Sunday 18 October › Sedgefield › 14:50
Roflow Specialist Ventilation & Dehumidification 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
Class 4? 2m 178y? Good · GoingStick 7.2? 4YO plus · 8 ran £5,446 to the winner cloudy
5 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:06 BST · #db4ee6 · updated 14:05 BST (v2)
No standout value in this maiden hurdle, so we're sitting this one out.
Nothing in this field combines a strong enough chance with a price worth taking. The market looks broadly fair across the board, so there's no clear edge to back here.
How the race should unfold No obvious front-runner, so the pace looks open and the race should come down to the final stretch. The favourite holds the strongest form claims, but her price already looks fair rather than generous. Elsewhere, money has been moving in different directions, making it hard to find a clear edge anywhere in the field.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Cant Resist It She's the best-rated runner here with strong form claims, but her current price already looks like a fair reflection of her chance.
27% / 22%
2
Codgers Rock She finished close up last time out, though there are questions over whether she can fully repeat that level, and her yard isn't in top form.
22% / 26%
3
Karate Kid Solid form claims on paper, but her yard is going through a real cold spell right now, which argues against trusting the price.
15% / 18%
4
Lady Boujee Her yard and jockey are in excellent form and she drops in class today, but her price has drifted sharply this morning, suggesting support isn't there.
13% / 20%
5
Hay Max Her price has shortened noticeably since the morning, and her previous runs came against tougher fields than today's, hinting she may be underrated.
12% / 7%
Red flags With no clear pace-setter, the finish could be unpredictable and hard to call. The favourite's price leaves little margin if anything goes wrong. One fancied runner's yard is out of form, adding risk to backing her on current figures.
Expert confidence? 5 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 4m 00.23s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Cant Resist It — 4th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
5 3 2 0 5 4 J Jack Hogan 36% T F O'Brien 4/24 27% / 24% 4.10 4.20
0 wins from 10 · placed 3
5 runs at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 226-day break
Trainer F O'Brien: 4/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Hogan: 36% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/4 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/6 Course Tight: 0/5 Class C4: 0/4 Field ≤ 8: 0/3
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 27% · market 24%
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2
2 6 0 6 9 2 J S Bowen 27% T Cian Collins 1/9 22% / 26% 3.70 3.80
0 wins from 8 · placed 2
3 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer Cian Collins: 1/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey S Bowen: 27% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/5 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/8 Course Tight: 0/3 Class C4: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 22% · market 26%
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3
2 3 5 3 7 J Brian Hughes 12% T C E Longsdon 4/12 12% / 11% 9.00 9.20
0 wins from 5 · placed 3
1 run here without a win
Returns from a 178-day break
Trainer C E Longsdon: 4/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Brian Hughes: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/5 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 1/5 Course Tight: 1/5 Class C4: 1/5 Field ≤ 8: 1/4
Our chance 12% · market 11%
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4
2 1 0 6 J Jonathan England 25% T S England 3/21 15% / 20% 5.00 5.10
1 win from 4 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 218-day break
Trainer S England: 3/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jonathan England: 25% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 1/3 Course Tight: 0/2 Class C4: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
Our chance 15% · market 20%
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5
6 7 9 J Peter Kavanagh 0% T Andrew Wilson 0/1 — / 0% 310.0 870.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer Andrew Wilson: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Peter Kavanagh: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/2 Course Tight: 0/1 Class C4: 0/3 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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6
5 5 4 0 J G Sheehan 30% T Oliver Signy 0/3 — / 2% 42.0 48.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 165-day break
Trainer Oliver Signy: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey G Sheehan: 30% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/2 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/3 Course Tight: 0/3 Class C4: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/3
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7
5 6 5 5 3 4 J Benjamin Macey (5) 0% T Seamus Mullins 1/11 — / 4% 27.0 30.0
0 wins from 7 · placed 1
3 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 50 days ago
Trainer Seamus Mullins: 1/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Benjamin Macey: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/4 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/5 Course Tight: 0/5 Class C4: 0/5 Field ≤ 8: 0/5
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8
2 6 5 J Harry Skelton 31% T D Skelton 18/77 13% / 13% 7.80 8.00
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
2 runs at around this trip without a win
First time in a hood
Trainer D Skelton: 18/77 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Harry Skelton: 31% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 2m1f–2m4f: 0/3 Course Tight: 0/2 Class C4: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/3
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 13% · market 13%
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