Thursday 1 October › Bellewstown › 16:30
BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)
Handicap? 1m 4f 77y? Yielding to soft? 3YO plus · 11 ran €6,000 to the winner sunny intervals
2 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:14 BST · #3b9b65 · updated 15:44 BST (v2)
No clear edge in this big handicap field, so we're sitting this one out.
None of the fancied horses offer enough of an edge over their price to make a bet worthwhile here. Maxwell Smart comes closest on the numbers, but a winless record leaves too little to back it with confidence.
How the race should unfold Searcog heads the market after a big gamble but steps down sharply in trip after a spell over hurdles, leaving his form hard to trust. Lily Parr carries top weight in a large field, while Anightaway and Sir Trancealot have both drifted in the betting, clouding their claims.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Searcog Backed heavily into favourite, with the best recent form on offer, but that form came over hurdles and he faces a much shorter trip today, leaving his speed unproven here.
26% / 21%
2
Maxwell Smart Reunited with a jockey who has partnered it to good effect lately, including a close finish, and now steps up to a trip that should suit.
19% / 21%
3
Lily Parr Well supported in the betting, but carries top weight in a field of eleven, a tough ask that has often hurt horses' chances, and it's still without a win.
16% / 25%
4
Anightaway Pairs up again with a jockey who has already won on it, and the trip should suit, though its price has drifted since the morning.
10% / 13%
5
Sir Trancealot A yard and jockey both in good form, but recent runs have faded and its price has also drifted, both pointing the wrong way.
7% / 15%
Red flags Searcog's best form came over hurdles, not on the level, so his shorter trip today is unproven. Lily Parr carries top weight in a field of eleven and has yet to win a race. Anightaway and Sir Trancealot have both drifted in the betting, which often signals fading confidence.
Expert confidence? 2 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Bellewstown 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 0.58 — —
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 46.07s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Searcog — 4th.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (11)
4 4 0 6 0 7
J Robbie Colgan 0%
T Ms Sheila Lavery 0/5
16% / 22%
4.50 4.60
0 wins from 11 · placed 0
5 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 16 days ago
Trainer Ms Sheila Lavery: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Robbie Colgan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/4 Trip 1m1f+: 0/10 Course Tight: 0/5 Field 9–12: 0/3
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 16% · market 22%
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2 (10)
0 0 0 8 1 0
J Jimmy Dalton (7) 0%
T Sean Davis 0/4
10% / 13%
7.60 8.00
1 win from 9 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
First time in cheekpieces and a tongue strap
Trainer Sean Davis: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jimmy Dalton: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 1/7 Course Tight: 1/2 Field 9–12: 0/1
Our chance 10% · market 13%
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4 (5)
6 5 8 3 4 6
J James Ryan 9%
T T G McCourt 2/6
19% / 19%
5.20 5.30
1 win from 36 · placed 10
7 runs here without a win
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer T G McCourt: 2/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey James Ryan: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 1/6 Trip 1m1f+: 2/24 Course Tight: 1/12 Field 9–12: 1/11
Our chance 19% · market 19%
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5 (12)
1 2 4 4 8 4
J Reese Holohan (5) 8%
T Patrick Magee 3/12
26% / 26%
3.85 3.90
1 win from 21 · placed 4
1 run here without a win
Last ran 43 days ago
Trainer Patrick Magee: 3/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Reese Holohan: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 1/10 Course Tight: 0/7 Field 9–12: 0/7
Our chance 26% · market 26%
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6 (2)
7 7 3 5 0 0
J Ben Coen 16%
T J P Murtagh 5/30
7% / 13%
7.20 7.60
0 wins from 6 · placed 1
1 run here without a win
Last ran 31 days ago
Trainer J P Murtagh: 5/30 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Ben Coen: 16% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/7 Course Tight: 0/4 Field 9–12: 0/3
Our chance 7% · market 13%
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7 (8)
0 9 0
J Megan de Souza-Wearen (10) 0%
T P Cluskey 0/2
— / 1%
100.0 1000.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 104-day break
Trainer P Cluskey: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Megan de Souza-Wearen: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/1
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8 (1)
0 0 9 0 0 0
J Luke McAteer 9%
T P Sweeney 2/4
— / 1%
110.0 230.0
0 wins from 7 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 112-day break
Trainer P Sweeney: 2/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke McAteer: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/5 Course Tight: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/3
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9 (9)
0 6 8 0 0 9
J Wesley Joyce 0%
T W M Roper 0/3
— / 2%
40.0 65.0
0 wins from 8 · placed 0
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 13 days ago
Trainer W M Roper: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Wesley Joyce: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/6 Course Tight: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/2
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10 (6)
9 0 5 0 0
J Siobhan Rutledge 0%
T John C McConnell 0/24
— / 1%
70.0 100.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Last ran 3 days ago
Trainer John C McConnell: 0/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Siobhan Rutledge: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/4 Course Tight: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/2
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11 (7)
9 6 8 0 8 0
J Jack Cleary (5) 7%
T V C Ward 0/2
— / 1%
60.0 100.0
1 win from 22 · placed 4
1 run here without a win
Last ran 58 days ago
Trainer V C Ward: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jack Cleary: 7% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/4 Trip 1m1f+: 0/7 Course Tight: 0/7 Field 9–12: 0/7
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12 (4)
0 8 8 0 0 0
J Zoe McMullan (10) 0%
T G A Kingston 0/7
— / 1%
65.0 120.0
5 wins from 64 · placed 15
6 runs here without a win
Last ran 3 days ago
Trainer G A Kingston: 0/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Zoe McMullan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 1/7 Trip 1m1f+: 5/62 Course Tight: 0/14 Field 9–12: 1/12
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