Friday 2 October › Dundalk › 18:00
Result
Race of the Day
18:00 · Dundalk (IRE)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes (Listed)
Listed? 5f? Standard? 2YO only · 13 ran €30,000 to the winner Light rain
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 10:38 BST · #2b1f8e · updated 17:17 BST (v2)
Controlla's figures and favourable draw make her the pick over a short-priced favourite
Market (Betfair)?
11% 12.5
Confidence?
How the race should unfold Expect a fast pace up front, with two need-to-lead types likely to push each other along over this sharp five furlongs. That could help horses who settle just off the pace. Today's draw bias favours higher stalls, working against the favourite and one of the pace horses, but suits our fancy, who has drawn well.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Big Negotiator Big Negotiator has the strongest form and class in the field, but he's drawn on the wrong side of today's bias and is already short in the betting.
19% / 30%
2
Shimmering Sun Shimmering Sun keeps finishing close up and is in the best form of her career, though there's nothing here to suggest she's being underrated by punters.
14% / 17%
3
Controlla Controlla's figures suggest she's better than her official rating implies, and she's drawn well under today's bias, even though she's drifted a little in the betting.
13% / 11%
4
Grayrobin Grayrobin has won his last two starts and keeps improving, but he may have to share the lead with another fast starter and has a tricky draw.
10% / 9%
Red flags Controlla has drifted in the betting this morning, suggesting others see her chance fading. She's racing again just days after her last win, a quick turnaround. Her settle-off-the-pace style can be a risk in a sharp five-furlong sprint.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Dundalk 5f–6f?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 0.97 1.07 0.95 Mid-div 0.51 1.40 0.55 Held up 0.44 0.70 0.45
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 59.48s · Report
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (4)
8 1 1 2 5 J Gavin Ryan 0% T Miss Kate McGivern 0/4 10% / 9% 10.0 11.5
2 wins from 4 · placed 3
Won 2 of 3 at around this trip
Last ran 29 days ago
Trainer Miss Kate McGivern: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Gavin Ryan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 2/4 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/1
Our chance 10% · market 9%
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2 (13)
2 3 3 1 7 2 J Liam Keniry 0% T Miss Evanna McCutcheon 0/2 — / 3% 29.0 32.0
1 win from 6 · placed 5
Won 1 of 5 at around this trip
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer Miss Evanna McCutcheon: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Liam Keniry: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 1/6 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/1
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3 (9)
1 3 0 3 7 4 J J M Sheridan 15% T Joseph Patrick O'Brien 9/59 — / 3% 28.0 32.0
1 win from 6 · placed 3
Won 1 of 5 at around this trip
First time in cheekpieces
Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 9/59 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey J M Sheridan: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 1/6 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/3 Field 13+: 0/2
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4 (6)
8 3 1 5 J Robbie Colgan 0% T Henry De Bromhead 4/49 — / 0% 160.0 1000.0
1 win from 3 · placed 2
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer Henry De Bromhead: 4/49 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Robbie Colgan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 1/3 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/1 Field 13+: 1/2
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5 (3)
1 0 4 1 0 1 J W J Lee 17% T P Twomey 5/13 19% / 39% 2.52 2.54
3 wins from 8 · placed 5
Won 2 of 5 at around this trip
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer P Twomey: 5/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey W J Lee: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 2/6 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 2/6 Field 13+: 0/3
3 experts tipped this horse
Our chance 19% · market 39%
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6 (5)
2 0 J Andrew Slattery 15% T Andrew Slattery 9/41 — / 1% 130.0 220.0
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
24 Jul 26 Cork 5f Good To Firm — 2/10 shd 12.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 1
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer Andrew Slattery: 9/41 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Andrew Slattery: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 0/2 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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7 (10)
7 5 1 2 6 6 J Luke McAteer 9% T Diego Dias 0/6 — / 2% 50.0 65.0
1 win from 7 · placed 3
Won 1 of 5 at around this trip
Last ran 47 days ago
Trainer Diego Dias: 0/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke McAteer: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 5f: 1/6 Course AW: 0/2 Class C1: 0/5 Field 13+: 0/2
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8 (12)
2 0 5 6 1 J Rowan Scott 15% T Robson Aguiar 1/19 13% / 7% 12.5 14.5
1 win from 4 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 6 days ago
Trainer Robson Aguiar: 1/19 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rowan Scott: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 0/1 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/4 Field 13+: 1/3
Our chance 13% · market 7%
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9 (2)
2 5 6 2 J O J Orr 8% T R A Fahey 3/34 — / 14% 7.00 7.40
0 wins from 4 · placed 2
3 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 16 days ago
Trainer R A Fahey: 3/34 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey O J Orr: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 0/4 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/2
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10 (7)
6 1 J Jamie Powell 0% T J P Murtagh 4/39 — / 1% 60.0 110.0
1 win from 2 · placed 1
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Returns from a 105-day break
Trainer J P Murtagh: 4/39 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jamie Powell: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 1/2 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/1
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11 (1)
4 3 1 5 7 J Wayne Lordan 16% T Josh Halley 0/5 — / 1% 75.0 110.0
1 win from 5 · placed 2
Won 1 of 5 at around this trip
First time in a hood and a tongue strap
Trainer Josh Halley: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Wayne Lordan: 16% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 5f: 1/6 Course AW: 0/2 Class C1: 0/2 Field 13+: 0/1
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12 (8)
1 7 2 0 2 J Ben Coen 13% T Harry Eustace 3/21 14% / 18% 5.50 5.70
1 win from 5 · placed 3
Won 1 of 3 at around this trip
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer Harry Eustace: 3/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ben Coen: 13% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/2 Trip 5f: 2/4 Course AW: 1/2 Class C1: 1/5 Field 13+: 1/3
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 14% · market 18%
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13 (11)
5 3 2 2 J Gary Carroll 14% T G M Lyons 2/14 — / 1% 90.0 120.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 3
4 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 36 days ago
Trainer G M Lyons: 2/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Gary Carroll: 14% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 5f: 0/5 Course AW: 0/1 Class C1: 0/1 Field 13+: 0/2
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