Racing Verdict
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Result Race of the Day 13:38 · Musselburgh

British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Class 45f 1yGood to soft-good in places · GoingStick 6.72YO only · 3 ran£5,940 to the winnerMostly sunny 5 experts
Analyst verdict Locked 08:08 BST · #57e694 · updated 12:51 BST (v2)
Sod Hall Lane is the one to beat, but Sable Noir looks overpriced for this small field
Our chance
17% 1 in 6
Market (Betfair)
14% 8.40
Worth it down to
5.90
Confidence
Medium · Tier B
How the race should unfoldWith just three two-year-olds and no obvious pace-setter, expect a steady gallop that turns into a sprint for home. Sod Hall Lane should be prominent throughout, while Sable Noir needs to find extra late to close the gap from last time out.
1
Sod Hall Lane
The clear favourite, having won last time out after finishing close up in a stronger race over this course and distance previously.
80% / 85%
2
Sable Noir
Ran a close third over this course and distance last time at a big price, and looks capable of going close again.
17% / 14%
3
Just For Monty
The obvious outsider here, with poor recent form and a lengthy, unclear break since her last run.
2% / 1%
Red flags
Sable Noir has only had two career starts, so there isn't much to go onShe also has a new jockey riding her for the first timeHer last run showed she may have needed more of a gap to find her stride
Report a problem 18+ · Bet responsibly

Expert confidence

5 experts
Sod Hall Lane (IRE)
5 experts · 5 with a strong record
Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.

Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.

Betfair Exchange · Win

Just For Monty100.0140.0
Sable Noir (IRE): 6.80 at 12:38 → 8.80 at 13:37.
Open market on Betfair ↗ Wrong price? Report it

Track bias · Musselburgh 5f–6f

Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low drawMiddleHigh draw Prominent1.611.390.72Held up0.530.83—
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.

Result

Official · time 1m 00.58s · Report
PosHorseJockeyTrainerBeatenSPBSP
1Sable Noir (IRE) Our pickKevin StottK A Ryan—6.007.87
2Sod Hall Lane (IRE)Zak WheatleyDeclan Carroll2L1.111.18
3Just For MontyJason HartK Scott19L51.0150.0
How our analyst did
Sable NoirWonBSP 7.87+6.53 pts to 1 pt stake

Runners

Form, oldest → latest Suitability: strong good untried poor Bookmaker prices — coming soon
1 (3)
Sod Hall Lane (IRE)
2yo · 9-11 · OR 84
21 J Zak Wheatley 0% T Declan Carroll 0/16 80% / 88% 1.14 1.15
DateCourseDistGoingClassPosBeatenSP
02 Sep 26Hamilton Park5f 7ySoftC41/7—2.38
07 Aug 26Musselburgh5f 1yGoodC22/51¾L21.0
1 win from 2 · placed 2
Won 1 of 2 at around this trip
Last ran 28 days ago
Trainer Declan Carroll: 0/16 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Zak Wheatley: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today Going Gd-Soft: 0/1Trip 5f: 1/3Course Tight: 0/2Class C4: 1/2Field ≤ 8: 1/3
5 experts tipped this horse · 5 with a strong record
Our chance 80% · market 88%
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2 (2)
Just For Monty
2yo · 9-4
56 J Jason Hart 12% T K Scott 1/13 2% / 1% 100.0 140.0
DateCourseDistGoingClassPosBeatenSP
30 Jun 26Musselburgh5f 1yGoodC46/614¼L51.0
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoftC45/615½L51.0
0 wins from 2 · placed 0
1 run here without a win
Returns from a 92-day break
Trainer K Scott: 1/13 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jason Hart: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today Going Gd-Soft: 0/1Trip 5f: 0/2Course Tight: 0/2Class C4: 0/3Field ≤ 8: 0/3
Our chance 2% · market 1%
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3 (1)
Sable Noir (IRE) h Our pick
2yo · 8-13
83 J Kevin Stott 12% T K A Ryan 4/28 17% / 11% 8.40 8.80
DateCourseDistGoingClassPosBeatenSP
24 Aug 26Musselburgh5f 1yGoodC43/81L81.0
22 Jun 26Catterick5fGood To FirmC48/824¼L34.0
0 wins from 2 · placed 1
1 run here without a win
Last ran 37 days ago
Trainer K A Ryan: 4/28 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Kevin Stott: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today Going Gd-Soft: 1/1Trip 5f: 1/3Course Tight: 1/3Class C4: 1/3Field ≤ 8: 1/3
Our chance 17% · market 11%
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