Result Race of the Day 13:50 · Ascot

BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed)

Listed5fGood-good to firm in places · GoingStick 8.13YO plus · 11 ran£34,026 to the winnerCloudy 19 experts

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Analyst verdict Locked 09:05 BST · #027b84

Fluorescence looks the value play, having already won at this higher level once before.

Our chance

14% 1 in 7

Market (Betfair)

— 7.20

Worth it down to

7.20

Confidence

Medium · Tier B

How the race should unfoldNo horse looks set to dominate the gallop, so the field should race in a tight bunch rather than see one leader break clear. The favourite has course and distance form in its favour, but with little room above its current level, the race looks open for others to find the edge.

Tuco Salamanca

The warranted favourite, having won over this very course and distance last time, though there isn't much more improvement to find.

26% / —

Shagraan

A consistent performer at this level who was only just touched off into second last time out, with a yard in good form.

15% / —

Fluorescence

Already won a race at this same higher level last time out, with its form climbing faster than anything else in the field.

14% / —

Regional

Has the biggest upside on its best form of anyone here, but recent runs are below that peak and it is now an older horse.

9% / —

Air Force One

Won two of its last three starts and is in career-best form, but is stepping up to this tougher grade for the first time.

8% / —

Red flags

Fluorescence's big win came over a different trip and on different ground, so it hasn't proven it suits conditions here.With no clear pace horse, the race could be run evenly, which may not suit every runner's preferred style.A few others jumping into this grade for the first time look tempting on paper but are stepping into the unknown.

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Expert confidence

19 experts

Tuco Salamanca (IRE)

5 experts · 1 with a strong record

Shagraan (IRE)

4 experts

Fluorescence

3 experts

Heavenly Heather

3 experts

Regional

2 experts

Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.

Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.

Betfair Exchange · Win

Tuco Salamanca (IRE)3.803.85

Shagraan (IRE)6.206.40

Fluorescence7.207.60

Air Force One (IRE)9.609.80

Aramram (IRE)12.013.0

Regional14.014.5

Fluorescence: 7.00 at 12:50 → 7.40 at 13:49.

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Track bias · Ascot 5f–6f

Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons

Low drawMiddleHigh draw Prominent1.140.761.41Mid-div1.000.880.87Held up0.920.531.03

Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.

Result

Official · time 58.90s · Report

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Beaten	SP	BSP
1	Air Force One (IRE)	P J McDonald	G R Oldroyd	—	9.50	12.5
2	Regional	C Lee	E Bethell	shd	13.0	13.7
3	Tuco Salamanca (IRE)	Billy Loughnane	Ollie Sangster	1L	3.75	4.38
4	Fluorescence Our pick	D Tudhope	E Bethell	1½L	5.00	5.70
5	Baker Blue	P J Dobbs	Dylan Cunha	2L	51.0	65.0
6	Heavenly Heather	Barry McHugh	Tracy Waggott	2¾L	17.0	21.0
7	Aramram (IRE)	S M Levey	R Hannon	3L	10.0	12.8
8	Shagraan (IRE)	K Shoemark	C G Cox	3½L	5.50	6.80
9	King Of Light	Lewis Edmunds	Stuart Williams	4¾L	29.0	32.0
10	First Instinct	Harry Davies	W J Haggas	4¾L	21.0	26.1
11	Lifeplan (IRE)	Zak Wheatley	Declan Carroll	8¼L	13.0	12.0

How our analyst did

Fluorescence4thBSP 5.70−1.00 pts to 1 pt stake

Runners

Form, oldest → latest Suitability: strong good untried poor Bookmaker prices — coming soon

1 (1)

Air Force One (IRE) v

5yo · 9-3 · OR 102

533181 J P J McDonald 5% T G R Oldroyd 1/3 8% / 10% 9.60 9.80

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
12 Sep 26	Doncaster	5f 143y	Good	C2	1/21	—	6.50
22 Aug 26	York	6f	Good To Soft	C2	8/20	2¼L	5.00
19 Aug 26	York	5f 89y	Good	C2	1/21	—	7.50

5 wins from 21 · placed 10

Won 4 of 17 at around this trip

Last ran 21 days ago

Trainer G R Oldroyd: 1/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey P J McDonald: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 4/10Trip 5f: 5/15Course Stiff: 3/4Class C1: 1/1Field 9–12: 2/4

1 expert tipped this horse

Our chance 8% · market 10%

Full profile →Jockey P J McDonald Trainer G R Oldroyd

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2 (10)

Aramram (IRE)

5yo · 9-3 · OR 105

250560 J S M Levey 11% T R Hannon 3/52 — / 8% 12.0 13.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
19 Sep 26	Ayr	6f	Heavy	C2	18/24	13½L	51.0
05 Sep 26	Haydock Park	6f	Soft	C1	6/8	10¾L	34.0
15 Aug 26	Ripon	6f	Good	C2	5/14	4L	8.00

6 wins from 29 · placed 14

Course winner: 1 win from 6 here

Last ran 14 days ago

Trainer R Hannon: 3/52 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey S M Levey: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 1/10Trip 5f: 0/2Course Stiff: 1/7Class C1: 1/6Field 9–12: 4/12

Full profile →Jockey S M Levey Trainer R Hannon

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3 (6)

Baker Blue

3yo · 9-3 · OR 99

026341 J P J Dobbs 10% T Dylan Cunha 3/23 — / 1% 70.0 80.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
11 Sep 26	Chester	5f 15y	Good To Soft	C3	1/10	—	4.00
19 Aug 26	York	5f	Good	C2	4/19	3L	15.0
16 Aug 26	Pontefract	5f 3y	Good To Firm	C2	3/8	1¾L	7.00

3 wins from 17 · placed 9

Won 2 of 13 at around this trip

Last ran 22 days ago

Trainer Dylan Cunha: 3/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey P J Dobbs: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 0/7Trip 5f: 2/14Course Stiff: 0/5Class C1: 0/1Field 9–12: 1/7

Full profile →Jockey P J Dobbs Trainer Dylan Cunha

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4 (9)

King Of Light

4yo · 9-3 · OR 97

786051 J Lewis Edmunds 5% T Stuart Williams 5/28 — / 3% 30.0 34.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
26 Sep 26	Haydock Park	5f	Soft-good to soft in places	C2	1/10	—	6.00
12 Sep 26	Doncaster	5f 143y	Good	C2	5/21	1¾L	12.0
22 Aug 26	York	6f	Good To Soft	C2	14/20	6¼L	17.0

5 wins from 25 · placed 9

Won 4 of 17 at around this trip

Last ran 7 days ago

Trainer Stuart Williams: 5/28 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Lewis Edmunds: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 1/10Trip 5f: 4/17Course Stiff: 0/6Class C1: 0/3Field 9–12: 3/10

1 expert tipped this horse

Full profile →Jockey Lewis Edmunds Trainer Stuart Williams

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5 (11)

Lifeplan (IRE) b11

3yo · 9-3 · OR 112

1130 J Zak Wheatley 0% T Declan Carroll 0/16 — / 7% 14.5 15.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
22 Aug 26	York	7f	Good To Soft	C1	11/14	23¾L	67.0
02 Aug 26	Chester	6f 17y	Good	C1	3/9	1¼L	10.0
22 Aug 25	York	6f	Good To Firm	C1	1/8	—	7.50

2 wins from 4 · placed 3

First time at this course and trip

First time in blinkers

Trainer Declan Carroll: 0/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Zak Wheatley: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 1/3Trip 5f: 0/1Course Stiff: 0/1Class C1: 1/4Field 9–12: 1/3

1 expert tipped this horse

Full profile →Jockey Zak Wheatley Trainer Declan Carroll

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6 (4)

Regional t

8yo · 9-3 · OR 107

493064 J C Lee 6% T E Bethell 2/26 9% / 7% 14.0 14.5

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
06 Sep 26	York	6f	Good To Soft	C1	4/9	2L	15.0
20 Jun 26	Ascot	6f	Good To Firm	C1	10/18	5L	81.0
13 May 26	York	6f	Good	C1	3/13	1¾L	29.0

4 wins from 24 · placed 13

Won 2 of 9 at around this trip

Last ran 27 days ago

Trainer E Bethell: 2/26 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey C Lee: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 2/8Trip 5f: 2/10Course Stiff: 0/5Class C1: 2/15Field 9–12: 1/9

2 experts tipped this horse

Our chance 9% · market 7%

Full profile →Jockey C Lee Trainer E Bethell

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7 (2)

Shagraan (IRE) p

5yo · 9-3 · OR 106

130072 J K Shoemark 14% T C G Cox 6/29 15% / 16% 6.20 6.40

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
19 Sep 26	Newbury	5f 34y	Good To Firm	C1	2/11	nk	12.0
04 Jul 26	Sandown Park	5f 10y	Good	C1	7/9	5¼L	5.00
16 Jun 26	Ascot	5f	Good To Firm	C1	17/26	5¼L	67.0

5 wins from 27 · placed 14

Course winner: 1 win from 3 here

Last ran 14 days ago

Trainer C G Cox: 6/29 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey K Shoemark: 14% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 1/11Trip 5f: 4/19Course Stiff: 2/8Class C1: 2/15Field 9–12: 4/15

4 experts tipped this horse

Our chance 15% · market 16%

Full profile →Jockey K Shoemark Trainer C G Cox

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8 (3)

Tuco Salamanca (IRE) t

4yo · 9-3 · OR 110

161012 J Billy Loughnane 17% T Ollie Sangster 3/20 26% / 26% 3.80 3.85

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
19 Sep 26	Ayr	6f	Heavy	C2	2/24	½L	17.0
08 Aug 26	Ascot	5f	Good To Firm	C2	1/10	—	5.00
01 Aug 26	Goodwood	6f	Good To Firm	C2	14/27	4½L	15.0

8 wins from 21 · placed 11

Course winner: 1 win from 3 here

Last ran 14 days ago

Trainer Ollie Sangster: 3/20 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Billy Loughnane: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 0/3Trip 5f: 1/2Course Stiff: 1/4Class C1: 0/1Field 9–12: 5/9

5 experts tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record

Our chance 26% · market 26%

Full profile →Jockey Billy Loughnane Trainer Ollie Sangster

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9 (8)

Fluorescence Our pick

4yo · 9-1 · OR 104

493141 J D Tudhope 26% T E Bethell 2/26 14% / 13% 7.20 7.60

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
18 Sep 26	Ayr	5f 110y	Soft	C1	1/14	—	4.50
05 Sep 26	Ascot	5f	Good To Firm	C2	4/12	1L	4.50
16 Aug 26	Pontefract	5f 3y	Good To Firm	C2	1/8	—	3.00

5 wins from 14 · placed 8

Won 3 of 9 at around this trip

Last ran 15 days ago

Trainer E Bethell: 2/26 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey D Tudhope: 26% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 0/4Trip 5f: 2/9Course Stiff: 1/3Class C1: 1/4Field 9–12: 3/7

3 experts tipped this horse

Our chance 14% · market 13%

Full profile →Jockey D Tudhope Trainer E Bethell

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10 (5)

First Instinct

4yo · 8-12 · OR 104

090255 J Harry Davies 8% T W J Haggas 10/54 — / 4% 23.0 25.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
19 Sep 26	Newbury	5f 34y	Good To Firm	C1	5/11	3L	7.00
23 Aug 26	Naas	5f 205y	Good	C1	5/8	4½L	2.88
10 Jul 26	York	6f	Good To Firm	C1	2/13	nk	12.0

4 wins from 15 · placed 8

Won 2 of 8 at around this trip

Last ran 14 days ago

Trainer W J Haggas: 10/54 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Harry Davies: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 1/6Trip 5f: 1/8Course Stiff: 0/3Class C1: 2/14Field 9–12: 3/10

Full profile →Jockey Harry Davies Trainer W J Haggas

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11 (7)

Heavenly Heather

5yo · 8-12 · OR 102

426009 J Barry McHugh 22% T Tracy Waggott 0/2 — / 4% 24.0 25.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
18 Sep 26	Ayr	5f 110y	Soft	C1	9/14	7¼L	8.00
21 Aug 26	York	5f	Good To Soft	C1	10/18	4L	81.0
11 Jul 26	York	5f	Good To Firm	C1	12/13	6L	7.50

3 wins from 24 · placed 10

Won 1 of 8 at around this trip

Last ran 15 days ago

Trainer Tracy Waggott: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Barry McHugh: 22% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going Good: 0/3Trip 5f: 1/8Course Stiff: 0/3Class C1: 0/5Field 9–12: 1/6

3 experts tipped this horse

Full profile →Jockey Barry McHugh Trainer Tracy Waggott

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BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed)

Expert confidence?

Betfair Exchange · Win

Track bias · Ascot 5f–6f?

Result

Runners

Expert confidence

Track bias · Ascot 5f–6f