Thursday 1 October › Southwell › 16:00
'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle
Class 5? Handicap? 3m 60y? Good · GoingStick 6.1? 4YO plus · 8 ran £3,248 to the winner Sunny spells
4 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:12 BST · #6cf481 · updated 15:16 BST (v2)
No standout value in this wide-open novices' hurdle, so we're sitting this one out.
For the main contenders, our own assessment of their winning chances lines up closely with what the betting suggests, so there isn't a clear gap to exploit. The one horse rated highest on paper has drifted for good reason, given recent form and jumping concerns, so the market looks right rather than wrong there.
How the race should unfold No one looks certain to take it up in front, leaving the pace open and the race likely to be shaped in the closing stages. The favourite's recent win and steady jockey booking look fair rather than underpriced, while others carry question marks the market already seems to have weighed up.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Crafty Gael The clear favourite on the back of a recent win, with the same jockey on board who has already steered it to good placings.
43% / 37%
2
Daaris A seasoned handicapper who finished strongly last time in similar company, with the yard in decent form, though the sample is small.
13% / 11%
3
Ol Parson Second favourite with a yard in good recent form, but its last run in Ireland was a well-beaten effort that raises doubts.
12% / 13%
4
Jurassic Pet Carries the highest official rating but has drifted in the betting after underwhelming runs and hurdling mistakes, with a long layoff and a quiet yard.
7% / 16%
Red flags No clear pace-setter, so the shape of the race is hard to predict. Ol Parson's last run was a heavily beaten effort, well below its current market position. Jurassic Pet has had hurdling errors and a lengthy absence, adding risk despite its rating.
Expert confidence? 4 experts
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 6m 06.12s · Report
How our analyst did
No bet. Our top-rated contender: Crafty Gael — won.
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1
6 2 1 4 3 0 J Nico de Boinville 0% T Mrs Sara V Bradstock 0/1 7% / 9% 11.5 12.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 198-day break
Trainer Mrs Sara V Bradstock: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Nico de Boinville: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/1 Trip 3m+: 0/1 Class C5: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
Our chance 7% · market 9%
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2
0 0 8 3 2 1 J S Bowen 11% T O Murphy 4/15 43% / 41% 2.40 2.42
1 win from 18 · placed 8
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer O Murphy: 4/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey S Bowen: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 2/4 Trip 3m+: 1/1 Class C5: 2/4 Field ≤ 8: 1/2
4 experts tipped this horse · 4 with a strong record
Our chance 43% · market 41%
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3
P 2 4 9 6 0 J Sam Twiston-Davies 33% T Jack Jones 2/10 12% / 15% 6.80 7.00
0 wins from 3 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 64-day break
Trainer Jack Jones: 2/10 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Sam Twiston-Davies: 33% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/3 Trip 3m+: 0/1 Class C5: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
Our chance 12% · market 15%
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4
3 3 3 4 8 3 J Lee Edwards 0% T Kevin & Lauren Frost 1/13 13% / 12% 8.00 8.20
4 wins from 50 · placed 31
4 runs here without a win
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer Kevin & Lauren Frost: 1/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Lee Edwards: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 1/11 Trip 3m+: 0/1 Class C5: 0/16 Field ≤ 8: 0/21
Our chance 13% · market 12%
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5
P 2 6 7 8 P J Toby Wynne 0% T Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 0/13 — / 5% 19.5 21.0
0 wins from 4 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 27 days ago
Trainer Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero: 0/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Toby Wynne: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/5 Trip 3m+: 0/1 Class C5: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/2
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6
P 7 8 2 7 3 J Brendan Powell 17% T Clare Ellam 0/2 — / 2% 38.0 42.0
0 wins from 9 · placed 3
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 11 days ago
Trainer Clare Ellam: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Brendan Powell: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/6 Trip 3m+: 0/1 Class C5: 0/7 Field ≤ 8: 0/7
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7
4 2 3 5 2 9 J Megan Bevan (7) 0% T Harriet Dickin 0/2 — / 6% 15.0 16.0
0 wins from 11 · placed 3
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer Harriet Dickin: 0/2 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Megan Bevan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/9 Trip 3m+: 0/3 Class C5: 0/9 Field ≤ 8: 0/5
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8
P 0 P 9 F 8 J R P McLernon 0% T N P Mulholland 0/13 — / 9% 10.5 11.0
0 wins from 7 · placed 1
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer N P Mulholland: 0/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey R P McLernon: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Good: 0/4 Trip 3m+: 0/1 Class C5: 0/4 Field ≤ 8: 0/3
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