coen: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 1/4 Course Galloping: 0/3 Field 13+: 1/2
Our chance 8% · market 8%
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5 (11)
4 6 4 8 1 1
J Patrick McGettigan (5) 0%
T P Sweeney 0/3
— / 3%
34.0 40.0
8 wins from 45 · placed 10
Course winner: 1 win from 4 here
Last ran 6 days ago
Trainer P Sweeney: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Patrick McGettigan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/11 Trip 1m1f+: 7/31 Course Galloping: 5/19 Field 13+: 4/23
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6 (10)
0 6 6 6 3 0
J Wayne Lordan 32%
T W P Mullins 4/23
— / 3%
27.0 32.0
2 wins from 23 · placed 7
1 run here without a win
First time in cheekpieces and a tongue strap
Trainer W P Mullins: 4/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Wayne Lordan: 32% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/7 Trip 1m1f+: 1/14 Course Galloping: 2/16 Field 13+: 1/13
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7 (15)
0 3 1 1 3 0
J Colin Keane 14%
T W P Mullins 4/23
10% / 7%
14.0 14.5
2 wins from 15 · placed 6
Won 1 of 3 at around this trip
Last ran 36 days ago
Trainer W P Mullins: 4/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Colin Keane: 14% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/5 Trip 1m1f+: 2/9 Course Galloping: 1/8 Field 13+: 2/13
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 10% · market 7%
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8 (16)
2 2 3 1 1
J Chris Hayes 3%
T D K Weld 1/16
— / 12%
8.20 8.40
1 win from 4 · placed 4
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer D K Weld: 1/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Chris Hayes: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 1/4 Course Galloping: 0/4 Field 13+: 1/3
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9 (1)
2 2 2 2 6 3
J Robbie Colgan 5%
T Andrew Lee 0/1
— / 2%
55.0 70.0
0 wins from 10 · placed 6
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 22 days ago
Trainer Andrew Lee: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Robbie Colgan: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 0/4 Course Galloping: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/7
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10 (7)
0 5 1 2 1 2
J Rory Cleary 0%
T Kevin Thomas Coleman 0/12
— / 5%
20.0 22.0
5 wins from 21 · placed 10
Won 1 of 4 at around this trip
Last ran 37 days ago
Trainer Kevin Thomas Coleman: 0/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rory Cleary: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/7 Trip 1m1f+: 5/19 Course Galloping: 0/10 Field 13+: 3/11
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11 (12)
1 0 5 4 1 1
J Julian Pietropaolo (7) 7%
T Patrick Magee 1/11
— / 2%
38.0 48.0
11 wins from 82 · placed 26
Course winner: 1 win from 10 here
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer Patrick Magee: 1/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Julian Pietropaolo: 7% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 5/29 Trip 1m1f+: 8/41 Course Galloping: 4/34 Field 13+: 4/52
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12 (5)
9 5 1 5 3 3
J Reese Holohan (5) 3%
T Noel Meade 1/18
— / 8%
13.0 14.0
3 wins from 23 · placed 8
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Last ran 7 days ago
Trainer Noel Meade: 1/18 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Reese Holohan: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/10 Trip 1m1f+: 2/10 Course Galloping: 1/12 Field 13+: 1/12
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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13 (17)
4 6 4 2 1
J Luke McAteer 6%
T J S Bolger 1/9
— / 4%
24.0 26.0
1 win from 5 · placed 2
3 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 6 days ago
Trainer J S Bolger: 1/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke McAteer: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 1/6 Course Galloping: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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14 (3)
2 2 6 4 0 6
J Nathan Crosse 0%
T R P Cody 1/5
— / 5%
17.5 19.5
2 wins from 16 · placed 11
2 runs here without a win
Last ran 24 days ago
Trainer R P Cody: 1/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Nathan Crosse: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/10 Trip 1m1f+: 0/8 Course Galloping: 0/7 Field 13+: 1/12
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15 (9)
7 1 5 9 6
J Andrew Slattery 20%
T A Oliver 1/19
— / 3%
30.0 36.0
1 win from 4 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer A Oliver: 1/19 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Andrew Slattery: 20% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/4 Trip 1m1f+: 1/5 Course Galloping: 1/5 Field 13+: 0/2
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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16 (4)
6 5 6 9 6 2
J Rory Mulligan (5) 0%
T Don Browne 0/1
— / 1%
120.0 220.0
4 wins from 46 · placed 13
Course winner: 1 win from 9 here
Last ran 7 days ago
Trainer Don Browne: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rory Mulligan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/10 Trip 1m1f+: 1/20 Course Galloping: 2/22 Field 13+: 3/36
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