Wednesday 30 September › Bellewstown › 17:35
SIS Maiden
1m 4f 110y? Yielding to soft-soft in places? 3YO plus · 8 ran €7,200 to the winner Mostly overcast
1 expert
Analyst verdict
Locked 10:15 BST · #ce6a1f · updated 16:50 BST (v2)
Fairylike, a well-bred newcomer, is the pick for value in this open Bellewstown maiden.
Market (Betfair)?
16% 8.60
How the race should unfold No obvious pace-setter stands out among these runners, so the tempo could turn messy — likely handing an edge to those who finish strongest. Solness, an experienced jumper new to serious flat racing, has looked competitive without excelling, leaving little margin at a short price. Fairylike, stepping up in trip on testing ground, looks the most interesting improver.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Solness The well-backed favourite has been competitive in solid company on the level, but has already shown enough to leave little margin for backing it here.
45% / 46%
2
Mississippi Shine A first-time runner from a strong training and riding combination, though the market has already shortened up to reflect that promise.
34% / 37%
3
Fairylike A well-bred newcomer who ran a competent debut race and could improve further for the step up in trip on this softer ground.
14% / 16%
4
Julie's Moon Switching from jumps to the level and dropping sharply in trip, which makes this one very hard to assess with any confidence.
3% / 0%
Red flags Fairylike's price drifted out through the day rather than being backed in, a sign the market isn't fully convinced. Fairylike has no experience yet at this trip or on this ground. The favourite's own underlying assessment is actually a touch below its market price, so there's little value in backing it.
Expert confidence? 1 expert
Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Bellewstown 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 0.58 — —
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 51.27s · Report
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
2 (7)
4 2 J J M Sheridan 14% T Joseph Patrick O'Brien 8/56 45% / 55% 1.79 1.80
8 wins from 28 · placed 18
2 runs at around this trip without a win
Last ran 46 days ago
Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 8/56 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey J M Sheridan: 14% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 2/7 Trip 1m1f+: 1/3 Course Tight: 4/9 Field ≤ 8: 6/19
Our chance 45% · market 55%
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3 (3)
0 J Siobhan Rutledge 9% T H Rogers 0/6 — / 0% 280.0 1000.0
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer H Rogers: 0/6 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Siobhan Rutledge: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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4 (6)
0 J James Ryan 9% T T G McCourt 2/12 — / 0% 1000.0 —
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer T G McCourt: 2/12 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey James Ryan: 9% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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6 (8)
4 J Colin Keane 10% T G M Lyons 2/13 34% / 32% 3.15 3.20
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer G M Lyons: 2/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Colin Keane: 10% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 34% · market 32%
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8 (1)
9 0 J Jessica O'Gorman (7) 0% T P G Fahey 0/3 — / 0% 330.0 1000.0
0 wins from 2 · placed 0
1 run at around this trip without a win
Last ran 9 days ago
Trainer P G Fahey: 0/3 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jessica O'Gorman: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/2 Course Tight: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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9 (4)
0 J Zoe McMullan (10) 0% T G A Kingston 0/5 — / 0% 1000.0 —
No previous runs on our record.
First run on our record
Trainer G A Kingston: 0/5 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Zoe McMullan: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
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10 (2)
4 0 J Wayne Lordan 18% T A P O'Brien 10/45 14% / 12% 8.60 9.20
Date Course Dist Going Class Pos Beaten SP
14 Aug 26 Cork 1m 2f 90y Good — 4/11 3¼L 7.00
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 28 days ago
Trainer A P O'Brien: 10/45 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Wayne Lordan: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/2 Course Tight: 0/1 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
Our chance 14% · market 12%
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11 (9)
6 J Luke McAteer 11% T Ms Margaret Mullins 2/7 3% / 1% 90.0 180.0
0 wins from 1 · placed 0
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 10 days ago
Trainer Ms Margaret Mullins: 2/7 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Luke McAteer: 11% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Tight: 0/2 Field ≤ 8: 0/1
Our chance 3% · market 1%
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