Today › Newcastle › 16:40
Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2)
Class 6? Handicap? 1m 2f 42y? Standard? 3YO plus · 9 runners £4,711 to the winner Partly cloudy
1 expert
Analyst verdict
Locked 10:29 BST · #66ab5f
No clear betting edge emerges in this wide-open Newcastle handicap.
None of the fancied runners offer a clear price edge once recent form and market moves are weighed up, and the rest of the field lacks a standout case. With no selection standing out as worth backing, sitting this race out is the sensible choice.
How the race should unfold Over this longer trip at Newcastle, Bergamo Gold looks the likely pace-setter, with no real rival for an early lead, so she could get a clear, uncontested gallop that often suits runners at this track and distance. Behind her, the market leaders look fairly assessed, making the race hard to split with confidence.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Kameel A consistent, in-the-money type whose price has shortened sharply this morning, though there's little sign the market has got this one wrong.
19% / —
3
Tiberio Force Tiberio Force's price has tumbled too, yet a modest recent profile suggests the market may be putting more faith in this move than the form supports.
13% / —
4
Sandret Sandret's price has shortened as well, but a string of modest finishes and a best effort now some way back make the current price look fair rather than a bargain.
12% / —
5
Typeface Typeface keeps finishing in the frame without quite winning, and with its price drifting out a touch, it sits close to a fair market level.
10% / —
Red flags Some of the biggest price moves look stronger than the recent form of those horses really supports. A handful of runners have seen their prices drift out this morning, a mild but worth-noting warning sign. With no standout on form or class, this is a genuinely open and hard-to-call handicap.
Expert confidence? 1 expert
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Track bias · Newcastle 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Led 1.30 0.81 2.65 Prominent 1.07 0.84 0.99 Mid-div 1.28 1.46 1.17 Held up 0.63 0.57 0.87
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (5)
1 6 8 8 7 6
J P J McDonald 4%
T S England 3/15
12% / 11%
8.80 13.5
7 wins from 49 · placed 20
Course winner: 3 wins from 18 here
Last ran 9 days ago
Trainer S England: 3/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey P J McDonald: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 3/21 Trip 1m1f+: 2/19 Course AW: 3/21 Class C6+: 4/13 Field 9–12: 5/27
Our chance 12% · market 11%
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2 (1)
1 5 0 6 8 4
J D Tudhope 18%
T J Candlish 4/21
— / 15%
6.00 7.80
1 win from 11 · placed 2
Won 1 of 4 at around this trip
Returns from a 79-day break
Trainer J Candlish: 4/21 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Tudhope: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 1/7 Trip 1m1f+: 1/8 Course AW: 1/7 Class C6+: 1/6 Field 9–12: 0/4
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3 (4)
1 9 7 0 5 6
J T Eaves 4%
T K A Ryan 6/41
— / 6%
17.5 34.0
2 wins from 14 · placed 4
Won 1 of 6 at around this trip
Last ran 15 days ago
Trainer K A Ryan: 6/41 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey T Eaves: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 2/9 Course AW: 0/1 Class C6+: 2/8 Field 9–12: 0/7
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4 (6)
5 4 9 4 3
J Jason Hart 15%
T Ivan Furtado 0/23
— / 20%
5.20 5.90
0 wins from 5 · placed 1
2 runs here without a win
Returns from a 120-day break
Trainer Ivan Furtado: 0/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jason Hart: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course AW: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/1
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6 (7)
6 7 8 9 1 3
J Mark Winn 0%
T Simon Whitaker 0/4
13% / 12%
7.60 14.5
3 wins from 47 · placed 14
Won 3 of 24 at around this trip
Last ran 10 days ago
Trainer Simon Whitaker: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Mark Winn: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/10 Trip 1m1f+: 3/44 Course AW: 0/10 Class C6+: 3/41 Field 9–12: 2/25
Our chance 13% · market 12%
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7 (9)
4 4 4 5 5 2
J Oliver Stammers 8%
T Jessica Macey 1/8
19% / 14%
7.00 8.80
2 wins from 21 · placed 5
Course winner: 2 wins from 7 here
Last ran 16 days ago
Trainer Jessica Macey: 1/8 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Oliver Stammers: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 2/11 Trip 1m1f+: 0/10 Course AW: 2/11 Class C6+: 0/11 Field 9–12: 1/11
1 expert tipped this horse
Our chance 19% · market 14%
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8 (2)
6 4 3 3 4 3
J Stevie Donohoe 0%
T Ian Williams 3/28
10% / 19%
5.80 6.80
2 wins from 16 · placed 8
4 runs here without a win
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer Ian Williams: 3/28 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Stevie Donohoe: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/6 Trip 1m1f+: 0/4 Course AW: 0/6 Class C6+: 2/12 Field 9–12: 2/10
Our chance 10% · market 19%
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9 (8)
7 8 9
J Aiden Brookes 0%
T D Thompson 0/3
— / 1%
18.0 1000.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 0
2 runs here without a win
First time in cheekpieces
Trainer D Thompson: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Aiden Brookes: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/0 Course AW: 0/2 Class C6+: 0/0 Field 9–12: 0/2
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10 (3)
9 0 0 0 6 8
J Rhys Elliott (5) 0%
T Gary Rutherford 1/5
— / 3%
34.0 1000.0
0 wins from 10 · placed 0
4 runs here without a win
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer Gary Rutherford: 1/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rhys Elliott: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going AW: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course AW: 0/5 Class C6+: 0/7 Field 9–12: 0/5
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