Pescatorius looks the value pick over a shaky favourite in this small, messy chase.
Our chance
27% 1 in 4
Market (Betfair)
28% 5.20
Worth it down to
3.75
Confidence
Medium · Tier B
How the race should unfoldWith just four runners and no obvious pace leader, Golly Gosh and Pescatorius both look capable of setting the gallop, so this shouldn't turn into a big fight for the lead. The race should be settled by jumping and the finishing effort rather than early tactics, with both favourites facing real questions over their form.
#Contender and why we differ from the marketOurs ■ vs market ■Win chance
Long time off the track, below his best last time out, and from a yard short on recent winners, hard to fancy.
7%/ 14%
Red flags
Pescatorius drifted in the betting before the race, a sign the market isn't fully behind him.This is a jumps race, and Pescatorius has shown the odd jumping error in the past.The evidence behind his yard's recent form here is based on a small number of runs, so treat it with some caution.