Today › Nottingham › 14:29
British EBF Future Stayers Oath Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Class 2? 1m 75y? Good-good to firm in places · GoingStick 6.4? 2YO only · 5 ran £15,462 to the winner Rain
5 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:29 BST · #b31e08
Favourite looks the one to beat, but the price leaves no real betting case.
Gainful is clearly the best horse on what we have seen, but her advantage over the market price is too small to justify backing a short-priced favourite. None of the other runners show any sign of being underrated at their current prices, so there is no bet to recommend in this race.
How the race should unfold Five mostly first or second-time-out two-year-olds line up over a mile and three-quarter furlongs at Nottingham on good ground. Gainful stands out on form and should take the field along or sit close to the pace, with the two fancied newcomers needing to improve sharply to get involved in the finish.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Gainful Gainful was well held on debut at a tough track yet still showed more than anything else here, making her a clear top pick on ability.
41% / —
2
Top Scholar Top Scholar steps up from a strong yard with a leading jockey booked, but nothing suggests she is being overlooked at her current price.
22% / —
3
Prince Of Petra Prince Of Petra comes from a yard with a good record at this course and a strong stable-jockey link, though again there is no sign of hidden value.
18% / —
4
Caldo Caldo was well beaten last time out and there is little to suggest she is now better than her price implies.
10% / —
5
Hoshi Hoshi has shown only moderate form in two starts and lacks a clear edge to make her worth following here.
9% / —
Red flags Backing a short-priced favourite rarely pays off even when she looks the best horse in the race. A field of five mostly unexposed runners makes true form hard to judge. The fancied newcomers are unproven at this level despite their strong connections.
Expert confidence? 5 experts
Gainful 3 experts · 2 with a strong record
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Nottingham 1m–1m1f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 0.80 0.99 2.49 Mid-div 0.92 0.00 — Held up 0.00 0.94 0.93
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 1m 48.83s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Gainful — won.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (3)
7 J David Probert 5% T A M Balding 10/67 10% / 10% 10.0 10.5
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer A M Balding: 10/67 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey David Probert: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C2: 0/0 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
Our chance 10% · market 10%
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2 (2)
5 4 J Charles Bishop 8% T A King 2/11 9% / 8% 13.0 13.5
0 wins from 2 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer A King: 2/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Charles Bishop: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/0 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C2: 0/0 Field ≤ 8: 0/0
Our chance 9% · market 8%
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3 (5)
No form J Ray Dawson 6% T R Varian 5/33 18% / 15% 6.80 7.00
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer R Varian: 5/33 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ray Dawson: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 18% · market 15%
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4 (1)
No form J Tom Marquand 14% T W J Haggas 10/55 22% / 16% 6.00 6.20
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer W J Haggas: 10/55 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Tom Marquand: 14% strike rate in the last 14 days
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 22% · market 16%
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5 (4)
3 J Rossa Ryan 16% T R M Beckett 10/49 41% / 51% 1.92 1.93
0 wins from 1 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer R M Beckett: 10/49 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rossa Ryan: 16% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 1m: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/1 Class C2: 0/0 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
3 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 41% · market 51%
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