In a small, tactical field, Mino Des Mottes looks the value pick over the hot favourite.
Our chance
15% 1 in 7
Market (Betfair)
— 8.60
Worth it down to
6.80
Confidence
Medium · Tier B
How the race should unfoldOnly six runners go to post and none looks keen to make the running, so this should be a tactical affair rather than a true gallop, putting a premium on finishing speed. The favourite has looked impressive in two starts but is lightly raced, leaving room for others to measure up well on form and placings.
#Contender and why we differ from the marketOurs ■ vs market ■Win chance
Unbeaten in two starts for a leading yard and jockey, but this is still only her third run, so there's a touch less certainty than the betting suggests.
Has matched his rating with genuine placed efforts in competitive races, runs for a sharp trainer-jockey team, and steps out in new headgear that could sharpen him up further.
A past winner over this trip who sits close to market expectations, but his profile hints he may already be fully priced up rather than underrated.
7%/ —
Red flags
He hasn't won since the summer, with only one victory from nine career starts overall.With just six runners, the favourite is expected to take a large share of the chance, leaving less room for the rest.The step up in confidence here partly rests on a statistical pattern rather than anything visible on the day.