Thursday 1 October › Salisbury › 16:24
Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1)
Class 4? Handicap? 1m 1f 201y? Good to soft-good in places · GoingStick 7.0? 3YO plus · 12 ran £5,888 to the winner Cloudy with some sun
9 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 09:13 BST · #bcf020 · updated 15:39 BST (v2)
Arbaawy looks overlooked despite facing a stiffer test over a new trip.
Confidence?
Medium · Tier B
How the race should unfold With no standout for an early lead, the pace should stay steady rather than fast, leaving the finish to be decided in the closing stages. Favourite Bnaider looks the most talented but is returning from a break and stepping up in class, so the race looks open for a strong-travelling finisher to prevail late.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Bnaider The most talented horse on recent form, though a long absence and a step up in class add a little uncertainty.
29% / 36%
2
Arbaawy Strong stable form, a jockey already among the winners today and a notable shortening in price all point to this chance being underrated, despite facing a new, longer trip.
16% / 8%
3
Mr Seagull Consistent form and a little in hand of its current mark, though there's no obvious gap between its true form and its price.
14% / 14%
4
Dancing Tiger Won last time out in this grade with the same jockey on board and is racing fit, even if the price has firmed up.
8% / 8%
Red flags Arbaawy is stepping up to a trip she has never raced over before. Her draw position has historically produced a below-average record at this course. Her trainer's form over the past fortnight has cooled compared with the yearly figures, though the sample is small.
Expert confidence? 9 experts
Arbaawy 1 expert · 1 with a strong record
Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Result Official · time 2m 09.42s · Report
How our analyst did
Arbaawy 2nd BSP 11.11 −1.00 pts to 1 pt stake
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: strong good untried poor?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (11)
6 2 2 4 0 1
J Owen Lewis (5) 0%
T Roger Teal 3/15
8% / 9%
11.5 12.0
3 wins from 16 · placed 7
Won 3 of 9 at around this trip
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer Roger Teal: 3/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Owen Lewis: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 2/5 Trip 1m1f+: 3/16 Course Stiff: 1/4 Class C4: 1/7 Field 9–12: 1/6
Our chance 8% · market 9%
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2 (4)
4 4 3 4 1
J Lewis Edmunds 13%
T Harry Charlton 3/24
29% / 25%
3.95 4.00
1 win from 5 · placed 2
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Returns from a 132-day break
Trainer Harry Charlton: 3/24 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Lewis Edmunds: 13% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 1/2 Trip 1m1f+: 1/3 Course Stiff: 0/2 Class C4: 0/4 Field 9–12: 1/5
7 experts tipped this horse · 7 with a strong record
Our chance 29% · market 25%
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4 (1)
2 6 0
J D Egan 10%
T K P De Foy 3/15
— / 6%
16.0 17.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 105-day break
Trainer K P De Foy: 3/15 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Egan: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/4 Course Stiff: 0/2 Class C4: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/2
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5 (13)
2 2 8 5 0 0
J Charles Bishop 5%
T George Baker 1/13
— / 3%
36.0 42.0
0 wins from 8 · placed 2
6 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 32 days ago
Trainer George Baker: 1/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Charles Bishop: 5% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 0/8 Course Stiff: 0/2 Class C4: 0/6 Field 9–12: 0/3
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6 (12)
3 1 8
J Pierre-Louis Jamin 11%
T Harry Eustace 0/19
— / 1%
75.0 95.0
1 win from 3 · placed 2
First time at this course and trip
Returns from a 145-day break
Trainer Harry Eustace: 0/19 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C4: 0/3 Field 9–12: 1/3
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7 (3)
5 3 5
J Tom Marquand 17%
T William Muir & Chris Grassick 1/19
— / 3%
30.0 34.0
0 wins from 3 · placed 1
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 57 days ago
Trainer William Muir & Chris Grassick: 1/19 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Tom Marquand: 17% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/4 Course Stiff: 0/2 Class C4: 0/1 Field 9–12: 0/2
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8 (10)
5 2 1 4
J Callum Hutchinson 9%
T Eve Johnson Houghton 3/36
— / 10%
10.0 10.5
1 win from 4 · placed 2
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Returns from a 195-day break
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton: 3/36 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Callum Hutchinson: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/3 Course Stiff: 0/1 Class C4: 0/2 Field 9–12: 1/3
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9 (6)
2 1 5 9 2 6
J George Bass 0%
T Denis Coakley 0/4
— / 3%
38.0 42.0
2 wins from 17 · placed 6
1 run here without a win
Last ran 49 days ago
Trainer Denis Coakley: 0/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey George Bass: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/5 Course Stiff: 0/2 Class C4: 0/5 Field 9–12: 2/14
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10 (8)
Arbaawy p Our pick 3yo · 9-4 · OR 74
3 3 4 0 3 6
J Colin Keane 6%
T J Butler 1/16
16% / 11%
9.20 9.60
0 wins from 13 · placed 7
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 21 days ago
Trainer J Butler: 1/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Colin Keane: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/4 Trip 1m1f+: 0/3 Course Stiff: 0/4 Class C4: 0/6 Field 9–12: 0/9
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 16% · market 11%
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11 (2)
1 3 4 4 1 7
J Pat Cosgrave 6%
T Jim Boyle 2/9
— / 3%
29.0 32.0
4 wins from 23 · placed 10
Won 2 of 8 at around this trip
Last ran 23 days ago
Trainer Jim Boyle: 2/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Pat Cosgrave: 6% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 2/5 Trip 1m1f+: 5/13 Course Stiff: 1/4 Class C4: 2/5 Field 9–12: 2/12
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12 (5)
4 6 5 0 4 5
J Jason Watson 16%
T H Palmer 3/40
14% / 23%
4.20 4.30
1 win from 11 · placed 2
3 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 20 days ago
Trainer H Palmer: 3/40 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jason Watson: 16% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/4 Trip 1m1f+: 0/5 Course Stiff: 1/5 Class C4: 0/6 Field 9–12: 0/5
Our chance 14% · market 23%
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13 (7)
1 6 7 4 6 6
J Olivia Haines (7) 10%
T Jimmy Fox 0/1
— / 4%
22.0 24.0
5 wins from 34 · placed 17
Won 1 of 9 at around this trip
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer Jimmy Fox: 0/1 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Olivia Haines: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Gd-Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 1/12 Course Stiff: 0/7 Class C4: 0/6 Field 9–12: 2/19
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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