Saturday 3 October › Newmarket › 14:10
HKJC World Pool Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Class 2? Handicap? 1m 4f? Good to firm-good in places · GoingStick 7.3? 3YO plus · 8 ran £25,770 to the winner Overcast
10 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:06 BST · #ab234a
Evanesco looks the pick of three front-runners, with faster rivals short of form.
Confidence?
How the race should unfold Three horses like to lead, so expect a brisk pace from the start. Evanesco is clearly the best of that trio on ability, and the other two are out of form and stepping up in class, so they may tire in a scrap for the lead. That should let Evanesco take over and use its class to hold on.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Evanesco Evanesco is the best of three front-running types here, with course-and-distance form and a recent win behind it.
29% / —
2
Primo Lara Primo Lara is in decent form with a yard that's firing, but jumps up sharply in class after beating weaker fields.
17% / —
3
Tycoon Tycoon returns to a trip that has suited before after a spell over shorter, though the opposition is tougher now.
14% / —
4
Ernst Blofeld Ernst Blofeld has a solid recent run and gets a useful weight break, but has a tricky draw to overcome.
14% / —
5
Sportingsilvermine Sportingsilvermine has faded over three starts running against similar-level rivals and needs to find more.
6% / —
Red flags Evanesco was only a modest fifth here last time as favourite, though it was close. The fast, pace-heavy shape of the race is an assumption rather than a certainty. The other two speed horses could still hold their own if the pace isn't as hot as expected.
Expert confidence? 10 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Newmarket 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 1.64 0.76 0.60 Mid-div — 0.54 — Held up 0.83 1.09 0.66
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 27.62s · Report
How our analyst did
Evanesco 2nd BSP 4.80 −1.00 pts to 1 pt stake
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (4)
1 7 5 3 1 5 J Rowan Scott 15% T C Johnston 6/50 29% / 25% 3.95 4.00
3 wins from 9 · placed 5
Course winner: 1 win from 3 here
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer C Johnston: 6/50 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rowan Scott: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 1/5 Trip 1m1f+: 2/7 Course Galloping: 2/7 Class C2: 1/6 Field ≤ 8: 1/4
5 experts tipped this horse
Our chance 29% · market 25%
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2 (1)
4 1 7 5 5 2 J Harry Vigors (5) 7% T Hamad Al Jehani 0/3 14% / 13% 7.20 7.40
2 wins from 12 · placed 5
Won 1 of 4 at around this trip
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer Hamad Al Jehani: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Harry Vigors: 7% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 2/12 Course Galloping: 0/9 Class C2: 0/8 Field ≤ 8: 0/5
Our chance 14% · market 13%
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3 (8)
3 0 3 2 7 4 J Rossa Ryan 16% T K P De Foy 2/15 14% / 17% 5.80 5.90
1 win from 13 · placed 6
2 runs here without a win
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer K P De Foy: 2/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rossa Ryan: 16% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 1/6 Trip 1m1f+: 1/12 Course Galloping: 0/10 Class C2: 0/7 Field ≤ 8: 0/3
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 14% · market 17%
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4 (2)
5 6 3 1 1 7 J J Mitchell 18% T Lucy Wadham 1/1 — / 4% 24.0 25.0
9 wins from 59 · placed 25
Course winner: 3 wins from 9 here
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer Lucy Wadham: 1/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey J Mitchell: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 6/11 Trip 1m1f+: 6/33 Course Galloping: 9/42 Class C2: 2/22 Field ≤ 8: 5/25
1 expert tipped this horse
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5 (5)
3 1 0 2 6 0 J Marco Ghiani 3% T James Owen 8/51 6% / 11% 9.40 9.60
4 wins from 41 · placed 16
Course winner: 1 win from 2 here
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer James Owen: 8/51 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Marco Ghiani: 3% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 2/8 Trip 1m1f+: 4/34 Course Galloping: 1/21 Class C2: 1/11 Field ≤ 8: 2/9
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 6% · market 11%
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6 (7)
5 1 1 4 1 3 J Saffie Osborne 8% T Jane Chapple-Hyam 1/12 17% / 20% 5.00 5.20
5 wins from 22 · placed 8
Won 2 of 4 at around this trip
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam: 1/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Saffie Osborne: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 1/6 Trip 1m1f+: 5/20 Course Galloping: 2/13 Class C2: 0/4 Field ≤ 8: 2/8
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 17% · market 20%
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7 (6)
1 5 2 0 7 6 J Colin Keane 10% T A M Balding 10/67 — / 7% 15.0 15.5
4 wins from 14 · placed 5
Won 2 of 8 at around this trip
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer A M Balding: 10/67 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Colin Keane: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 4/13 Course Galloping: 0/4 Class C2: 0/3 Field ≤ 8: 3/8
1 expert tipped this horse
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8 (3)
2 0 2 5 2 3 J Kieran O'Neill 11% T William Muir & Chris Grassick 2/23 — / 4% 26.0 28.0
0 wins from 8 · placed 4
4 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 24 days ago
Trainer William Muir & Chris Grassick: 2/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kieran O'Neill: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Firm: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 0/9 Course Galloping: 0/8 Class C2: 0/4 Field ≤ 8: 0/5
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