Monday 5 October › Great Yarmouth › 16:05
Haven Seashore Holiday Park Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Class 4? Handicap? 1m 2f 23y? Good to firm-good in places · GoingStick 5.3? 3YO plus · 9 ran £5,653 to the winner sunny
3 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:41 BST · #1bd36b · updated 15:21 BST (v2)
Box To Box looks well handicapped and poised to lead, with Leonardo Blu also fancied.
Market (Betfair)?
11% 11.0
Confidence?
Medium · Tier B
Also backing: Leonardo Blu at 9.60 or bigger
How the race should unfold Expect a strongly run race, with several horses keen to lead early. The contest should be decided in the final furlongs as those front-runners begin to tire. Box To Box looks capable of setting a strong pace from the front, while Leonardo Blu, racing from a favourable draw, could finish fast from off the pace.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Lucky Hero The market favourite, in good recent form, but nothing in the pre-race picture gives him a clear edge over his price.
14% / 16%
2
Box To Box Drops in class with recent form well above his official mark, and looks the likeliest horse to take it up and lead throughout.
13% / 11%
3
Cuff It His last below-par run looks forgivable, connections are in good form and he has won before over this course and distance, though he may also want to lead.
12% / 11%
4
Leonardo Blu Stable and jockey were already successful earlier today, the horse is at the top of his form and drawn well, yet the market hasn't fully caught up.
10% / 8%
5
Warrior Mode Backed by a smart yard and dropping in class, but stepping up sharply in trip for the first time is a concern.
8% / 13%
Red flags Box To Box has drifted in the market since early morning, which is worth noting. With several horses keen to lead, there's a risk the early pace rivals tire each other out before the finish. Leonardo Blu's recent stable-form figures are based on a small sample, so treat that angle with some caution.
Expert confidence? 3 experts
Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Great Yarmouth 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 1.68 0.56 1.00 Held up — — 0.35
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 06.11s · Report
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (2)
1 0 2 2 6 5
J Tom Marquand 15%
T H Palmer 2/32
13% / 9%
11.0 11.5
6 wins from 34 · placed 16
Won 5 of 19 at around this trip
Last ran 23 days ago
Trainer H Palmer: 2/32 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Tom Marquand: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 2/8 Trip 1m1f+: 6/30 Course Galloping: 2/16 Class C4: 4/9 Field 9–12: 2/16
Our chance 13% · market 9%
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2 (10)
3 8 0 3 1 8
J Luke Morris 12%
T Sir Mark Prescott Bt 3/25
8% / 15%
6.60 6.80
2 wins from 8 · placed 4
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 30 days ago
Trainer Sir Mark Prescott Bt: 3/25 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke Morris: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/3 Class C4: 2/6 Field 9–12: 1/5
Our chance 8% · market 15%
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4 (3)
0 4 3 1 1 3
J C J Whiteley (5) 9%
T D O'Meara 4/45
14% / 17%
5.60 5.80
3 wins from 14 · placed 10
Won 2 of 4 at around this trip
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer D O'Meara: 4/45 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey C J Whiteley: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 3/5 Trip 1m1f+: 2/5 Course Galloping: 3/7 Class C4: 0/9 Field 9–12: 0/4
Our chance 14% · market 17%
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5 (5)
7 0 0 4 4 6
J Rossa Ryan 18%
T C Johnston 6/52
— / 6%
16.0 16.5
1 win from 10 · placed 3
First time at this course and trip
First time in cheekpieces
Trainer C Johnston: 6/52 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rossa Ryan: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 2/6 Trip 1m1f+: 1/1 Course Galloping: 1/4 Class C4: 1/3 Field 9–12: 1/4
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6 (8)
4 8 4 4 1 2
J Neil Callan 33%
T W J Knight 0/10
— / 9%
11.0 11.5
5 wins from 34 · placed 15
Course winner: 1 win from 6 here
Last ran 25 days ago
Trainer W J Knight: 0/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Neil Callan: 33% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 2/11 Trip 1m1f+: 4/26 Course Galloping: 4/23 Class C4: 2/14 Field 9–12: 2/17
2 experts tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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7 (7)
3 4 3 0 3 3
J Jack Callan 12%
T G G Margarson 0/5
— / 8%
12.5 13.5
2 wins from 36 · placed 14
Course winner: 1 win from 9 here
Last ran 10 days ago
Trainer G G Margarson: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Callan: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 2/17 Trip 1m1f+: 2/18 Course Galloping: 2/32 Class C4: 0/10 Field 9–12: 0/17
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8 (1)
2 1 4 8 4
J R Havlin 30%
T Tom Clover 5/11
10% / 9%
10.0 11.0
1 win from 5 · placed 2
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 32 days ago
Trainer Tom Clover: 5/11 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey R Havlin: 30% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 0/4 Trip 1m1f+: 1/4 Course Galloping: 1/4 Class C4: 1/4 Field 9–12: 0/2
Our chance 10% · market 9%
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9 (6)
4 4 5 1 1 5
J K Shoemark 14%
T E Walker 6/35
— / 10%
10.0 10.5
2 wins from 7 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 40 days ago
Trainer E Walker: 6/35 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey K Shoemark: 14% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 2/5 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Galloping: 2/5 Class C4: 0/4 Field 9–12: 2/5
1 expert tipped this horse
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10 (9)
5 0 3 1 P 5
J Harry Davies 11%
T James Owen 7/49
— / 16%
5.90 6.20
1 win from 6 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer James Owen: 7/49 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Harry Davies: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Galloping: 0/2 Class C4: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/4
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