Tuesday 29 September › Ayr › 15:08
Result
Race of the Day
15:08 · Ayr
Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Class 4? Handicap? 1m 2f? Soft-heavy in places · GoingStick 7.0? 3YO plus · 9 ran £5,234 to the winner cloudy
12 experts
Analyst verdict
Locked 08:56 BST · #79d8c4 · updated 14:23 BST (v2)
Star Cast and Krissy both look better than their market price suggests.
Market (Betfair)?
23% 4.80
Confidence?
Also backing: Krissy at 7.20 or bigger
How the race should unfold Krissy looks the only confirmed pace-setter in this soft-to-heavy 1m2f handicap at Ayr, so she should get an uncontested lead and dictate a steady gallop. Star Cast, dropping in class with course and distance form, looks best placed to challenge from off the pace, with the race likely settled in the final furlong as the front-runners are hunted down.
# Contender and why we differ from the market Ours ■ vs market ■ Win chance
1
Star Cast A class-dropper with course and distance form at this track, and a jockey who has won on her here before.
23% / 23%
2
Keep An Eye On It The market's most fancied runner, but she steps up sharply in distance for the first time and faces a tough draw today.
16% / 17%
3
Krissy Likely the only front-runner in this field, with a win over today's distance already, and a jockey who has gone close on her before.
14% / 7%
4
Tipsy Tiger Consistently competitive and clearly at home over this trip, though nothing new stands out to lift her chances today.
12% / 16%
5
Mehmas Champion Won last time out, but her price has drifted since this morning and her handicap mark has already been raised to reflect that win.
9% / 15%
Red flags Star Cast is racing off a career-high handicap mark, leaving little obvious room for further improvement. Krissy's most recent run was below her best form. Krissy is having a very quick turnaround between runs, so how she'll respond is uncertain.
Expert confidence? 12 experts
Our analyst and the proven experts disagree: the experts lean elsewhere.
Dots weigh how many experts tipped a horse by each expert's long-term record. We track public tipsters and never show names.
Track bias · Ayr 1m 2f+?
Winners vs expected (A/E), 10+ runners, last 3 seasons
Low draw Middle High draw
Prominent 1.00 0.69 1.20 Mid-div 0.94 1.39 — Held up — 1.07 0.27
Above 1.00 = wins more often than the market expects.
Result Official · time 2m 17.23s · Report
How our analyst did
Krissy 7th BSP 9.20 −1.00 pts to 1 pt stake
Runners
Form, oldest → latest?
Suitability: ?
Bookmaker prices — coming soon
No (draw) Horse · age · weight · OR Form Jockey · 14 days Trainer · 14 days Experts Ours / market Back / Lay
1 (3)
4 6 9 0 0 1 J D Tudhope 26% T D O'Meara 4/43 9% / 9% 11.0 11.5
1 win from 5 · placed 1
Won 1 of 1 at around this trip
Last ran 26 days ago
Trainer D O'Meara: 4/43 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Tudhope: 26% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 1/2 Trip 1m1f+: 1/3 Course Galloping: 1/4 Class C4: 1/5 Field 9–12: 0/5
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
Our chance 9% · market 9%
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2 (7)
2 1 1 2 3 4 J Jake Dickson (5) 15% T G Tutty 2/14 23% / 20% 4.80 4.90
6 wins from 27 · placed 14
Course winner: 1 win from 3 here
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer G Tutty: 2/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jake Dickson: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 2/8 Trip 1m1f+: 6/22 Course Galloping: 1/8 Class C4: 2/6 Field 9–12: 5/15
2 experts tipped this horse · 2 with a strong record
Our chance 23% · market 20%
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3 (6)
5 2 4 2 3 0 J A Mullen 15% T I Jardine 6/27 — / 4% 22.0 23.0
0 wins from 11 · placed 6
1 run here without a win
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer I Jardine: 6/27 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey A Mullen: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/3 Trip 1m1f+: 0/8 Course Galloping: 0/6 Class C4: 0/2 Field 9–12: 0/5
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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4 (5)
2 6 1 8 9 4 J Rowan Scott 15% T E A L Dunlop 2/20 — / 5% 18.5 19.5
2 wins from 16 · placed 4
Won 2 of 10 at around this trip
Last ran 14 days ago
Trainer E A L Dunlop: 2/20 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rowan Scott: 15% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 1/4 Trip 1m1f+: 2/13 Course Galloping: 0/9 Class C4: 1/10 Field 9–12: 0/11
1 expert tipped this horse · 1 with a strong record
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5 (4)
1 4 9 2 2 5 J Rhys Elliott (5) 0% T J S Goldie 1/34 14% / 9% 11.0 11.5
6 wins from 25 · placed 11
Won 1 of 6 at around this trip
First time in cheekpieces
Trainer J S Goldie: 1/34 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Rhys Elliott: 0% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/5 Trip 1m1f+: 6/23 Course Galloping: 0/3 Class C4: 0/6 Field 9–12: 4/13
Our chance 14% · market 9%
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6 (2)
6 1 3 0 4 9 J Jason Hart 12% T John & Sean Quinn 2/14 — / 9% 10.5 11.5
2 wins from 11 · placed 3
First time at this course and trip
Last ran 12 days ago
Trainer John & Sean Quinn: 2/14 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Jason Hart: 12% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/2 Trip 1m1f+: 0/2 Course Galloping: 0/4 Class C4: 0/8 Field 9–12: 1/4
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7 (8)
7 2 3 4 6 4 J Shane Gray 40% T William Stone 2/4 12% / 17% 5.80 5.90
2 wins from 21 · placed 8
Won 1 of 12 at around this trip
Last ran 18 days ago
Trainer William Stone: 2/4 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey Shane Gray: 40% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 2/8 Trip 1m1f+: 3/20 Course Galloping: 3/15 Class C4: 2/16 Field 9–12: 3/13
3 experts tipped this horse · 3 with a strong record
Our chance 12% · market 17%
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8 (9)
1 2 2 6 1 8 J D Allan 18% T T D Easterby 15/83 — / 3% 32.0 36.0
5 wins from 47 · placed 14
Won 2 of 5 at around this trip
Last ran 17 days ago
Trainer T D Easterby: 15/83 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Allan: 18% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 3/16 Trip 1m1f+: 2/12 Course Galloping: 1/19 Class C4: 1/14 Field 9–12: 2/16
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9 (1)
4 5 2 3 1 2 J D Nolan 4% T Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood 0/9 16% / 23% 4.30 4.40
1 win from 7 · placed 4
Course winner: 1 win from 1 here
Last ran 41 days ago
Trainer Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood: 0/9 winners from runners in the last 14 days
Jockey D Nolan: 4% strike rate in the last 14 days
Suits today?
Going Soft: 0/1 Trip 1m1f+: 0/1 Course Galloping: 1/4 Class C4: 0/2 Field 9–12: 1/5
4 experts tipped this horse · 4 with a strong record
Our chance 16% · market 23%
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