Result Race of the Day 19:30 · Kempton Park

ebfstallions.com Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

Class 26fStandard to slow3YO plus · 6 ran£13,400 to the winnerMostly sunny 8 experts

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Analyst verdict Locked 10:17 BST · #d7cca3 · updated 18:44 BST (v2)

Mitbaahy's steady form stands out as the pick in a wide-open six-runner sprint.

Our chance

14% 1 in 7

Market (Betfair)

8% 11.5

Worth it down to

7.20

Confidence

Medium · Tier B

How the race should unfoldWith only six runners and no obvious front-runner, this looks likely to be run at an even gallop rather than dominated by speed on the pace. The two market favourites both carry question marks, leaving room for a horse whose recent form has been quietly overlooked to take the race.

Kind Of Blue

Kind Of Blue has strong form and a top jockey booking, but the latest run was below par and support has cooled.

31% / 42%

Wise Approach

Wise Approach is in good form with a yard and jockey combination that has clicked before, but that is already well known and priced in.

29% / 27%

Mitbaahy

Mitbaahy has kept form close to his best and has twice finished within a whisker of the winner in strong company.

14% / 8%

Spy Chief

Spy Chief could benefit from a lack of a clear pace in this field, though he has shown signs of racing too keenly and mixed results.

11% / 8%

Montassib

Montassib returns from a lengthy break, a gap that has not historically suited him.

7% / 11%

Red flags

Mitbaahy may be held up for a late run, which can be tricky to time in such a small field.His yard's recent winning record has been modest, so they are not in their strongest vein of form.The stable has not yet had a winner on the day of this race.

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Expert confidence

8 experts

Kind Of Blue

4 experts · 4 with a strong record

Wise Approach (IRE)

2 experts · 2 with a strong record

Heathcliff (GB)

1 expert · 1 with a strong record

Mitbaahy (IRE)

1 expert · 1 with a strong record

Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.

Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.

Betfair Exchange · Win

Kind Of Blue1.951.96

Wise Approach (IRE)4.604.70

Spy Chief10.511.0

Mitbaahy (IRE)11.512.0

Montassib (GB)12.013.0

Heathcliff (GB)60.075.0

Mitbaahy (IRE): 9.40 at 18:30 → 11.5 at 19:29.

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Track bias · Kempton Park 5f–6f

Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons

Low drawMiddleHigh draw Led2.042.65—Prominent1.050.950.70Mid-div1.130.660.81Held up0.620.480.78

Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.

Result

Official · time 1m 12.28s · Report

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Beaten	SP	BSP
1	Kind Of Blue	James Doyle	J R Fanshawe	—	1.80	1.91
2	Mitbaahy (IRE) Our pick	Tom Marquand	Charles Hills	¾L	10.0	12.0
3	Montassib (GB)	Cieren Fallon	W J Haggas	1L	9.50	11.0
4	Wise Approach (IRE)	W Buick	C Appleby	1¾L	4.00	5.60
5	Spy Chief	R Havlin	J & T Gosden	2L	9.50	10.6
6	Heathcliff (GB)	Daniel Muscutt	J R Fanshawe	7L	41.0	57.8

How our analyst did

Mitbaahy2ndBSP 12.00−1.00 pts to 1 pt stake

Runners

Form, oldest → latest Suitability: strong good untried poor Bookmaker prices — coming soon

1 (5)

Heathcliff (GB)

5yo · 9-9 · OR 102

124704 J Daniel Muscutt 19% T J R Fanshawe 5/14 — / 1% 60.0 75.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
27 Jun 26	Newcastle	6f	Standard To Slow	C1	4/11	4¼L	21.0
20 Jun 26	Ascot	6f	Good To Firm	C2	21/27	10L	81.0
09 May 26	Haydock Park	7f	Good	C1	7/11	12¾L	67.0

5 wins from 23 · placed 13

Course winner: 3 wins from 10 here

Returns from a 95-day break

Trainer J R Fanshawe: 5/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Daniel Muscutt: 19% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 5/22Trip 6f: 1/15Course AW: 5/22Class C2: 2/14Field ≤ 8: 1/6

1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record

Full profile →Jockey Daniel Muscutt Trainer J R Fanshawe

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2 (1)

Kind Of Blue

5yo · 9-5 · OR 111

320205 J James Doyle 20% T J R Fanshawe 5/14 31% / 51% 1.95 1.96

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
05 Sep 26	Haydock Park	6f	Soft	C1	5/8	10¼L	5.00
20 Jun 26	Ascot	6f	Good To Firm	C1	11/18	5¼L	19.0
13 May 26	York	6f	Good	C1	2/13	1L	5.00

3 wins from 14 · placed 9

Course winner: 1 win from 1 here

Last ran 25 days ago

Trainer J R Fanshawe: 5/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey James Doyle: 20% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 2/3Trip 6f: 4/15Course AW: 2/3Class C2: 1/1Field ≤ 8: 2/3

4 experts tipped this horse · 4 with a strong record

Our chance 31% · market 51%

Full profile →Jockey James Doyle Trainer J R Fanshawe

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3 (4)

Mitbaahy (IRE) t Our pick

7yo · 9-5 · OR 106

205239 J Tom Marquand 15% T Charles Hills 1/22 14% / 9% 11.5 12.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
01 Aug 26	Goodwood	6f	Good To Firm	C2	3/27	nk	15.0
18 Jul 26	Newbury	6f	Good To Firm	C1	2/7	1¼L	17.0
20 Jun 26	Ascot	6f	Good To Firm	C2	5/27	2½L	51.0

6 wins from 26 · placed 13

Won 2 of 13 at around this trip

Last ran 31 days ago

Trainer Charles Hills: 1/22 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Tom Marquand: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/2Trip 6f: 2/14Course AW: 0/2Class C2: 1/4Field ≤ 8: 3/9

1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record

Our chance 14% · market 9%

Full profile →Jockey Tom Marquand Trainer Charles Hills

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4 (2)

Montassib (GB)

8yo · 9-5 · OR 105

537545 J Cieren Fallon 8% T W J Haggas 10/54 7% / 8% 12.0 13.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
23 May 26	Curragh	6f	Good	C1	5/10	4¼L	5.50
28 Mar 26	Doncaster	6f	Good To Soft	C1	4/12	4¼L	3.75
08 Nov 25	Doncaster	6f	Heavy	C1	5/13	4¾L	3.25

8 wins from 25 · placed 10

Won 5 of 12 at around this trip

Returns from a 130-day break

Trainer W J Haggas: 10/54 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey Cieren Fallon: 8% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 2/3Trip 6f: 5/13Course AW: 2/3Class C2: 3/14Field ≤ 8: 4/5

Our chance 7% · market 8%

Full profile →Jockey Cieren Fallon Trainer W J Haggas

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5 (3)

Spy Chief h

4yo · 9-5 · OR 107

638206 J R Havlin 30% T J & T Gosden 12/33 11% / 10% 10.5 11.0

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
18 Sep 26	Newbury	7f	Good	C1	6/8	6¾L	3.00
20 Jun 26	Ascot	6f	Good To Firm	C2	25/27	20¾L	6.00
23 May 26	Salisbury	6f	Good	C1	2/10	nk	6.00

1 win from 11 · placed 5

Won 1 of 6 at around this trip

Last ran 12 days ago

Trainer J & T Gosden: 12/33 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey R Havlin: 30% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/3Trip 6f: 1/7Course AW: 0/3Class C2: 0/2Field ≤ 8: 1/4

Our chance 11% · market 10%

Full profile →Jockey R Havlin Trainer J & T Gosden

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6 (6)

Wise Approach (IRE) p

3yo · 9-3 · OR 112

154074 J W Buick 30% T C Appleby 7/23 29% / 21% 4.60 4.70

Date	Course	Dist	Going	Class	Pos	Beaten	SP
12 Sep 26	Doncaster	7f 6y	Good	C1	4/8	2½L	13.0
19 Jun 26	Ascot	6f	Good To Firm	C1	22/22	43¼L	15.0
16 May 26	Newbury	6f	Good	C1	4/10	3L	3.50

3 wins from 9 · placed 4

Won 2 of 6 at around this trip

Last ran 18 days ago

Trainer C Appleby: 7/23 winners from runners in the last 14 days

Jockey W Buick: 30% strike rate in the last 14 days

Suits today Going AW: 0/1Trip 6f: 2/7Course AW: 0/1Class C2: 1/3Field ≤ 8: 1/4

2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record

Our chance 29% · market 21%

Full profile →Jockey W Buick Trainer C Appleby

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ebfstallions.com Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

Expert confidence?

Betfair Exchange · Win

Track bias · Kempton Park 5f–6f?

Result

Runners

Expert confidence

Track bias · Kempton Park 5f–6f